2026 forecast · Ohio Secretary Of State
Allison Russo and Robert Sprague are in a toss up for Ohio's secretary of state.
Allison Russo vs Robert Sprague, an open seat. The model has Russo ahead by 1.1 points, with a 58 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel D +1.1Updated October 22, 2026
Allison Russo
Democrat
48.5%
2,313,027 projected votes
Robert Sprague
Republican
47.3%
2,258,664 projected votes
58%Russo
42%Sprague
Russo slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Russo wins about 58 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Russo +681,485 net votes from 10 countiesStatewide D +1.1, a 54,359 vote marginSprague +627,126 net votes from 78 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,771,682 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Allison Russo D | 2,313,027 | 48.5% |
| Robert Sprague R | 2,258,664 | 47.3% |
| Tom Pruss | 199,991 | 4.2% |
| Total | 4,771,682 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
88 counties| County | Russo | Sprague | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,313,026 | 2,258,667 | 199,987 | 4,771,680 | D +1.1 |
| Franklin County | 353,995 | 132,773 | 21,294 | 508,062 | D +43.5 |
| Cuyahoga County | 354,865 | 121,399 | 20,834 | 497,098 | D +47.0 |
| Hamilton County | 211,981 | 121,882 | 14,605 | 348,468 | D +25.9 |
| Summit County | 135,264 | 83,440 | 9,567 | 228,271 | D +22.7 |
| Montgomery County | 112,454 | 92,456 | 8,964 | 213,874 | D +9.3 |
| Lucas County | 97,234 | 55,068 | 6,662 | 158,964 | D +26.5 |
| Stark County | 65,048 | 80,383 | 6,361 | 151,792 | R +10.1 |
| Butler County | 57,878 | 85,779 | 6,285 | 149,942 | R +18.6 |
| Lorain County | 66,070 | 57,746 | 5,416 | 129,232 | D +6.4 |
| Warren County | 41,137 | 67,434 | 4,749 | 113,320 | R +23.2 |
| Delaware County | 52,516 | 52,307 | 4,585 | 109,408 | D +0.2 |
| Lake County | 47,417 | 53,407 | 4,410 | 105,234 | R +5.7 |
| Mahoning County | 49,447 | 41,947 | 3,998 | 95,392 | D +7.9 |
| Clermont County | 29,941 | 57,571 | 3,828 | 91,340 | R +30.3 |
| Medina County | 36,558 | 46,371 | 3,629 | 86,558 | R +11.3 |
| Trumbull County | 37,971 | 39,566 | 3,391 | 80,928 | R +2.0 |
| Licking County | 28,702 | 44,037 | 3,182 | 75,921 | R +20.2 |
| Greene County | 30,042 | 41,783 | 3,142 | 74,967 | R +15.7 |
| Portage County | 32,338 | 33,772 | 2,892 | 69,002 | R +2.1 |
| Fairfield County | 27,415 | 37,712 | 2,849 | 67,976 | R +15.2 |
| Wood County | 25,853 | 27,250 | 2,323 | 55,426 | R +2.5 |
| Clark County | 20,663 | 28,146 | 2,135 | 50,944 | R +14.7 |
| Richland County | 14,707 | 31,299 | 2,012 | 48,018 | R +34.5 |
| Miami County | 13,328 | 31,995 | 1,983 | 47,306 | R +39.5 |
| Geauga County | 18,521 | 25,662 | 1,933 | 46,116 | R +15.5 |
| Wayne County | 14,682 | 27,107 | 1,828 | 43,617 | R +28.5 |
| Columbiana County | 11,888 | 25,884 | 1,652 | 39,424 | R +35.5 |
| Allen County | 10,819 | 25,215 | 1,576 | 37,610 | R +38.3 |
| Ashtabula County | 14,603 | 19,181 | 1,478 | 35,262 | R +13.0 |
| Tuscarawas County | 11,671 | 21,487 | 1,450 | 34,608 | R +28.4 |
| Erie County | 15,572 | 15,608 | 1,364 | 32,544 | R +0.1 |
| Muskingum County | 9,991 | 20,291 | 1,324 | 31,606 | R +32.6 |
| Hancock County | 9,520 | 20,034 | 1,293 | 30,847 | R +34.1 |
| Union County | 10,221 | 17,802 | 1,226 | 29,249 | R +25.9 |
| Ross County | 9,562 | 16,013 | 1,119 | 26,694 | R +24.2 |
| Knox County | 7,281 | 17,653 | 1,090 | 26,024 | R +39.9 |
| Jefferson County | 8,883 | 15,822 | 1,081 | 25,786 | R +26.9 |
| Belmont County | 8,610 | 15,967 | 1,075 | 25,652 | R +28.7 |
