2026 ballot measure forecast

Massachusetts Question 5

Change state revenue cap and rebate excess

Bases the state tax revenue limit on prior year actual net state revenue plus wage and salary growth and rebates revenue above the limit to taxpayers. The forecast has Yes at 56.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 92% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated statuteIncome taxUpdated October 22, 2026

Chance to pass

92%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

56.4%

80% range 50 to 62

Needs

50%

a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots

Polling average

59.0%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 45.4% Yes
Polls: 59.0% Yes
Forecast: 56.4% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.

The campaign

Massachusetts Opportunity Alliance business coalition (Taxpayers for an Affordable Massachusetts) about $1.9M in-kind; labor unions (Protect Massachusetts' Future) over $700K opposing.

Also on the Massachusetts ballot

Question 1

Apply public records law to Legislature and governor

>99%

Question 2

Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff

>99%

Question 3

Single all-party primary, top two advance

60%

Question 4

Election Day voter registration

>99%

Question 6

Create Nature for All conservation fund

>99%

Question 7

Allow single-family homes on smaller lots

>99%

Question 8

Repeal recreational marijuana sales

<1%

Question 9

Keep or repeal 2024 gun law

>99%

Question 5 by county

No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Yes +349,798 net votes from 12 countiesStatewide Yes +12.9, a 345,748 vote marginNo +4,050 net votes from 2 counties

Projected vote

2,687,742 votes on the question

Choice	Votes	Share
Yes	1,516,745	56.4%
No	1,170,997	43.6%
Total	2,687,742	100%

County	Yes	No	Total	Yes share
Middlesex County	340,317	300,210	640,527	53.1%
Worcester County	192,315	126,474	318,789	60.3%
Essex County	177,234	128,433	305,667	58.0%
Norfolk County	167,571	131,939	299,510	55.9%
Suffolk County	121,308	125,216	246,524	49.2%
Plymouth County	137,014	89,108	226,122	60.6%
Bristol County	128,067	77,709	205,776	62.2%
Hampden County	95,670	62,263	157,933	60.6%
Barnstable County	67,753	49,252	117,005	57.9%
Hampshire County	36,236	32,937	69,173	52.4%
Berkshire County	28,170	24,943	53,113	53.0%
Franklin County	17,481	15,181	32,662	53.5%
Dukes County	4,703	4,845	9,548	49.3%
Nantucket County	2,906	2,487	5,393	53.9%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

4 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe	500 LV	2026-10-18	40	37.6	19.8	47.8%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-10-12	58	20	13	68.5%
MassINC Polling Group	800 LV	2026-09-22	47	26	25	56.5%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-08-12	59	14	16	72.3%

How this is built

Question 5 is forecast as a income tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Massachusetts's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sec.state.ma.us , boston.com , nbcboston.com , commonwealthbeacon.org. All measures.