2026 forecast · Ohio Auditor
Annette Blackwell is slightly favored to win Ohio's auditor race.
Annette Blackwell vs Frank LaRose, an open seat. The model has Blackwell ahead by 2.5 points, with a 67 percent chance of winning.
Lean DModel D +2.5Updated October 22, 2026
Annette Blackwell
Democrat
49.8%
2,375,269 projected votes
Frank LaRose
Republican
47.3%
2,256,045 projected votes
67%Blackwell
33%LaRose
Blackwell favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Blackwell wins about 67 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Blackwell +729,295 net votes from 11 countiesStatewide D +2.5, a 119,218 vote marginLaRose +610,077 net votes from 77 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,771,682 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Annette Blackwell D | 2,375,269 | 49.8% |
| Frank LaRose R | 2,256,045 | 47.3% |
| Other candidates | 140,367 | 2.9% |
| Total | 4,771,682 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
88 counties| County | Blackwell | LaRose | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,375,269 | 2,256,051 | 140,360 | 4,771,680 | D +2.5 |
| Franklin County | 362,754 | 130,363 | 14,945 | 508,062 | D +45.7 |
| Cuyahoga County | 364,011 | 118,465 | 14,622 | 497,098 | D +49.4 |
| Hamilton County | 218,825 | 119,392 | 10,251 | 348,468 | D +28.5 |
| Summit County | 138,403 | 83,153 | 6,715 | 228,271 | D +24.2 |
| Montgomery County | 115,397 | 92,185 | 6,292 | 213,874 | D +10.8 |
| Lucas County | 99,617 | 54,671 | 4,676 | 158,964 | D +28.3 |
| Stark County | 66,782 | 80,546 | 4,464 | 151,792 | R +9.1 |
| Butler County | 59,336 | 86,194 | 4,412 | 149,942 | R +17.9 |
| Lorain County | 67,883 | 57,548 | 3,801 | 129,232 | D +8.0 |
| Warren County | 42,399 | 67,587 | 3,334 | 113,320 | R +22.2 |
| Delaware County | 53,981 | 52,209 | 3,218 | 109,408 | D +1.6 |
| Lake County | 48,840 | 53,299 | 3,095 | 105,234 | R +4.2 |
| Mahoning County | 50,844 | 41,742 | 2,806 | 95,392 | D +9.5 |
| Clermont County | 30,697 | 57,956 | 2,687 | 91,340 | R +29.8 |
| Medina County | 37,471 | 46,540 | 2,547 | 86,558 | R +10.5 |
| Trumbull County | 39,144 | 39,403 | 2,381 | 80,928 | R +0.3 |
| Licking County | 29,392 | 44,296 | 2,233 | 75,921 | R +19.6 |
| Greene County | 30,833 | 41,929 | 2,205 | 74,967 | R +14.8 |
| Portage County | 33,201 | 33,770 | 2,031 | 69,002 | R +0.8 |
| Fairfield County | 28,130 | 37,846 | 2,000 | 67,976 | R +14.3 |
| Wood County | 26,636 | 27,159 | 1,631 | 55,426 | R +0.9 |
| Clark County | 21,182 | 28,264 | 1,498 | 50,944 | R +13.9 |
| Richland County | 15,163 | 31,443 | 1,412 | 48,018 | R +33.9 |
| Miami County | 13,785 | 32,129 | 1,392 | 47,306 | R +38.8 |
| Geauga County | 19,126 | 25,633 | 1,357 | 46,116 | R +14.1 |
| Wayne County | 15,065 | 27,269 | 1,283 | 43,617 | R +28.0 |
| Columbiana County | 12,234 | 26,031 | 1,159 | 39,424 | R +35.0 |
| Allen County | 11,183 | 25,321 | 1,106 | 37,610 | R +37.6 |
| Ashtabula County | 15,040 | 19,184 | 1,038 | 35,262 | R +11.8 |
| Tuscarawas County | 11,992 | 21,599 | 1,017 | 34,608 | R +27.8 |
| Erie County | 15,951 | 15,636 | 957 | 32,544 | D +1.0 |
| Muskingum County | 10,308 | 20,369 | 929 | 31,606 | R +31.8 |
| Hancock County | 9,878 | 20,062 | 907 | 30,847 | R +33.0 |
| Union County | 10,491 | 17,897 | 861 | 29,249 | R +25.3 |
| Ross County | 9,786 | 16,122 | 786 | 26,694 | R +23.7 |
| Knox County | 7,535 | 17,724 | 765 | 26,024 | R +39.1 |
| Jefferson County | 9,099 | 15,929 | 758 | 25,786 | R +26.5 |
| Belmont County | 8,806 | 16,092 | 754 | 25,652 | R +28.4 |
