2026 ballot measure forecast

Nebraska Initiative Measure 440

Legalize online sports betting through racetracks

Amends the constitution to legalize online sports betting conducted through vendors at Nebraska's six licensed racetrack casinos. The forecast has Yes at 42.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 22% chance to pass.

Likely to failCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentGamblingUpdated October 22, 2026

Chance to pass

22%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

42.6%

80% range 30 to 56

Needs

50%

a majority, with Yes at least 35 percent of all ballots

Polling average

None

No public polls found

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 42.6% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 42.6% Yes
Yes leans: Neither party
Rule to pass: Majority of those voting on the measure, and Yes votes must also equal at least 35% of total ballots cast in the election.

The campaign

Yes: Tax Relief Nebraska, backed by BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and racetrack operators such as WarHorse; reported around $2.6M. No formal opposition; Nebraska Council on Problem Gambling raised concerns.

Also on the Nebraska ballot

Constitutional Amendment 1

Allow three consecutive legislative terms

97%

Initiative Measure 441

Regulate online sports betting

28%

Initiative Measure 442

Sex-separate school and college sports teams

94%

Initiative Measure 440 by county

No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Yes +0 net votes from 0 countiesStatewide No +14.9, a 108,237 vote marginNo +108,237 net votes from 93 counties

Projected vote

726,945 votes on the question

Choice	Votes	Share
Yes	309,354	42.6%
No	417,591	57.4%
Total	726,945	100%

County	Yes	No	Total	Yes share
Douglas County	89,476	120,780	210,256	42.6%
Lancaster County	52,433	70,777	123,210	42.6%
Sarpy County	30,822	41,606	72,428	42.6%
Buffalo County	7,560	10,206	17,766	42.6%
Hall County	7,385	9,968	17,353	42.6%
Lincoln County	5,499	7,423	12,922	42.6%
Dodge County	5,345	7,215	12,560	42.6%
Madison County	5,284	7,133	12,417	42.6%
Platte County	5,137	6,934	12,071	42.6%
Cass County	5,054	6,822	11,876	42.6%
Scotts Bluff County	4,869	6,573	11,442	42.6%
Adams County	4,757	6,422	11,179	42.6%
Saunders County	4,269	5,763	10,032	42.6%
Washington County	3,963	5,349	9,312	42.6%
Gage County	3,627	4,897	8,524	42.6%
Seward County	3,023	4,080	7,103	42.6%
Dawson County	2,767	3,736	6,503	42.5%
Otoe County	2,634	3,556	6,190	42.6%
York County	2,297	3,100	5,397	42.6%
Dakota County	1,958	2,643	4,601	42.6%
Custer County	1,936	2,613	4,549	42.6%
Saline County	1,810	2,443	4,253	42.6%
Red Willow County	1,809	2,442	4,251	42.6%
Hamilton County	1,803	2,434	4,237	42.6%
Holt County	1,769	2,388	4,157	42.6%
Phelps County	1,651	2,228	3,879	42.6%
Cedar County	1,636	2,208	3,844	42.6%
Box Butte County	1,579	2,131	3,710	42.6%
Knox County	1,563	2,110	3,673	42.6%
Butler County	1,536	2,074	3,610	42.5%
Cheyenne County	1,528	2,063	3,591	42.6%
Merrick County	1,462	1,974	3,436	42.5%
Cuming County	1,458	1,969	3,427	42.5%
Wayne County	1,412	1,906	3,318	42.6%
Keith County	1,383	1,867	3,250	42.6%
Dawes County	1,366	1,843	3,209	42.6%
Richardson County	1,322	1,784	3,106	42.6%
Pierce County	1,311	1,770	3,081	42.6%
Burt County	1,222	1,650	2,872	42.5%
Jefferson County	1,196	1,615	2,811	42.5%
Kearney County	1,162	1,568	2,730	42.6%
Clay County	1,149	1,551	2,700	42.6%
Howard County	1,142	1,541	2,683	42.6%
Colfax County	1,136	1,533	2,669	42.6%
Antelope County	1,122	1,515	2,637	42.5%
Nemaha County	1,112	1,501	2,613	42.6%
Boone County	1,070	1,445	2,515	42.5%
Stanton County	1,060	1,431	2,491	42.6%
Cherry County	1,046	1,413	2,459	42.5%
Fillmore County	1,033	1,394	2,427	42.6%
Dixon County	968	1,306	2,274	42.6%
Thayer County	949	1,281	2,230	42.6%
Polk County	936	1,264	2,200	42.5%
Morrill County	836	1,129	1,965	42.5%
Furnas County	825	1,113	1,938	42.6%
Sheridan County	809	1,092	1,901	42.6%
Valley County	774	1,045	1,819	42.6%
Johnson County	740	998	1,738	42.6%
Nuckolls County	731	987	1,718	42.5%
Thurston County	686	926	1,612	42.6%
Chase County	658	889	1,547	42.5%
Harlan County	606	818	1,424	42.6%
Kimball County	588	793	1,381	42.6%
Webster County	583	787	1,370	42.6%
Nance County	577	779	1,356	42.6%
Sherman County	550	742	1,292	42.6%
Brown County	540	728	1,268	42.6%
Franklin County	532	718	1,250	42.6%
Perkins County	486	657	1,143	42.5%
Frontier County	476	643	1,119	42.5%
Hitchcock County	471	636	1,107	42.5%
Pawnee County	467	630	1,097	42.6%
Greeley County	428	577	1,005	42.6%
Garden County	376	508	884	42.5%
Boyd County	371	501	872	42.5%
Gosper County	371	501	872	42.5%
Garfield County	338	457	795	42.5%
Deuel County	334	451	785	42.5%
Dundy County	324	437	761	42.6%
Rock County	272	367	639	42.6%
Sioux County	224	302	526	42.6%
Hayes County	171	231	402	42.5%
Keya Paha County	165	223	388	42.5%
Wheeler County	148	200	348	42.5%
Logan County	146	198	344	42.4%
Hooker County	145	195	340	42.6%
Banner County	143	193	336	42.6%
Thomas County	130	176	306	42.5%
Loup County	127	172	299	42.5%
Grant County	123	166	289	42.6%
Arthur County	100	135	235	42.6%
McPherson County	97	131	228	42.5%
Blaine County	90	122	212	42.5%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Initiative Measure 440 is forecast as a gambling measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Nebraska's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com , news.ballotpedia.org , wowt.com , brightsideofnews.com. All measures.