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2026 ballot measure forecast

Nebraska Constitutional Amendment 1

Allow three consecutive legislative terms

Lets state senators serve three consecutive four-year terms instead of two. The forecast has Yes at 69.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 97% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureGovernment and ethicsUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
97%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.0%
80% range 56 to 79
Needs
50%
a majority, with Yes at least 35 percent of all ballots
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
69.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
69.0% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Majority of those voting on the measure, and Yes votes must also equal at least 35% of total ballots cast in the election.
The campaign

Referred by the Legislature in May 2025; no organized campaigns or money reported.

Also on the Nebraska ballot

Initiative Measure 440
Legalize online sports betting through racetracks
22%
Initiative Measure 441
Regulate online sports betting
28%
Initiative Measure 442
Sex-separate school and college sports teams
94%

Constitutional Amendment 1 by county

Adams CountyAntelope CountyArthur CountyBanner CountyBlaine CountyBoone CountyBox Butte CountyBoyd CountyBrown CountyBuffalo CountyBurt CountyButler CountyCass CountyCedar CountyChase CountyCherry CountyCheyenne CountyClay CountyColfax CountyCuming CountyCuster CountyDakota CountyDawes CountyDawson CountyDeuel CountyDixon CountyDodge CountyDouglas CountyDundy CountyFillmore CountyFranklin CountyFrontier CountyFurnas CountyGage CountyGarden CountyGarfield CountyGosper CountyGrant CountyGreeley CountyHall CountyHamilton CountyHarlan CountyHayes CountyHitchcock CountyHolt CountyHooker CountyHoward CountyJefferson CountyJohnson CountyKearney CountyKeith CountyKeya Paha CountyKimball CountyKnox CountyLancaster CountyLincoln CountyLogan CountyLoup CountyMcPherson CountyMadison CountyMerrick CountyMorrill CountyNance CountyNemaha CountyNuckolls CountyOtoe CountyPawnee CountyPerkins CountyPhelps CountyPierce CountyPlatte CountyPolk CountyRed Willow CountyRichardson CountyRock CountySaline CountySarpy CountySaunders CountyScotts Bluff CountySeward CountySheridan CountySherman CountySioux CountyStanton CountyThayer CountyThomas CountyThurston CountyValley CountyWashington CountyWayne CountyWebster CountyWheeler CountyYork CountyDouglasLancasterSarpyBuffaloHallLincolnDodgeMadisonPlatteCassScotts BluffAdams
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Douglas County: Yes +79,886Lancaster County: Yes +46,813Sarpy County: Yes +27,518Buffalo County: Yes +6,750Hall County: Yes +6,593Lincoln County: Yes +4,910Dodge County: Yes +4,772Madison County: Yes +4,718Platte County: Yes +4,587Cass County: Yes +4,512Scotts Bluff County: Yes +4,347Adams County: Yes +4,248Saunders County: Yes +3,812Washington County: Yes +3,538Gage County: Yes +3,238Seward County: Yes +2,699Dawson County: Yes +2,471Otoe County: Yes +2,352York County: Yes +2,050Dakota County: Yes +1,748Custer County: Yes +1,729Red Willow County: Yes +1,616Saline County: Yes +1,616Hamilton County: Yes +1,610Holt County: Yes +1,579Phelps County: Yes +1,474Cedar County: Yes +1,460Box Butte County: Yes +1,410Knox County: Yes +1,395Butler County: Yes +1,372Cheyenne County: Yes +1,365Merrick County: Yes +1,306Cuming County: Yes +1,302Wayne County: Yes +1,260Keith County: Yes +1,235Dawes County: Yes +1,219Richardson County: Yes +1,180Pierce County: Yes +1,170Burt County: Yes +1,091Jefferson County: Yes +1,068Kearney County: Yes +1,037Clay County: Yes +1,026Howard County: Yes +1,019Colfax County: Yes +1,014Antelope County: Yes +1,002Nemaha County: Yes +992Boone County: Yes +956Stanton County: Yes +947Cherry County: Yes +935Fillmore County: Yes +923Dixon County: Yes +864Thayer County: Yes +847Polk County: Yes +836Morrill County: Yes +747Furnas County: Yes +736Sheridan County: Yes +722Valley County: Yes +691Johnson County: Yes +660Nuckolls County: Yes +653Thurston County: Yes +612Chase County: Yes +588Harlan County: Yes +541Kimball County: Yes +525Webster County: Yes +520Nance County: Yes +515Sherman County: Yes +491Brown County: Yes +482Franklin County: Yes +475Perkins County: Yes +435Frontier County: Yes +425Hitchcock County: Yes +420Pawnee County: Yes +417Greeley County: Yes +381Garden County: Yes +336Boyd County: Yes +332Gosper County: Yes +332Garfield County: Yes +302Deuel County: Yes +298Dundy County: Yes +289Rock County: Yes +242Sioux County: Yes +200Hayes County: Yes +153Keya Paha County: Yes +148Wheeler County: Yes +133Hooker County: Yes +130Logan County: Yes +130Banner County: Yes +128Thomas County: Yes +116Loup County: Yes +113Grant County: Yes +110Arthur County: Yes +89McPherson County: Yes +87Blaine County: Yes +81
Yes +276,202 net votes from 93 countiesStatewide Yes +38.0, a 276,202 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