| Washington County | 8,479 | 15,987 | 741 | 25,207 | R +29.8 |
| Scioto County | 8,353 | 16,085 | 740 | 25,178 | R +30.7 |
| Sandusky County | 9,153 | 14,100 | 705 | 23,958 | R +20.6 |
| Pickaway County | 6,977 | 15,508 | 681 | 23,166 | R +36.8 |
| Athens County | 14,571 | 7,578 | 671 | 22,820 | D +30.6 |
| Marion County | 7,453 | 14,338 | 661 | 22,452 | R +30.7 |
| Darke County | 3,836 | 17,177 | 637 | 21,650 | R +61.6 |
| Huron County | 6,735 | 13,989 | 628 | 21,352 | R +34.0 |
| Ashland County | 5,548 | 14,942 | 620 | 21,110 | R +44.5 |
| Lawrence County | 6,461 | 13,662 | 610 | 20,733 | R +34.7 |
| Seneca County | 7,173 | 12,841 | 606 | 20,620 | R +27.5 |
| Auglaize County | 3,829 | 16,105 | 604 | 20,538 | R +59.8 |
| Shelby County | 3,624 | 16,014 | 596 | 20,234 | R +61.2 |
| Ottawa County | 8,393 | 10,856 | 583 | 19,832 | R +12.4 |
| Mercer County | 3,303 | 15,255 | 562 | 19,120 | R +62.5 |
| Logan County | 4,154 | 13,872 | 546 | 18,572 | R +52.3 |
| Fulton County | 5,661 | 11,751 | 527 | 17,939 | R +34.0 |
| Preble County | 3,915 | 12,927 | 510 | 17,352 | R +51.9 |
| Madison County | 5,396 | 10,843 | 493 | 16,732 | R +32.5 |
| Brown County | 4,147 | 11,989 | 488 | 16,624 | R +47.2 |
| Crawford County | 4,230 | 11,671 | 482 | 16,383 | R +45.4 |
| Clinton County | 4,174 | 11,651 | 479 | 16,304 | R +45.9 |
| Putnam County | 2,601 | 13,181 | 478 | 16,260 | R +65.1 |
| Champaign County | 4,679 | 10,993 | 475 | 16,147 | R +39.1 |
| Highland County | 3,389 | 11,724 | 459 | 15,572 | R +53.5 |
| Defiance County | 4,760 | 10,012 | 448 | 15,220 | R +34.5 |
| Morrow County | 3,894 | 10,565 | 437 | 14,896 | R +44.8 |
| Williams County | 3,842 | 10,231 | 426 | 14,499 | R +44.1 |
| Guernsey County | 4,018 | 9,563 | 411 | 13,992 | R +39.6 |
| Perry County | 4,017 | 9,045 | 395 | 13,457 | R +37.4 |
| Coshocton County | 3,568 | 9,219 | 388 | 13,175 | R +42.9 |
| Henry County | 3,002 | 8,319 | 343 | 11,664 | R +45.6 |
| Van Wert County | 2,513 | 8,671 | 339 | 11,523 | R +53.4 |
| Carroll County | 3,092 | 7,711 | 327 | 11,130 | R +41.5 |
| Jackson County | 2,964 | 7,709 | 323 | 10,996 | R +43.1 |
| Hocking County | 3,761 | 6,627 | 315 | 10,703 | R +26.8 |
| Holmes County | 1,677 | 8,634 | 313 | 10,624 | R +65.5 |
| Hardin County | 2,754 | 7,514 | 312 | 10,580 | R +45.0 |
| Gallia County | 2,655 | 7,589 | 310 | 10,554 | R +46.8 |
| Adams County | 2,195 | 7,485 | 294 | 9,974 | R +53.0 |
| Fayette County | 2,343 | 7,336 | 293 | 9,972 | R +50.1 |
| Pike County | 2,912 | 6,246 | 278 | 9,436 | R +35.3 |
| Wyandot County | 2,440 | 6,331 | 267 | 9,038 | R +43.0 |
| Meigs County | 2,286 | 5,827 | 246 | 8,359 | R +42.4 |
| Paulding County | 1,823 | 5,289 | 216 | 7,328 | R +47.3 |
| Harrison County | 1,655 | 3,862 | 167 | 5,684 | R +38.8 |
| Morgan County | 1,521 | 3,731 | 159 | 5,411 | R +40.8 |
| Monroe County | 1,605 | 3,616 | 159 | 5,380 | R +37.4 |
| Noble County | 1,256 | 3,758 | 152 | 5,166 | R +48.5 |
| Vinton County | 1,282 | 3,165 | 135 | 4,582 | R +41.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.9 and R +4.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +3.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +2.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +2.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +2.6 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +2.5 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +9.9 and R +4.9.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Blackwell | LaRose | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||