2026 forecast · Ohio Justice Of The Supreme Court, Seat Held By Daniel R. Hawkins
Marilyn Zayas and Daniel R. Hawkins are in a toss up for Ohio's justice of the supreme court, seat held by daniel r. hawkins.
Marilyn Zayas vs Daniel R. Hawkins, with Daniel R. Hawkins running again. The model has Hawkins ahead by 0.7 points, with a 55 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel R +0.7Updated October 22, 2026
Marilyn Zayas
Democrat
48.8%
2,330,421 projected votes
Daniel R. Hawkins
Republican
49.5%
2,362,447 projected votes
55%Hawkins
45%Zayas
Hawkins slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Hawkins wins about 55 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Zayas +669,847 net votes from 9 countiesStatewide R +0.7, a 32,019 vote marginHawkins +701,866 net votes from 79 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,771,682 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel R. Hawkins R | 2,362,447 | 49.5% |
| Marilyn Zayas D | 2,330,421 | 48.8% |
| Other candidates | 78,813 | 1.7% |
| Total | 4,771,682 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
88 counties| County | Zayas | Hawkins | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,330,425 | 2,362,444 | 78,811 | 4,771,680 | R +0.7 |
| Franklin County | 360,654 | 139,017 | 8,391 | 508,062 | D +43.6 |
| Cuyahoga County | 362,360 | 126,528 | 8,210 | 497,098 | D +47.4 |
| Hamilton County | 216,097 | 126,615 | 5,756 | 348,468 | D +25.7 |
| Summit County | 136,442 | 88,059 | 3,770 | 228,271 | D +21.2 |
| Montgomery County | 113,175 | 97,166 | 3,533 | 213,874 | D +7.5 |
| Lucas County | 98,374 | 57,964 | 2,626 | 158,964 | D +25.4 |
| Stark County | 64,948 | 84,337 | 2,507 | 151,792 | R +12.8 |
| Butler County | 57,492 | 89,972 | 2,478 | 149,942 | R +21.7 |
| Lorain County | 66,494 | 60,604 | 2,134 | 129,232 | D +4.6 |
| Warren County | 40,995 | 70,453 | 1,872 | 113,320 | R +26.0 |
| Delaware County | 52,745 | 54,857 | 1,806 | 109,408 | R +1.9 |
| Lake County | 47,604 | 55,892 | 1,738 | 105,234 | R +7.9 |
| Mahoning County | 49,825 | 43,992 | 1,575 | 95,392 | D +6.1 |
| Clermont County | 29,585 | 60,246 | 1,509 | 91,340 | R +33.6 |
| Medina County | 36,415 | 48,713 | 1,430 | 86,558 | R +14.2 |
| Trumbull County | 38,212 | 41,380 | 1,336 | 80,928 | R +3.9 |
| Licking County | 28,454 | 46,213 | 1,254 | 75,921 | R +23.4 |
| Greene County | 29,921 | 43,807 | 1,239 | 74,967 | R +18.5 |
| Portage County | 32,406 | 35,456 | 1,140 | 69,002 | R +4.4 |
| Fairfield County | 27,295 | 39,558 | 1,123 | 67,976 | R +18.0 |
| Wood County | 26,002 | 28,508 | 916 | 55,426 | R +4.5 |
| Clark County | 20,552 | 29,551 | 841 | 50,944 | R +17.7 |
| Richland County | 14,585 | 32,640 | 793 | 48,018 | R +37.6 |
| Miami County | 13,228 | 33,296 | 782 | 47,306 | R +42.4 |
| Geauga County | 18,562 | 26,792 | 762 | 46,116 | R +17.9 |
| Wayne County | 14,531 | 28,366 | 720 | 43,617 | R +31.7 |
| Columbiana County | 11,758 | 27,015 | 651 | 39,424 | R +38.7 |
| Allen County | 10,737 | 26,253 | 620 | 37,610 | R +41.3 |
| Ashtabula County | 14,610 | 20,069 | 583 | 35,262 | R +15.5 |
| Tuscarawas County | 11,562 | 22,475 | 571 | 34,608 | R +31.5 |
| Erie County | 15,575 | 16,431 | 538 | 32,544 | R +2.6 |
| Muskingum County | 9,922 | 21,163 | 521 | 31,606 | R +35.6 |
| Hancock County | 9,507 | 20,831 | 509 | 30,847 | R +36.7 |
| Union County | 10,135 | 18,631 | 483 | 29,249 | R +29.1 |
| Ross County | 9,454 | 16,799 | 441 | 26,694 | R +27.5 |
| Knox County | 7,231 | 18,363 | 430 | 26,024 | R +42.8 |
| Jefferson County | 8,777 | 16,584 | 425 | 25,786 | R +30.3 |
