2026 forecast · Kansas Treasurer
Juan Luengo and Steven Johnson are in a toss up for Kansas's treasurer.
Juan Luengo vs Steven Johnson, with Steven Johnson running again. The model has Johnson ahead by 1.3 points, with a 58 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel R +1.3Updated October 22, 2026
Juan Luengo
Democrat
46.3%
531,399 projected votes
Steven Johnson
Republican
47.6%
546,660 projected votes
58%Johnson
42%Luengo
Johnson slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Johnson wins about 58 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Luengo +137,888 net votes from 6 countiesStatewide R +1.3, a 15,264 vote marginJohnson +153,152 net votes from 99 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,147,820 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Johnson R | 546,660 | 47.6% |
| Juan Luengo D | 531,399 | 46.3% |
| Eric Lund | 69,760 | 6.1% |
| Total | 1,147,820 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
105 counties| County | Luengo | Johnson | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 531,399 | 546,663 | 69,758 | 1,147,820 | R +1.3 |
| Johnson County | 173,646 | 99,931 | 17,703 | 291,280 | D +25.3 |
| Sedgwick County | 85,534 | 86,681 | 11,144 | 183,359 | R +0.6 |
| Shawnee County | 39,379 | 28,201 | 4,373 | 71,953 | D +15.5 |
| Douglas County | 38,811 | 10,797 | 3,210 | 52,818 | D +53.0 |
| Wyandotte County | 30,758 | 10,393 | 2,662 | 43,813 | D +46.5 |
| Leavenworth County | 13,592 | 15,943 | 1,911 | 31,446 | R +7.5 |
| Butler County | 8,891 | 16,774 | 1,661 | 27,326 | R +28.9 |
| Reno County | 8,271 | 13,690 | 1,421 | 23,382 | R +23.2 |
| Riley County | 13,085 | 8,811 | 1,417 | 23,313 | D +18.3 |
| Saline County | 7,657 | 11,351 | 1,230 | 20,238 | R +18.3 |
| Miami County | 5,252 | 9,185 | 933 | 15,370 | R +25.6 |
| Crawford County | 5,958 | 7,321 | 859 | 14,138 | R +9.6 |
| Harvey County | 5,927 | 7,322 | 857 | 14,106 | R +9.9 |
| McPherson County | 3,834 | 7,849 | 756 | 12,439 | R +32.3 |
| Cowley County | 4,044 | 7,349 | 737 | 12,130 | R +27.2 |
| Ellis County | 4,159 | 7,070 | 727 | 11,956 | R +24.4 |
| Pottawatomie County | 3,340 | 7,438 | 698 | 11,476 | R +35.7 |
| Lyon County | 5,542 | 5,200 | 695 | 11,437 | D +3.0 |
| Montgomery County | 2,855 | 7,585 | 676 | 11,116 | R +42.5 |
| Franklin County | 3,861 | 6,217 | 652 | 10,730 | R +22.0 |
| Barton County | 2,348 | 6,334 | 562 | 9,244 | R +43.1 |
| Finney County | 3,345 | 5,186 | 551 | 9,082 | R +20.3 |
| Sumner County | 2,625 | 5,810 | 545 | 8,980 | R +35.5 |
| Jefferson County | 3,131 | 4,708 | 507 | 8,346 | R +18.9 |
| Geary County | 3,753 | 4,056 | 505 | 8,314 | R +3.6 |
| Dickinson County | 1,916 | 5,424 | 474 | 7,814 | R +44.9 |
| Cherokee County | 1,984 | 5,005 | 452 | 7,441 | R +40.6 |
| Ford County | 2,596 | 4,380 | 452 | 7,428 | R +24.0 |
| Labette County | 2,374 | 4,135 | 421 | 6,930 | R +25.4 |
| Osage County | 2,186 | 4,225 | 415 | 6,826 | R +29.9 |
| Atchison County | 2,148 | 3,721 | 379 | 6,248 | R +25.2 |
| Neosho County | 1,725 | 3,791 | 358 | 5,874 | R +35.2 |
| Bourbon County | 1,375 | 3,905 | 342 | 5,622 | R +45.0 |
| Jackson County | 1,900 | 3,314 | 338 | 5,552 | R +25.5 |
| Marion County | 1,398 | 3,493 | 317 | 5,208 | R +40.2 |
| Nemaha County | 994 | 3,600 | 298 | 4,892 | R +53.3 |
| Allen County | 1,418 | 3,051 | 289 | 4,758 | R +34.3 |
| Marshall County | 1,234 | 2,775 | 259 | 4,268 | R +36.1 |
| Linn County | 914 | 3,075 | 257 | 4,246 | R +50.9 |
| Seward County | 1,414 | 2,318 | 241 | 3,973 | R +22.8 |
| Coffey County | 923 | 2,611 | 229 | 3,763 | R +44.9 |
| Brown County | 1,122 | 2,344 | 224 | 3,690 | R +33.1 |
| Clay County | 903 | 2,472 | 219 | 3,594 | R +43.6 |
| Cloud County | 858 | 2,485 | 217 | 3,560 | R +45.7 |
| Pratt County | 957 | 2,377 | 216 | 3,550 | R +40.0 |
