2026 forecast · Kansas Secretary Of State
Jennifer Day and Pat Proctor are in a toss up for Kansas's secretary of state.
Jennifer Day vs Pat Proctor, an open seat. The model has Day ahead by 0.4 points, with a 52 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel D +0.4Polls R +4.9Updated October 22, 2026
Jennifer Day
Democrat
48.0%
551,333 projected votes
Pat Proctor
Republican
47.7%
547,162 projected votes
52%Day
48%Proctor
Day slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Day wins about 52 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Day +150,808 net votes from 7 countiesStatewide D +0.4, a 4,169 vote marginProctor +146,639 net votes from 98 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,147,820 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Day D | 551,333 | 48.0% |
| Pat Proctor R | 547,162 | 47.7% |
| Scott E. Morgan | 49,324 | 4.3% |
| Total | 1,147,820 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
105 counties| County | Day | Proctor | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 551,332 | 547,163 | 49,325 | 1,147,820 | D +0.4 |
| Johnson County | 179,402 | 99,361 | 12,517 | 291,280 | D +27.5 |
| Sedgwick County | 88,886 | 86,593 | 7,880 | 183,359 | D +1.3 |
| Shawnee County | 40,763 | 28,098 | 3,092 | 71,953 | D +17.6 |
| Douglas County | 39,865 | 10,683 | 2,270 | 52,818 | D +55.3 |
| Wyandotte County | 31,624 | 10,306 | 1,883 | 43,813 | D +48.7 |
| Leavenworth County | 14,153 | 15,941 | 1,352 | 31,446 | R +5.7 |
| Butler County | 9,312 | 16,839 | 1,175 | 27,326 | R +27.5 |
| Reno County | 8,645 | 13,733 | 1,004 | 23,382 | R +21.8 |
| Riley County | 13,530 | 8,781 | 1,002 | 23,313 | D +20.4 |
| Saline County | 7,994 | 11,374 | 870 | 20,238 | R +16.7 |
| Miami County | 5,496 | 9,214 | 660 | 15,370 | R +24.2 |
| Crawford County | 6,206 | 7,325 | 607 | 14,138 | R +7.9 |
| Harvey County | 6,172 | 7,328 | 606 | 14,106 | R +8.2 |
| McPherson County | 4,019 | 7,886 | 534 | 12,439 | R +31.1 |
| Cowley County | 4,232 | 7,377 | 521 | 12,130 | R +25.9 |
| Ellis County | 4,353 | 7,089 | 514 | 11,956 | R +22.9 |
| Pottawatomie County | 3,506 | 7,477 | 493 | 11,476 | R +34.6 |
| Lyon County | 5,753 | 5,193 | 491 | 11,437 | D +4.9 |
| Montgomery County | 3,002 | 7,636 | 478 | 11,116 | R +41.7 |
| Franklin County | 4,036 | 6,233 | 461 | 10,730 | R +20.5 |
| Barton County | 2,471 | 6,375 | 398 | 9,244 | R +42.2 |
| Finney County | 3,495 | 5,198 | 389 | 9,082 | R +18.8 |
| Sumner County | 2,755 | 5,839 | 386 | 8,980 | R +34.3 |
| Jefferson County | 3,270 | 4,718 | 358 | 8,346 | R +17.3 |
| Geary County | 3,900 | 4,056 | 358 | 8,314 | R +1.9 |
| Dickinson County | 2,017 | 5,462 | 335 | 7,814 | R +44.1 |
| Cherokee County | 2,086 | 5,035 | 320 | 7,441 | R +39.6 |
| Ford County | 2,714 | 4,395 | 319 | 7,428 | R +22.6 |
| Labette County | 2,484 | 4,149 | 297 | 6,930 | R +24.0 |
| Osage County | 2,290 | 4,242 | 294 | 6,826 | R +28.6 |
| Atchison County | 2,246 | 3,734 | 268 | 6,248 | R +23.8 |
| Neosho County | 1,810 | 3,811 | 253 | 5,874 | R +34.1 |
| Bourbon County | 1,448 | 3,933 | 241 | 5,622 | R +44.2 |
| Jackson County | 1,988 | 3,325 | 239 | 5,552 | R +24.1 |
| Marion County | 1,469 | 3,515 | 224 | 5,208 | R +39.3 |
| Nemaha County | 1,051 | 3,631 | 210 | 4,892 | R +52.7 |
| Allen County | 1,488 | 3,066 | 204 | 4,758 | R +33.2 |
| Marshall County | 1,295 | 2,789 | 184 | 4,268 | R +35.0 |
| Linn County | 965 | 3,099 | 182 | 4,246 | R +50.3 |
| Seward County | 1,477 | 2,325 | 171 | 3,973 | R +21.3 |
| Coffey County | 972 | 2,629 | 162 | 3,763 | R +44.0 |
| Brown County | 1,177 | 2,355 | 158 | 3,690 | R +31.9 |
| Clay County | 951 | 2,488 | 155 | 3,594 | R +42.8 |
| Cloud County | 904 | 2,503 | 153 | 3,560 | R +44.9 |
| Pratt County | 1,006 | 2,392 | 152 | 3,550 | R +39.0 |
| Rice County | 920 | 2,410 | 150 | 3,480 | R +42.8 |
