2026 forecast · Kansas Commissioner Of Insurance
Dinah Sykes is slightly favored to win Kansas's commissioner of insurance race.
Dinah Sykes vs Dan Hawkins, an open seat. The model has Sykes ahead by 1.9 points, with a 61 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel D +1.9Updated October 22, 2026
Dinah Sykes
Democrat
48.9%
561,817 projected votes
Dan Hawkins
Republican
47.1%
540,569 projected votes
61%Sykes
39%Hawkins
Sykes slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Sykes wins about 61 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Sykes +161,561 net votes from 7 countiesStatewide D +1.9, a 21,247 vote marginHawkins +140,314 net votes from 98 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,147,820 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Dinah Sykes D | 561,817 | 48.9% |
| Dan Hawkins R | 540,569 | 47.1% |
| Ric Koehn | 45,433 | 4.0% |
| Total | 1,147,820 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
105 counties| County | Sykes | Hawkins | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 561,822 | 540,575 | 45,423 | 1,147,820 | D +1.9 |
| Johnson County | 182,232 | 97,519 | 11,529 | 291,280 | D +29.1 |
| Sedgwick County | 90,719 | 85,382 | 7,258 | 183,359 | D +2.9 |
| Shawnee County | 41,478 | 27,627 | 2,848 | 71,953 | D +19.3 |
| Douglas County | 40,293 | 10,434 | 2,091 | 52,818 | D +56.5 |
| Wyandotte County | 32,000 | 10,079 | 1,734 | 43,813 | D +50.0 |
| Leavenworth County | 14,464 | 15,737 | 1,245 | 31,446 | R +4.0 |
| Butler County | 9,556 | 16,688 | 1,082 | 27,326 | R +26.1 |
| Reno County | 8,861 | 13,596 | 925 | 23,382 | R +20.3 |
| Riley County | 13,760 | 8,630 | 923 | 23,313 | D +22.0 |
| Saline County | 8,186 | 11,251 | 801 | 20,238 | R +15.1 |
| Miami County | 5,637 | 9,125 | 608 | 15,370 | R +22.7 |
| Crawford County | 6,345 | 7,234 | 559 | 14,138 | R +6.3 |
| Harvey County | 6,310 | 7,238 | 558 | 14,106 | R +6.6 |
| McPherson County | 4,126 | 7,820 | 493 | 12,439 | R +29.7 |
| Cowley County | 4,341 | 7,309 | 480 | 12,130 | R +24.5 |
| Ellis County | 4,463 | 7,019 | 474 | 11,956 | R +21.4 |
| Pottawatomie County | 3,602 | 7,419 | 455 | 11,476 | R +33.3 |
| Lyon County | 5,867 | 5,117 | 453 | 11,437 | D +6.6 |
| Montgomery County | 3,089 | 7,587 | 440 | 11,116 | R +40.5 |
| Franklin County | 4,136 | 6,169 | 425 | 10,730 | R +18.9 |
| Barton County | 2,543 | 6,335 | 366 | 9,244 | R +41.0 |
| Finney County | 3,580 | 5,143 | 359 | 9,082 | R +17.2 |
| Sumner County | 2,831 | 5,794 | 355 | 8,980 | R +33.0 |
| Jefferson County | 3,349 | 4,667 | 330 | 8,346 | R +15.8 |
| Geary County | 3,983 | 4,002 | 329 | 8,314 | R +0.2 |
| Dickinson County | 2,076 | 5,429 | 309 | 7,814 | R +42.9 |
| Cherokee County | 2,146 | 5,001 | 294 | 7,441 | R +38.4 |
| Ford County | 2,782 | 4,352 | 294 | 7,428 | R +21.1 |
| Labette County | 2,547 | 4,109 | 274 | 6,930 | R +22.5 |
| Osage County | 2,351 | 4,205 | 270 | 6,826 | R +27.2 |
| Atchison County | 2,304 | 3,698 | 246 | 6,248 | R +22.3 |
| Neosho County | 1,860 | 3,781 | 233 | 5,874 | R +32.7 |
| Bourbon County | 1,490 | 3,909 | 223 | 5,622 | R +43.0 |
| Jackson County | 2,039 | 3,294 | 219 | 5,552 | R +22.6 |
| Marion County | 1,511 | 3,491 | 206 | 5,208 | R +38.0 |
| Nemaha County | 1,084 | 3,614 | 194 | 4,892 | R +51.7 |
| Allen County | 1,528 | 3,041 | 189 | 4,758 | R +31.8 |
| Marshall County | 1,331 | 2,768 | 169 | 4,268 | R +33.7 |
| Linn County | 995 | 3,084 | 167 | 4,246 | R +49.2 |
| Seward County | 1,514 | 2,302 | 157 | 3,973 | R +19.8 |
| Coffey County | 1,000 | 2,614 | 149 | 3,763 | R +42.9 |
| Brown County | 1,209 | 2,335 | 146 | 3,690 | R +30.5 |
| Clay County | 979 | 2,473 | 142 | 3,594 | R +41.6 |
| Cloud County | 931 | 2,488 | 141 | 3,560 | R +43.8 |
| Pratt County | 1,035 | 2,375 | 140 | 3,550 | R +37.8 |