| Rice County | 874 | 2,394 | 212 | 3,480 | R +43.7 |
| Wabaunsee County | 976 | 2,240 | 209 | 3,425 | R +36.9 |
| Wilson County | 738 | 2,444 | 206 | 3,388 | R +50.3 |
| Kingman County | 855 | 2,315 | 206 | 3,376 | R +43.2 |
| Anderson County | 745 | 2,294 | 196 | 3,235 | R +47.9 |
| Thomas County | 658 | 2,380 | 197 | 3,235 | R +53.2 |
| Doniphan County | 603 | 2,273 | 186 | 3,062 | R +54.5 |
| Russell County | 663 | 2,089 | 178 | 2,930 | R +48.7 |
| Mitchell County | 554 | 1,957 | 163 | 2,674 | R +52.5 |
| Ottawa County | 532 | 1,926 | 159 | 2,617 | R +53.3 |
| Greenwood County | 611 | 1,777 | 154 | 2,542 | R +45.8 |
| Ellsworth County | 706 | 1,635 | 151 | 2,492 | R +37.3 |
| Morris County | 795 | 1,490 | 148 | 2,433 | R +28.6 |
| Washington County | 415 | 1,863 | 146 | 2,424 | R +59.7 |
| Pawnee County | 685 | 1,582 | 147 | 2,414 | R +37.2 |
| Phillips County | 331 | 1,897 | 144 | 2,372 | R +66.0 |
| Sherman County | 408 | 1,752 | 139 | 2,299 | R +58.5 |
| Rooks County | 367 | 1,748 | 137 | 2,252 | R +61.3 |
| Harper County | 451 | 1,620 | 135 | 2,206 | R +53.0 |
| Republic County | 408 | 1,591 | 129 | 2,128 | R +55.6 |
| Norton County | 377 | 1,554 | 125 | 2,056 | R +57.2 |
| Gray County | 338 | 1,485 | 117 | 1,940 | R +59.1 |
| Scott County | 284 | 1,522 | 116 | 1,922 | R +64.4 |
| Grant County | 420 | 1,380 | 116 | 1,916 | R +50.1 |
| Barber County | 347 | 1,442 | 116 | 1,905 | R +57.5 |
| Smith County | 320 | 1,337 | 107 | 1,764 | R +57.7 |
| Stafford County | 372 | 1,214 | 102 | 1,688 | R +49.9 |
| Stevens County | 225 | 1,292 | 98 | 1,615 | R +66.0 |
| Osborne County | 309 | 1,154 | 95 | 1,558 | R +54.3 |
| Meade County | 244 | 1,148 | 90 | 1,482 | R +61.0 |
| Rush County | 297 | 1,025 | 86 | 1,408 | R +51.7 |
| Trego County | 281 | 1,017 | 84 | 1,382 | R +53.2 |
| Jewell County | 206 | 1,064 | 83 | 1,353 | R +63.4 |
| Chautauqua County | 214 | 1,052 | 82 | 1,348 | R +62.2 |
| Lincoln County | 267 | 974 | 80 | 1,321 | R +53.5 |
| Woodson County | 321 | 914 | 81 | 1,316 | R +45.1 |
| Decatur County | 232 | 948 | 76 | 1,256 | R +57.0 |
| Chase County | 378 | 798 | 76 | 1,252 | R +33.5 |
| Gove County | 183 | 989 | 76 | 1,248 | R +64.6 |
| Ness County | 150 | 1,015 | 75 | 1,240 | R +69.8 |
| Rawlins County | 210 | 940 | 74 | 1,224 | R +59.7 |
| Logan County | 197 | 941 | 73 | 1,211 | R +61.4 |
| Sheridan County | 150 | 974 | 74 | 1,198 | R +68.8 |
| Cheyenne County | 198 | 897 | 70 | 1,165 | R +60.0 |
| Elk County | 222 | 866 | 71 | 1,159 | R +55.6 |
| Edwards County | 251 | 813 | 69 | 1,133 | R +49.6 |
| Kearny County | 204 | 859 | 68 | 1,131 | R +57.9 |
| Graham County | 232 | 821 | 67 | 1,120 | R +52.5 |
| Haskell County | 218 | 826 | 68 | 1,112 | R +54.7 |
| Kiowa County | 170 | 774 | 62 | 1,006 | R +60.0 |
| Morton County | 147 | 715 | 56 | 918 | R +61.8 |
| Clark County | 167 | 681 | 56 | 904 | R +56.9 |
| Hodgeman County | 158 | 633 | 51 | 842 | R +56.4 |
| Comanche County | 146 | 588 | 48 | 782 | R +56.5 |
| Wichita County | 116 | 602 | 47 | 765 | R +63.5 |
| Lane County | 121 | 555 | 44 | 720 | R +60.3 |
| Wallace County | 59 | 589 | 42 | 690 | R +76.7 |
| Hamilton County | 148 | 487 | 41 | 676 | R +50.2 |
| Stanton County | 124 | 425 | 35 | 584 | R +51.5 |
| Greeley County | 84 | 383 | 30 | 497 | R +60.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +7.5 and R +10.2. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +2.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +2.3 |
| Blend of every leg | D +1.7 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +1.4 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +1.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +7.5 and R +10.2.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Luengo | Johnson | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||