2026 ballot measure forecast

Massachusetts Question 8

Repeal recreational marijuana sales

Prohibits retail sales of recreational marijuana, repeals home cultivation, and sets new possession limits and civil penalties; medical marijuana unaffected. The forecast has Yes at 28.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a <1% chance to pass.

Very likely to failCitizen initiated statuteMarijuanaUpdated October 22, 2026

Chance to pass

<1%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

28.4%

80% range 24 to 33

Needs

50%

a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots

Polling average

27.9%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 30.6% Yes
Polls: 27.9% Yes
Forecast: 28.4% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.

The campaign

Coalition For a Healthy Massachusetts funded mostly by SAM Action Inc. (nearly $3.2M); Massachusetts Cannabis Coalition and industry opposing with almost $1.6M.

Also on the Massachusetts ballot

Question 1

Apply public records law to Legislature and governor

>99%

Question 2

Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff

>99%

Question 3

Single all-party primary, top two advance

60%

Question 4

Election Day voter registration

>99%

Question 5

Change state revenue cap and rebate excess

92%

Question 6

Create Nature for All conservation fund

>99%

Question 7

Allow single-family homes on smaller lots

>99%

Question 9

Keep or repeal 2024 gun law

>99%

Question 8 by county

No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Yes +0 net votes from 0 countiesStatewide No +43.2, a 1,161,397 vote marginNo +1,161,397 net votes from 14 counties

Projected vote

2,687,745 votes on the question

Choice	Votes	Share
Yes	763,174	28.4%
No	1,924,571	71.6%
Total	2,687,745	100%

County	Yes	No	Total	Yes share
Middlesex County	160,176	480,351	640,527	25.0%
Worcester County	103,021	215,768	318,789	32.3%
Essex County	91,023	214,644	305,667	29.8%
Norfolk County	82,969	216,541	299,510	27.7%
Suffolk County	53,202	193,322	246,524	21.6%
Plymouth County	73,749	152,373	226,122	32.6%
Bristol County	71,002	134,775	205,777	34.5%
Hampden County	51,480	106,453	157,933	32.6%
Barnstable County	34,749	82,257	117,006	29.7%
Hampshire County	16,828	52,345	69,173	24.3%
Berkshire County	13,237	39,876	53,113	24.9%
Franklin County	8,286	24,376	32,662	25.4%
Dukes County	2,065	7,484	9,549	21.6%
Nantucket County	1,387	4,006	5,393	25.7%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

7 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe	500 LV	2026-10-18	21.4	71.4	5.8	23.7%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-10-12	31	61	5	33.7%
MassINC Polling Group	800 LV	2026-09-22	27	61	11	31.0%
UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)	564 LV	2026-09-21	24	71	5	25.7%
Suffolk University Political Research Center	500 LV	2026-08-16	16.2	79	4.4	17.7%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-08-12	33	55	10	37.1%
UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)	620 LV	2026-02-16	20	63	16	25.6%

How this is built

Question 8 is forecast as a marijuana measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Massachusetts's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sec.state.ma.us , boston.com , nbcboston.com , commonwealthbeacon.org. All measures.