2026 ballot measure forecast
Massachusetts Question 1
Apply public records law to Legislature and governor
Makes most records of the governor's office and the state Legislature subject to the public records law, ending their current exclusion. The forecast has Yes at 75.9 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
75.9%80% range 72 to 80
Needs
50%a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots
Polling average
78.6%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 62.2% Yes
- Polls
- 78.6% Yes
- Forecast
- 75.9% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.
The campaign
Backed by Auditor Diana DiZoglio's Committee for Transparency and Democracy and the Coalition for Healthy Democracy, which raised about $5.2M across Q1 and Q3; no organized opposition filed.
Also on the Massachusetts ballot
Question 2
Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff
>99%
Question 3
Single all-party primary, top two advance
60%
Question 4
Election Day voter registration
>99%
Question 5
Change state revenue cap and rebate excess
92%
Question 6
Create Nature for All conservation fund
>99%
Question 7
Allow single-family homes on smaller lots
>99%
Question 8
Repeal recreational marijuana sales
<1%
Question 9
Keep or repeal 2024 gun law
>99%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +1,391,880 net votes from 14 countiesStatewide Yes +51.8, a 1,391,880 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
2,687,744 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2,039,812 | 75.9% |
| No | 647,932 | 24.1% |
| Total | 2,687,744 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex County | 486,116 | 154,412 | 640,528 | 75.9% |
| Worcester County | 241,939 | 76,850 | 318,789 | 75.9% |
| Essex County | 231,980 | 73,687 | 305,667 | 75.9% |
| Norfolk County | 227,308 | 72,203 | 299,511 | 75.9% |
| Suffolk County | 187,095 | 59,429 | 246,524 | 75.9% |
| Plymouth County | 171,611 | 54,511 | 226,122 | 75.9% |
| Bristol County | 156,170 | 49,606 | 205,776 | 75.9% |
| Hampden County | 119,860 | 38,073 | 157,933 | 75.9% |
| Barnstable County | 88,799 | 28,206 | 117,005 | 75.9% |
| Hampshire County | 52,497 | 16,675 | 69,172 | 75.9% |
| Berkshire County | 40,309 | 12,804 | 53,113 | 75.9% |
| Franklin County | 24,788 | 7,874 | 32,662 | 75.9% |
| Dukes County | 7,247 | 2,302 | 9,549 | 75.9% |
| Nantucket County | 4,093 | 1,300 | 5,393 | 75.9% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
4 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe | 500 LV | 2026-10-18 | 62.2 | 19.8 | 17.4 | 68.4% |
| UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov | 800 RV | 2026-10-12 | 84 | 6 | 8 | 88.4% |
| MassINC Polling Group | 800 LV | 2026-09-22 | 63 | 14 | 23 | 70.7% |
| UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov | 800 RV | 2026-08-12 | 84 | 7 | 7 | 88.1% |
How this is built
Question 1 is forecast as a government and ethics measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Massachusetts's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sec.state.ma.us, boston.com, nbcboston.com, commonwealthbeacon.org. All measures.