| Belmont County | 8,486 | 16,742 | 424 | 25,652 | R +32.2 |
| Washington County | 8,169 | 16,622 | 416 | 25,207 | R +33.5 |
| Scioto County | 8,041 | 16,721 | 416 | 25,178 | R +34.5 |
| Sandusky County | 8,859 | 14,703 | 396 | 23,958 | R +24.4 |
| Pickaway County | 6,698 | 16,085 | 383 | 23,166 | R +40.5 |
| Athens County | 14,407 | 8,036 | 377 | 22,820 | D +27.9 |
| Marion County | 7,181 | 14,900 | 371 | 22,452 | R +34.4 |
| Darke County | 3,639 | 17,653 | 358 | 21,650 | R +64.7 |
| Huron County | 6,477 | 14,522 | 353 | 21,352 | R +37.7 |
| Ashland County | 5,309 | 15,453 | 348 | 21,110 | R +48.0 |
| Lawrence County | 6,206 | 14,184 | 343 | 20,733 | R +38.5 |
| Seneca County | 6,921 | 13,359 | 340 | 20,620 | R +31.2 |
| Auglaize County | 3,635 | 16,565 | 338 | 20,538 | R +63.0 |
| Shelby County | 3,437 | 16,462 | 335 | 20,234 | R +64.4 |
| Ottawa County | 8,150 | 11,354 | 328 | 19,832 | R +16.2 |
| Mercer County | 3,130 | 15,674 | 316 | 19,120 | R +65.6 |
| Logan County | 3,960 | 14,306 | 306 | 18,572 | R +55.7 |
| Fulton County | 5,445 | 12,198 | 296 | 17,939 | R +37.6 |
| Preble County | 3,732 | 13,333 | 287 | 17,352 | R +55.3 |
| Madison County | 5,193 | 11,263 | 276 | 16,732 | R +36.3 |
| Brown County | 3,958 | 12,392 | 274 | 16,624 | R +50.7 |
| Crawford County | 4,047 | 12,066 | 270 | 16,383 | R +49.0 |
| Clinton County | 3,990 | 12,045 | 269 | 16,304 | R +49.4 |
| Putnam County | 2,461 | 13,530 | 269 | 16,260 | R +68.1 |
| Champaign County | 4,487 | 11,394 | 266 | 16,147 | R +42.8 |
| Highland County | 3,226 | 12,089 | 257 | 15,572 | R +56.9 |
| Defiance County | 4,578 | 10,390 | 252 | 15,220 | R +38.2 |
| Morrow County | 3,724 | 10,927 | 245 | 14,896 | R +48.4 |
| Williams County | 3,679 | 10,580 | 240 | 14,499 | R +47.6 |
| Guernsey County | 3,852 | 9,908 | 232 | 13,992 | R +43.3 |
| Perry County | 3,854 | 9,381 | 222 | 13,457 | R +41.1 |
| Coshocton County | 3,418 | 9,540 | 217 | 13,175 | R +46.5 |
| Henry County | 2,872 | 8,599 | 193 | 11,664 | R +49.1 |
| Van Wert County | 2,394 | 8,939 | 190 | 11,523 | R +56.8 |
| Carroll County | 2,962 | 7,984 | 184 | 11,130 | R +45.1 |
| Jackson County | 2,835 | 7,980 | 181 | 10,996 | R +46.8 |
| Hocking County | 3,628 | 6,898 | 177 | 10,703 | R +30.6 |
| Holmes County | 1,592 | 8,856 | 176 | 10,624 | R +68.4 |
| Hardin County | 2,636 | 7,769 | 175 | 10,580 | R +48.5 |
| Gallia County | 2,536 | 7,844 | 174 | 10,554 | R +50.3 |
| Adams County | 2,091 | 7,718 | 165 | 9,974 | R +56.4 |
| Fayette County | 2,236 | 7,571 | 165 | 9,972 | R +53.5 |
| Pike County | 2,796 | 6,484 | 156 | 9,436 | R +39.1 |
| Wyandot County | 2,336 | 6,552 | 150 | 9,038 | R +46.6 |
| Meigs County | 2,189 | 6,032 | 138 | 8,359 | R +46.0 |
| Paulding County | 1,742 | 5,465 | 121 | 7,328 | R +50.8 |
| Harrison County | 1,587 | 4,003 | 94 | 5,684 | R +42.5 |
| Morgan County | 1,458 | 3,864 | 89 | 5,411 | R +44.5 |
| Monroe County | 1,539 | 3,752 | 89 | 5,380 | R +41.1 |
| Noble County | 1,198 | 3,883 | 85 | 5,166 | R +52.0 |
| Vinton County | 1,228 | 3,278 | 76 | 4,582 | R +44.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +6.7 and R +8.0. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +3.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +3.1 |
| Blend of every leg | D +2.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +0.7 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +0.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +6.7 and R +8.0.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Zayas | Hawkins | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||