| Washington County | 8,246 | 15,905 | 1,056 | 25,207 | R +30.4 |
| Scioto County | 8,154 | 15,969 | 1,055 | 25,178 | R +31.0 |
| Sandusky County | 8,907 | 14,047 | 1,004 | 23,958 | R +21.5 |
| Pickaway County | 6,833 | 15,362 | 971 | 23,166 | R +36.8 |
| Athens County | 14,270 | 7,593 | 957 | 22,820 | D +29.3 |
| Marion County | 7,249 | 14,261 | 942 | 22,452 | R +31.2 |
| Darke County | 3,716 | 17,027 | 907 | 21,650 | R +61.5 |
| Huron County | 6,519 | 13,938 | 895 | 21,352 | R +34.8 |
| Ashland County | 5,360 | 14,865 | 885 | 21,110 | R +45.0 |
| Lawrence County | 6,316 | 13,548 | 869 | 20,733 | R +34.9 |
| Seneca County | 6,981 | 12,775 | 864 | 20,620 | R +28.1 |
| Auglaize County | 3,726 | 15,951 | 861 | 20,538 | R +59.5 |
| Shelby County | 3,527 | 15,859 | 848 | 20,234 | R +61.0 |
| Ottawa County | 8,158 | 10,843 | 831 | 19,832 | R +13.5 |
| Mercer County | 3,200 | 15,119 | 801 | 19,120 | R +62.3 |
| Logan County | 3,994 | 13,800 | 778 | 18,572 | R +52.8 |
| Fulton County | 5,523 | 11,665 | 751 | 17,939 | R +34.2 |
| Preble County | 3,813 | 12,811 | 728 | 17,352 | R +51.9 |
| Madison County | 5,280 | 10,751 | 701 | 16,732 | R +32.7 |
| Brown County | 4,082 | 11,846 | 696 | 16,624 | R +46.7 |
| Crawford County | 4,087 | 11,609 | 687 | 16,383 | R +45.9 |
| Clinton County | 4,064 | 11,557 | 683 | 16,304 | R +46.0 |
| Putnam County | 2,528 | 13,050 | 682 | 16,260 | R +64.7 |
| Champaign County | 4,554 | 10,916 | 677 | 16,147 | R +39.4 |
| Highland County | 3,292 | 11,627 | 653 | 15,572 | R +53.5 |
| Defiance County | 4,596 | 9,986 | 638 | 15,220 | R +35.4 |
| Morrow County | 3,793 | 10,480 | 623 | 14,896 | R +44.9 |
| Williams County | 3,710 | 10,181 | 608 | 14,499 | R +44.6 |
| Guernsey County | 3,896 | 9,510 | 586 | 13,992 | R +40.1 |
| Perry County | 3,935 | 8,958 | 564 | 13,457 | R +37.3 |
| Coshocton County | 3,455 | 9,168 | 552 | 13,175 | R +43.4 |
| Henry County | 2,895 | 8,279 | 490 | 11,664 | R +46.2 |
| Van Wert County | 2,438 | 8,602 | 483 | 11,523 | R +53.5 |
| Carroll County | 3,016 | 7,648 | 466 | 11,130 | R +41.6 |
| Jackson County | 2,908 | 7,627 | 461 | 10,996 | R +42.9 |
| Hocking County | 3,685 | 6,570 | 448 | 10,703 | R +26.9 |
| Holmes County | 1,609 | 8,569 | 446 | 10,624 | R +65.5 |
| Hardin County | 2,682 | 7,455 | 443 | 10,580 | R +45.1 |
| Gallia County | 2,577 | 7,535 | 442 | 10,554 | R +47.0 |
| Adams County | 2,148 | 7,407 | 419 | 9,974 | R +52.7 |
| Fayette County | 2,272 | 7,282 | 418 | 9,972 | R +50.2 |
| Pike County | 2,861 | 6,179 | 396 | 9,436 | R +35.2 |
| Wyandot County | 2,370 | 6,289 | 379 | 9,038 | R +43.4 |
| Meigs County | 2,237 | 5,772 | 350 | 8,359 | R +42.3 |
| Paulding County | 1,760 | 5,261 | 307 | 7,328 | R +47.8 |
| Harrison County | 1,621 | 3,825 | 238 | 5,684 | R +38.8 |
| Morgan County | 1,494 | 3,690 | 227 | 5,411 | R +40.6 |
| Monroe County | 1,564 | 3,590 | 226 | 5,380 | R +37.6 |
| Noble County | 1,227 | 3,722 | 217 | 5,166 | R +48.3 |
| Vinton County | 1,250 | 3,139 | 193 | 4,582 | R +41.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +8.5 and R +6.2. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +3.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +3.4 |
| Blend of every leg | D +2.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +1.2 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +1.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +8.5 and R +6.2.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Russo | Sprague | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||