2026 ballot measure forecast
Nebraska Initiative Measure 441
Regulate online sports betting
Statute defining online sports betting and requiring the Nebraska Racing and Gaming Commission to adopt rules by June 1, 2027. The forecast has Yes at 43.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 28% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
28%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
43.8%80% range 31 to 57
Needs
50%a majority, with Yes at least 35 percent of all ballots
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 43.8% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 43.8% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Majority of those voting on the measure, and Yes votes must also equal at least 35% of total ballots cast in the election.
The campaign
Companion to IM 440, same Tax Relief Nebraska campaign and sportsbook backers.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +0 net votes from 0 countiesStatewide No +12.4, a 90,397 vote marginNo +90,397 net votes from 93 counties
Projected vote
726,947 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 318,275 | 43.8% |
| No | 408,672 | 56.2% |
| Total | 726,947 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas County | 92,055 | 118,201 | 210,256 | 43.8% |
| Lancaster County | 53,944 | 69,266 | 123,210 | 43.8% |
| Sarpy County | 31,711 | 40,717 | 72,428 | 43.8% |
| Buffalo County | 7,778 | 9,988 | 17,766 | 43.8% |
| Hall County | 7,598 | 9,756 | 17,354 | 43.8% |
| Lincoln County | 5,658 | 7,265 | 12,923 | 43.8% |
| Dodge County | 5,499 | 7,061 | 12,560 | 43.8% |
| Madison County | 5,437 | 6,981 | 12,418 | 43.8% |
| Platte County | 5,285 | 6,786 | 12,071 | 43.8% |
| Cass County | 5,200 | 6,676 | 11,876 | 43.8% |
| Scotts Bluff County | 5,009 | 6,432 | 11,441 | 43.8% |
| Adams County | 4,895 | 6,285 | 11,180 | 43.8% |
| Saunders County | 4,392 | 5,640 | 10,032 | 43.8% |
| Washington County | 4,077 | 5,235 | 9,312 | 43.8% |
| Gage County | 3,732 | 4,792 | 8,524 | 43.8% |
| Seward County | 3,110 | 3,993 | 7,103 | 43.8% |
| Dawson County | 2,847 | 3,656 | 6,503 | 43.8% |
| Otoe County | 2,710 | 3,480 | 6,190 | 43.8% |
| York County | 2,363 | 3,034 | 5,397 | 43.8% |
| Dakota County | 2,014 | 2,586 | 4,600 | 43.8% |
| Custer County | 1,992 | 2,558 | 4,550 | 43.8% |
| Saline County | 1,862 | 2,391 | 4,253 | 43.8% |
| Red Willow County | 1,861 | 2,390 | 4,251 | 43.8% |
| Hamilton County | 1,855 | 2,382 | 4,237 | 43.8% |
| Holt County | 1,820 | 2,337 | 4,157 | 43.8% |
| Phelps County | 1,698 | 2,181 | 3,879 | 43.8% |
| Cedar County | 1,683 | 2,161 | 3,844 | 43.8% |
| Box Butte County | 1,624 | 2,086 | 3,710 | 43.8% |
| Knox County | 1,608 | 2,065 | 3,673 | 43.8% |
| Butler County | 1,580 | 2,029 | 3,609 | 43.8% |
| Cheyenne County | 1,572 | 2,019 | 3,591 | 43.8% |
| Merrick County | 1,504 | 1,931 | 3,435 | 43.8% |
| Cuming County | 1,501 | 1,927 | 3,428 | 43.8% |
| Wayne County | 1,453 | 1,865 | 3,318 | 43.8% |