| Rice County | 947 | 2,395 | 138 | 3,480 | R +41.6 |
| Wabaunsee County | 1,053 | 2,237 | 135 | 3,425 | R +34.6 |
| Wilson County | 802 | 2,452 | 134 | 3,388 | R +48.7 |
| Kingman County | 927 | 2,315 | 134 | 3,376 | R +41.1 |
| Anderson County | 808 | 2,299 | 128 | 3,235 | R +46.1 |
| Thomas County | 717 | 2,390 | 128 | 3,235 | R +51.7 |
| Doniphan County | 658 | 2,284 | 120 | 3,062 | R +53.1 |
| Russell County | 720 | 2,094 | 116 | 2,930 | R +46.9 |
| Mitchell County | 604 | 1,964 | 106 | 2,674 | R +50.9 |
| Ottawa County | 579 | 1,934 | 104 | 2,617 | R +51.8 |
| Greenwood County | 663 | 1,779 | 100 | 2,542 | R +43.9 |
| Ellsworth County | 762 | 1,631 | 99 | 2,492 | R +34.9 |
| Morris County | 855 | 1,482 | 96 | 2,433 | R +25.8 |
| Washington County | 453 | 1,876 | 95 | 2,424 | R +58.7 |
| Pawnee County | 739 | 1,579 | 96 | 2,414 | R +34.8 |
| Phillips County | 363 | 1,915 | 94 | 2,372 | R +65.4 |
| Sherman County | 445 | 1,763 | 91 | 2,299 | R +57.3 |
| Rooks County | 402 | 1,761 | 89 | 2,252 | R +60.4 |
| Harper County | 491 | 1,627 | 88 | 2,206 | R +51.5 |
| Republic County | 445 | 1,599 | 84 | 2,128 | R +54.2 |
| Norton County | 412 | 1,563 | 81 | 2,056 | R +56.0 |
| Gray County | 369 | 1,495 | 76 | 1,940 | R +58.0 |
| Scott County | 312 | 1,535 | 75 | 1,922 | R +63.6 |
| Grant County | 457 | 1,384 | 75 | 1,916 | R +48.4 |
| Barber County | 379 | 1,450 | 76 | 1,905 | R +56.2 |
| Smith County | 349 | 1,345 | 70 | 1,764 | R +56.5 |
| Stafford County | 404 | 1,217 | 67 | 1,688 | R +48.1 |
| Stevens County | 248 | 1,304 | 63 | 1,615 | R +65.4 |
| Osborne County | 337 | 1,159 | 62 | 1,558 | R +52.8 |
| Meade County | 267 | 1,156 | 59 | 1,482 | R +60.1 |
| Rush County | 324 | 1,028 | 56 | 1,408 | R +50.0 |
| Trego County | 307 | 1,021 | 54 | 1,382 | R +51.6 |
| Jewell County | 227 | 1,073 | 53 | 1,353 | R +62.5 |
| Chautauqua County | 234 | 1,061 | 53 | 1,348 | R +61.3 |
| Lincoln County | 291 | 978 | 52 | 1,321 | R +52.0 |
| Woodson County | 349 | 915 | 52 | 1,316 | R +43.0 |
| Decatur County | 253 | 953 | 50 | 1,256 | R +55.7 |
| Chase County | 408 | 795 | 49 | 1,252 | R +30.9 |
| Gove County | 201 | 997 | 50 | 1,248 | R +63.9 |
| Ness County | 165 | 1,026 | 49 | 1,240 | R +69.5 |
| Rawlins County | 229 | 946 | 49 | 1,224 | R +58.5 |
| Logan County | 215 | 948 | 48 | 1,211 | R +60.5 |
| Sheridan County | 166 | 984 | 48 | 1,198 | R +68.4 |
| Cheyenne County | 216 | 902 | 47 | 1,165 | R +58.9 |
| Elk County | 243 | 870 | 46 | 1,159 | R +54.2 |
| Edwards County | 273 | 815 | 45 | 1,133 | R +47.8 |
| Kearny County | 223 | 864 | 44 | 1,131 | R +56.7 |
| Graham County | 253 | 824 | 43 | 1,120 | R +51.0 |
| Haskell County | 237 | 830 | 45 | 1,112 | R +53.3 |
| Kiowa County | 186 | 780 | 40 | 1,006 | R +59.0 |
| Morton County | 162 | 720 | 36 | 918 | R +60.9 |
| Clark County | 183 | 685 | 36 | 904 | R +55.6 |
| Hodgeman County | 173 | 636 | 33 | 842 | R +55.1 |
| Comanche County | 160 | 591 | 31 | 782 | R +55.2 |
| Wichita County | 127 | 607 | 31 | 765 | R +62.7 |
| Lane County | 133 | 559 | 28 | 720 | R +59.2 |
| Wallace County | 66 | 597 | 27 | 690 | R +77.0 |
| Hamilton County | 161 | 489 | 26 | 676 | R +48.4 |
| Stanton County | 135 | 427 | 22 | 584 | R +49.9 |
| Greeley County | 92 | 386 | 19 | 497 | R +59.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +10.7 and R +7.0. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +2.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +3.1 |
| Blend of every leg | D +1.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +1.9 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +1.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +10.7 and R +7.0.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Sykes | Hawkins | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||