SearchThe Weighting Room
12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 ballot measure forecast

Nebraska Initiative Measure 442

Sex-separate school and college sports teams

Adds to the constitution a requirement that public K-12 schools, colleges and private schools that compete with them designate teams as male, female or coed and bar males from female teams, making part of a 2025 law permanent. The forecast has Yes at 65.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 94% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentTransgender policy and marriageUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
94%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
65.4%
80% range 52 to 76
Needs
50%
a majority, with Yes at least 35 percent of all ballots
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
65.4% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
65.4% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Majority of those voting on the measure, and Yes votes must also equal at least 35% of total ballots cast in the election. A Nebraska Supreme Court challenge was argued Sept 30, 2026; the state says any reversal must come by Oct 27.
The campaign

Yes: Fairness for Girls campaign, record of about 211K signatures. No: legal challenge by Lincoln voter Cara Ullman; no funded No campaign reported.

Also on the Nebraska ballot

Constitutional Amendment 1
Allow three consecutive legislative terms
97%
Initiative Measure 440
Legalize online sports betting through racetracks
22%
Initiative Measure 441
Regulate online sports betting
28%

Initiative Measure 442 by county

Adams CountyAntelope CountyArthur CountyBanner CountyBlaine CountyBoone CountyBox Butte CountyBoyd CountyBrown CountyBuffalo CountyBurt CountyButler CountyCass CountyCedar CountyChase CountyCherry CountyCheyenne CountyClay CountyColfax CountyCuming CountyCuster CountyDakota CountyDawes CountyDawson CountyDeuel CountyDixon CountyDodge CountyDouglas CountyDundy CountyFillmore CountyFranklin CountyFrontier CountyFurnas CountyGage CountyGarden CountyGarfield CountyGosper CountyGrant CountyGreeley CountyHall CountyHamilton CountyHarlan CountyHayes CountyHitchcock CountyHolt CountyHooker CountyHoward CountyJefferson CountyJohnson CountyKearney CountyKeith CountyKeya Paha CountyKimball CountyKnox CountyLancaster CountyLincoln CountyLogan CountyLoup CountyMcPherson CountyMadison CountyMerrick CountyMorrill CountyNance CountyNemaha CountyNuckolls CountyOtoe CountyPawnee CountyPerkins CountyPhelps CountyPierce CountyPlatte CountyPolk CountyRed Willow CountyRichardson CountyRock CountySaline CountySarpy CountySaunders CountyScotts Bluff CountySeward CountySheridan CountySherman CountySioux CountyStanton CountyThayer CountyThomas CountyThurston CountyValley CountyWashington CountyWayne CountyWebster CountyWheeler CountyYork CountyDouglasLancasterSarpyBuffaloHallLincolnDodgeMadisonPlatteCassScotts BluffAdams
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Douglas County: Yes +64,806Lancaster County: Yes +37,976Sarpy County: Yes +22,324Buffalo County: Yes +5,476Hall County: Yes +5,349Lincoln County: Yes +3,983Dodge County: Yes +3,871Madison County: Yes +3,827Platte County: Yes +3,721Cass County: Yes +3,660Scotts Bluff County: Yes +3,526Adams County: Yes +3,446Saunders County: Yes +3,092Washington County: Yes +2,870Gage County: Yes +2,628Seward County: Yes +2,189Dawson County: Yes +2,005Otoe County: Yes +1,908York County: Yes +1,663Dakota County: Yes +1,418Custer County: Yes +1,402Saline County: Yes +1,311Red Willow County: Yes +1,310Hamilton County: Yes +1,306Holt County: Yes +1,281Phelps County: Yes +1,196Cedar County: Yes +1,185Box Butte County: Yes +1,144Knox County: Yes +1,132Butler County: Yes +1,112Cheyenne County: Yes +1,107Merrick County: Yes +1,059Cuming County: Yes +1,057Wayne County: Yes +1,022Keith County: Yes +1,002Dawes County: Yes +989Richardson County: Yes +958Pierce County: Yes +950Burt County: Yes +885Jefferson County: Yes +867Kearney County: Yes +842Clay County: Yes +833Howard County: Yes +827Colfax County: Yes +823Antelope County: Yes +813Nemaha County: Yes +805Boone County: Yes +775Stanton County: Yes +767Cherry County: Yes +757Fillmore County: Yes +749Dixon County: Yes +700Thayer County: Yes +687Polk County: Yes +678Morrill County: Yes +605Furnas County: Yes +598Sheridan County: Yes +586Valley County: Yes +561Johnson County: Yes +536Nuckolls County: Yes +529Thurston County: Yes +497Chase County: Yes +477Harlan County: Yes +439Kimball County: Yes +425Webster County: Yes +422Nance County: Yes +418Sherman County: Yes +398Brown County: Yes +390Franklin County: Yes +385Perkins County: Yes +353Frontier County: Yes +345Hitchcock County: Yes +341Pawnee County: Yes +339Greeley County: Yes +309Garden County: Yes +272Boyd County: Yes +269Gosper County: Yes +269Garfield County: Yes +245Deuel County: Yes +242Dundy County: Yes +234Rock County: Yes +196Sioux County: Yes +162Hayes County: Yes +124Keya Paha County: Yes +120Wheeler County: Yes +107Logan County: Yes +106Hooker County: Yes +105Banner County: Yes +104Thomas County: Yes +94Loup County: Yes +93Grant County: Yes +89Arthur County: Yes +73McPherson County: Yes +70Blaine County: Yes +66
Yes +224,062 net votes from 93 countiesStatewide Yes +30.8, a 224,062 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