| Wabaunsee County | 1,024 | 2,254 | 147 | 3,425 | R +35.9 |
| Wilson County | 778 | 2,464 | 146 | 3,388 | R +49.8 |
| Kingman County | 901 | 2,330 | 145 | 3,376 | R +42.3 |
| Anderson County | 785 | 2,311 | 139 | 3,235 | R +47.2 |
| Thomas County | 695 | 2,401 | 139 | 3,235 | R +52.7 |
| Doniphan County | 638 | 2,293 | 131 | 3,062 | R +54.1 |
| Russell County | 699 | 2,105 | 126 | 2,930 | R +48.0 |
| Mitchell County | 586 | 1,973 | 115 | 2,674 | R +51.9 |
| Ottawa County | 562 | 1,943 | 112 | 2,617 | R +52.8 |
| Greenwood County | 644 | 1,789 | 109 | 2,542 | R +45.0 |
| Ellsworth County | 741 | 1,644 | 107 | 2,492 | R +36.2 |
| Morris County | 833 | 1,496 | 104 | 2,433 | R +27.2 |
| Washington County | 439 | 1,882 | 103 | 2,424 | R +59.5 |
| Pawnee County | 719 | 1,591 | 104 | 2,414 | R +36.1 |
| Phillips County | 351 | 1,919 | 102 | 2,372 | R +66.1 |
| Sherman County | 431 | 1,769 | 99 | 2,299 | R +58.2 |
| Rooks County | 389 | 1,766 | 97 | 2,252 | R +61.2 |
| Harper County | 476 | 1,634 | 96 | 2,206 | R +52.5 |
| Republic County | 431 | 1,605 | 92 | 2,128 | R +55.2 |
| Norton County | 399 | 1,569 | 88 | 2,056 | R +56.9 |
| Gray County | 358 | 1,500 | 82 | 1,940 | R +58.9 |
| Scott County | 301 | 1,539 | 82 | 1,922 | R +64.3 |
| Grant County | 443 | 1,391 | 82 | 1,916 | R +49.5 |
| Barber County | 368 | 1,456 | 81 | 1,905 | R +57.1 |
| Smith County | 338 | 1,350 | 76 | 1,764 | R +57.4 |
| Stafford County | 392 | 1,223 | 73 | 1,688 | R +49.2 |
| Stevens County | 239 | 1,306 | 70 | 1,615 | R +66.1 |
| Osborne County | 327 | 1,164 | 67 | 1,558 | R +53.8 |
| Meade County | 258 | 1,160 | 64 | 1,482 | R +60.9 |
| Rush County | 314 | 1,033 | 61 | 1,408 | R +51.1 |
| Trego County | 297 | 1,026 | 59 | 1,382 | R +52.7 |
| Jewell County | 219 | 1,076 | 58 | 1,353 | R +63.3 |
| Chautauqua County | 226 | 1,064 | 58 | 1,348 | R +62.1 |
| Lincoln County | 282 | 982 | 57 | 1,321 | R +53.0 |
| Woodson County | 339 | 920 | 57 | 1,316 | R +44.2 |
| Decatur County | 245 | 957 | 54 | 1,256 | R +56.6 |
| Chase County | 397 | 802 | 53 | 1,252 | R +32.3 |
| Gove County | 194 | 1,000 | 54 | 1,248 | R +64.6 |
| Ness County | 159 | 1,027 | 54 | 1,240 | R +70.0 |
| Rawlins County | 222 | 949 | 53 | 1,224 | R +59.4 |
| Logan County | 209 | 950 | 52 | 1,211 | R +61.3 |
| Sheridan County | 160 | 986 | 52 | 1,198 | R +69.0 |
| Cheyenne County | 210 | 905 | 50 | 1,165 | R +59.7 |
| Elk County | 235 | 874 | 50 | 1,159 | R +55.1 |
| Edwards County | 265 | 819 | 49 | 1,133 | R +48.9 |
| Kearny County | 216 | 867 | 48 | 1,131 | R +57.6 |
| Graham County | 245 | 827 | 48 | 1,120 | R +52.0 |
| Haskell County | 230 | 834 | 48 | 1,112 | R +54.3 |
| Kiowa County | 180 | 782 | 44 | 1,006 | R +59.8 |
| Morton County | 156 | 722 | 40 | 918 | R +61.6 |
| Clark County | 177 | 688 | 39 | 904 | R +56.5 |
| Hodgeman County | 167 | 639 | 36 | 842 | R +56.0 |
| Comanche County | 155 | 593 | 34 | 782 | R +56.1 |
| Wichita County | 123 | 609 | 33 | 765 | R +63.5 |
| Lane County | 128 | 560 | 32 | 720 | R +60.0 |
| Wallace County | 63 | 597 | 30 | 690 | R +77.3 |
| Hamilton County | 156 | 491 | 29 | 676 | R +49.5 |
| Stanton County | 131 | 429 | 24 | 584 | R +51.0 |
| Greeley County | 89 | 387 | 21 | 497 | R +60.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.0 and R +8.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +2.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +1.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.7 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +0.7 |
| With polls, 6% weight | D +0.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +9.0 and R +8.3.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Day | Proctor | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) for Jennifer Day campaign (D) | 542 RV | 2026-09-01 | 37 | 39 | R +2.0 |