2026 ballot measure forecast

Massachusetts Question 6

Create Nature for All conservation fund

Creates a Nature for All Fund for conservation and recreation, dedicating sales tax revenue from certain sporting goods, recreational vehicles and golf courses, roughly $65M a year. The forecast has Yes at 66.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passCitizen initiated statuteEnvironment and energyUpdated October 22, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

66.1%

80% range 61 to 71

Needs

50%

a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots

Polling average

66.4%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 65.0% Yes
Polls: 66.4% Yes
Forecast: 66.1% Yes
Yes leans: Democratic
Rule to pass: Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.

The campaign

Led by Mass Audubon; no organized opposition filed; supporters spent at least $1M.

Also on the Massachusetts ballot

Question 1

Apply public records law to Legislature and governor

>99%

Question 2

Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff

>99%

Question 3

Single all-party primary, top two advance

60%

Question 4

Election Day voter registration

>99%

Question 5

Change state revenue cap and rebate excess

92%

Question 7

Allow single-family homes on smaller lots

>99%

Question 8

Repeal recreational marijuana sales

<1%

Question 9

Keep or repeal 2024 gun law

>99%

Question 6 by county

No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Yes +867,157 net votes from 14 countiesStatewide Yes +32.3, a 867,157 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

2,687,743 votes on the question

Choice	Votes	Share
Yes	1,777,450	66.1%
No	910,293	33.9%
Total	2,687,743	100%

County	Yes	No	Total	Yes share
Middlesex County	447,435	193,092	640,527	69.9%
Worcester County	197,036	121,753	318,789	61.8%
Essex County	197,355	108,312	305,667	64.6%
Norfolk County	200,224	99,287	299,511	66.9%
Suffolk County	181,781	64,743	246,524	73.7%
Plymouth County	139,033	87,089	226,122	61.5%
Bristol County	122,355	83,421	205,776	59.5%
Hampden County	97,138	60,795	157,933	61.5%
Barnstable County	75,648	41,358	117,006	64.7%
Hampshire County	48,849	20,324	69,173	70.6%
Berkshire County	37,152	15,960	53,112	70.0%
Franklin County	22,684	9,979	32,663	69.4%
Dukes County	7,036	2,512	9,548	73.7%
Nantucket County	3,724	1,668	5,392	69.1%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

5 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe	500 LV	2026-10-18	48.6	38.6	11.2	53.2%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-10-12	70	19	8	74.9%
MassINC Polling Group	800 LV	2026-09-22	56	24	20	62.7%
UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)	564 LV	2026-09-21	69	15	16	74.3%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-08-12	67	22	8	71.8%

How this is built

Question 6 is forecast as a environment and energy measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Massachusetts's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sec.state.ma.us , boston.com , nbcboston.com , commonwealthbeacon.org. All measures.