726,946 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes475,50465.4%
No251,44234.6%
Total726,946100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Douglas County137,53172,725210,25665.4%
Lancaster County80,59342,617123,21065.4%
Sarpy County47,37625,05272,42865.4%
Buffalo County11,6216,14517,76665.4%
Hall County11,3516,00217,35365.4%
Lincoln County8,4534,47012,92365.4%
Dodge County8,2154,34412,55965.4%
Madison County8,1224,29512,41765.4%
Platte County7,8964,17512,07165.4%
Cass County7,7684,10811,87665.4%
Scotts Bluff County7,4843,95811,44265.4%
Adams County7,3133,86711,18065.4%
Saunders County6,5623,47010,03265.4%
Washington County6,0913,2219,31265.4%
Gage County5,5762,9488,52465.4%
Seward County4,6462,4577,10365.4%
Dawson County4,2542,2496,50365.4%
Otoe County4,0492,1416,19065.4%
York County3,5301,8675,39765.4%
Dakota County3,0091,5914,60065.4%
Custer County2,9761,5744,55065.4%
Saline County2,7821,4714,25365.4%
Red Willow County2,7811,4714,25265.4%
Hamilton County2,7721,4664,23865.4%
Holt County2,7191,4384,15765.4%
Phelps County2,5381,3423,88065.4%
Cedar County2,5141,3293,84365.4%
Box Butte County2,4271,2833,71065.4%
Knox County2,4021,2703,67265.4%
Butler County2,3611,2493,61065.4%
Cheyenne County2,3491,2423,59165.4%
Merrick County2,2471,1883,43565.4%
Cuming County2,2421,1853,42765.4%
Wayne County2,1701,1483,31865.4%
Keith County2,1261,1243,25065.4%
Dawes County2,0991,1103,20965.4%
Richardson County2,0321,0743,10665.4%
Pierce County2,0151,0653,08065.4%
Burt County1,8789932,87165.4%
Jefferson County1,8399722,81165.4%
Kearney County1,7869442,73065.4%
Clay County1,7679342,70165.4%
Howard County1,7559282,68365.4%
Colfax County1,7469232,66965.4%
Antelope County1,7259122,63765.4%
Nemaha County1,7099042,61365.4%
Boone County1,6458702,51565.4%
Stanton County1,6298622,49165.4%
Cherry County1,6088512,45965.4%
Fillmore County1,5888392,42765.4%
Dixon County1,4877872,27465.4%
Thayer County1,4587712,22965.4%
Polk County1,4397612,20065.4%
Morrill County1,2856801,96565.4%
Furnas County1,2686701,93865.4%
Sheridan County1,2446581,90265.4%
Valley County1,1906291,81965.4%
Johnson County1,1376011,73865.4%
Nuckolls County1,1235941,71765.4%
Thurston County1,0545571,61165.4%
Chase County1,0125351,54765.4%
Harlan County9324931,42565.4%
Kimball County9034781,38165.4%
Webster County8964741,37065.4%
Nance County8874691,35665.4%
Sherman County8454471,29265.4%
Brown County8294391,26865.4%
Franklin County8174321,24965.4%
Perkins County7483951,14365.4%
Frontier County7323871,11965.4%
Hitchcock County7243831,10765.4%
Pawnee County7183791,09765.5%
Greeley County6573481,00565.4%
Garden County57830688465.4%
Boyd County57130287365.4%
Gosper County57130287365.4%
Garfield County52027579565.4%
Deuel County51427278665.4%
Dundy County49726376065.4%
Rock County41722163865.4%
Sioux County34418252665.4%
Hayes County26313940265.4%
Keya Paha County25413438865.5%
Wheeler County22812134965.3%
Logan County22511934465.4%
Hooker County22311834165.4%
Banner County22011633665.5%
Thomas County20010630665.4%
Loup County19610329965.6%
Grant County18910028965.4%
Arthur County1548123565.5%
McPherson County1497922865.4%
Blaine County1397321265.6%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Initiative Measure 442 is forecast as a transgender policy and marriage measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Nebraska's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, newsfromthestates.com, nebraskaexaminer.com, nebraskaexaminer.com. All measures.