| Keith County | 1,423 | 1,827 | 3,250 | 43.8% |
| Dawes County | 1,405 | 1,804 | 3,209 | 43.8% |
| Richardson County | 1,360 | 1,746 | 3,106 | 43.8% |
| Pierce County | 1,349 | 1,732 | 3,081 | 43.8% |
| Burt County | 1,257 | 1,614 | 2,871 | 43.8% |
| Jefferson County | 1,231 | 1,581 | 2,812 | 43.8% |
| Kearney County | 1,195 | 1,535 | 2,730 | 43.8% |
| Clay County | 1,182 | 1,518 | 2,700 | 43.8% |
| Howard County | 1,175 | 1,508 | 2,683 | 43.8% |
| Colfax County | 1,168 | 1,500 | 2,668 | 43.8% |
| Antelope County | 1,155 | 1,483 | 2,638 | 43.8% |
| Nemaha County | 1,144 | 1,469 | 2,613 | 43.8% |
| Boone County | 1,101 | 1,414 | 2,515 | 43.8% |
| Stanton County | 1,091 | 1,400 | 2,491 | 43.8% |
| Cherry County | 1,077 | 1,382 | 2,459 | 43.8% |
| Fillmore County | 1,063 | 1,364 | 2,427 | 43.8% |
| Dixon County | 996 | 1,278 | 2,274 | 43.8% |
| Thayer County | 976 | 1,253 | 2,229 | 43.8% |
| Polk County | 963 | 1,237 | 2,200 | 43.8% |
| Morrill County | 860 | 1,104 | 1,964 | 43.8% |
| Furnas County | 849 | 1,090 | 1,939 | 43.8% |
| Sheridan County | 833 | 1,069 | 1,902 | 43.8% |
| Valley County | 796 | 1,023 | 1,819 | 43.8% |
| Johnson County | 761 | 977 | 1,738 | 43.8% |
| Nuckolls County | 752 | 965 | 1,717 | 43.8% |
| Thurston County | 705 | 906 | 1,611 | 43.8% |
| Chase County | 677 | 870 | 1,547 | 43.8% |
| Harlan County | 624 | 801 | 1,425 | 43.8% |
| Kimball County | 605 | 776 | 1,381 | 43.8% |
| Webster County | 600 | 770 | 1,370 | 43.8% |
| Nance County | 594 | 763 | 1,357 | 43.8% |
| Sherman County | 566 | 727 | 1,293 | 43.8% |
| Brown County | 555 | 713 | 1,268 | 43.8% |
| Franklin County | 547 | 702 | 1,249 | 43.8% |
| Perkins County | 500 | 643 | 1,143 | 43.7% |
| Frontier County | 490 | 629 | 1,119 | 43.8% |
| Hitchcock County | 484 | 622 | 1,106 | 43.8% |
| Pawnee County | 480 | 617 | 1,097 | 43.8% |
| Greeley County | 440 | 565 | 1,005 | 43.8% |
| Garden County | 387 | 497 | 884 | 43.8% |
| Boyd County | 382 | 490 | 872 | 43.8% |
| Gosper County | 382 | 490 | 872 | 43.8% |
| Garfield County | 348 | 447 | 795 | 43.8% |
| Deuel County | 344 | 442 | 786 | 43.8% |
| Dundy County | 333 | 428 | 761 | 43.8% |
| Rock County | 279 | 359 | 638 | 43.7% |
| Sioux County | 230 | 295 | 525 | 43.8% |
| Hayes County | 176 | 226 | 402 | 43.8% |
| Keya Paha County | 170 | 218 | 388 | 43.8% |
| Wheeler County | 153 | 196 | 349 | 43.8% |
| Logan County | 151 | 193 | 344 | 43.9% |
| Hooker County | 149 | 191 | 340 | 43.8% |
| Banner County | 147 | 189 | 336 | 43.8% |
| Thomas County | 134 | 172 | 306 | 43.8% |
| Loup County | 131 | 168 | 299 | 43.8% |
| Grant County | 127 | 163 | 290 | 43.8% |
| Arthur County | 103 | 132 | 235 | 43.8% |
| McPherson County | 100 | 128 | 228 | 43.9% |
| Blaine County | 93 | 119 | 212 | 43.9% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Initiative Measure 441 is forecast as a gambling measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Nebraska's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.