726,952 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes501,57769.0%
No225,37531.0%
Total726,952100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Douglas County145,07165,185210,25669.0%
Lancaster County85,01138,198123,20969.0%
Sarpy County49,97322,45572,42869.0%
Buffalo County12,2585,50817,76669.0%
Hall County11,9735,38017,35369.0%
Lincoln County8,9164,00612,92269.0%
Dodge County8,6663,89412,56069.0%
Madison County8,5683,85012,41869.0%
Platte County8,3293,74212,07169.0%
Cass County8,1943,68211,87669.0%
Scotts Bluff County7,8943,54711,44169.0%
Adams County7,7143,46611,18069.0%
Saunders County6,9223,11010,03269.0%
Washington County6,4252,8879,31269.0%
Gage County5,8812,6438,52469.0%
Seward County4,9012,2027,10369.0%
Dawson County4,4872,0166,50369.0%
Otoe County4,2711,9196,19069.0%
York County3,7231,6735,39669.0%
Dakota County3,1741,4264,60069.0%
Custer County3,1391,4104,54969.0%
Saline County2,9351,3194,25469.0%
Red Willow County2,9341,3184,25269.0%
Hamilton County2,9241,3144,23869.0%
Holt County2,8681,2894,15769.0%
Phelps County2,6771,2033,88069.0%
Cedar County2,6521,1923,84469.0%
Box Butte County2,5601,1503,71069.0%
Knox County2,5341,1393,67369.0%
Butler County2,4911,1193,61069.0%
Cheyenne County2,4781,1133,59169.0%
Merrick County2,3711,0653,43669.0%
Cuming County2,3651,0633,42869.0%
Wayne County2,2891,0293,31869.0%
Keith County2,2421,0073,24969.0%
Dawes County2,2149953,20969.0%
Richardson County2,1439633,10669.0%
Pierce County2,1259553,08069.0%
Burt County1,9818902,87169.0%
Jefferson County1,9408722,81269.0%
Kearney County1,8838462,72969.0%
Clay County1,8638372,70069.0%
Howard County1,8518322,68369.0%
Colfax County1,8418272,66869.0%
Antelope County1,8208182,63869.0%
Nemaha County1,8028102,61269.0%
Boone County1,7367802,51669.0%
Stanton County1,7197722,49169.0%
Cherry County1,6977622,45969.0%
Fillmore County1,6757522,42769.0%
Dixon County1,5697052,27469.0%
Thayer County1,5386912,22969.0%
Polk County1,5186822,20069.0%
Morrill County1,3566091,96569.0%
Furnas County1,3376011,93869.0%
Sheridan County1,3125901,90269.0%
Valley County1,2555641,81969.0%
Johnson County1,1995391,73869.0%
Nuckolls County1,1855321,71769.0%
Thurston County1,1125001,61269.0%
Chase County1,0684801,54869.0%
Harlan County9834421,42569.0%
Kimball County9534281,38169.0%
Webster County9454251,37069.0%
Nance County9364211,35769.0%
Sherman County8924011,29369.0%
Brown County8753931,26869.0%
Franklin County8623871,24969.0%
Perkins County7893541,14369.0%
Frontier County7723471,11969.0%
Hitchcock County7633431,10669.0%
Pawnee County7573401,09769.0%
Greeley County6933121,00569.0%
Garden County61027488469.0%
Boyd County60227087269.0%
Gosper County60227087269.0%
Garfield County54924779669.0%
Deuel County54224478669.0%
Dundy County52523676169.0%
Rock County44019863869.0%
Sioux County36316352669.0%
Hayes County27812540369.0%
Keya Paha County26812038869.1%
Wheeler County24110834969.1%
Logan County23710734468.9%
Hooker County23510534069.1%
Banner County23210433669.0%
Thomas County2119530669.0%
Loup County2069329968.9%
Grant County2009029069.0%
Arthur County1627323568.9%
McPherson County1587122969.0%
Blaine County1476621369.0%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Constitutional Amendment 1 is forecast as a government and ethics measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Nebraska's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.