2026 forecast · Iowa Treasurer
John Norwood is favored to win Iowa's treasurer race.
John Norwood vs Roby Smith, with Roby Smith running again. The model has Norwood ahead by 5.2 points, with a 80 percent chance of winning.
Lean DModel D +5.2Updated October 22, 2026
John Norwood
Democrat
51.6%
708,329 projected votes
Roby Smith
Republican
46.4%
637,075 projected votes
80%Norwood
20%Smith
Norwood favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Norwood wins about 80 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Norwood +187,111 net votes from 18 countiesStatewide D +5.2, a 71,246 vote marginSmith +115,865 net votes from 81 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,371,936 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| John Norwood D | 708,329 | 51.6% |
| Roby Smith R | 637,075 | 46.4% |
| Other candidates | 26,531 | 1.9% |
| Total | 1,371,936 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
99 counties| County | Norwood | Smith | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 708,325 | 637,079 | 26,527 | 1,371,931 | D +5.2 |
| Polk County | 140,508 | 69,685 | 4,146 | 214,339 | D +33.0 |
| Linn County | 64,925 | 36,191 | 1,994 | 103,110 | D +27.9 |
| Scott County | 42,301 | 29,757 | 1,422 | 73,480 | D +17.1 |
| Johnson County | 54,726 | 16,628 | 1,407 | 72,761 | D +52.4 |
| Black Hawk County | 30,966 | 21,406 | 1,032 | 53,404 | D +17.9 |
| Dallas County | 26,807 | 21,947 | 961 | 49,715 | D +9.8 |
| Dubuque County | 23,649 | 19,122 | 843 | 43,614 | D +10.4 |
| Story County | 26,762 | 15,593 | 835 | 43,190 | D +25.9 |
| Pottawattamie County | 17,464 | 16,987 | 680 | 35,131 | D +1.4 |
| Woodbury County | 16,475 | 17,685 | 674 | 34,834 | R +3.5 |
| Warren County | 12,820 | 12,962 | 508 | 26,290 | R +0.5 |
| Clinton County | 9,660 | 9,162 | 372 | 19,194 | D +2.6 |
| Cerro Gordo County | 10,182 | 8,282 | 364 | 18,828 | D +10.1 |
| Jasper County | 7,543 | 8,722 | 321 | 16,586 | R +7.1 |
| Marion County | 5,827 | 9,801 | 308 | 15,936 | R +24.9 |
| Sioux County | 2,600 | 12,974 | 307 | 15,881 | R +65.3 |
| Muscatine County | 7,979 | 7,403 | 302 | 15,684 | D +3.7 |
| Des Moines County | 8,093 | 7,096 | 299 | 15,488 | D +6.4 |
| Marshall County | 7,093 | 6,839 | 274 | 14,206 | D +1.8 |
| Webster County | 5,857 | 7,766 | 269 | 13,892 | R +13.7 |
| Lee County | 6,250 | 6,587 | 253 | 13,090 | R +2.6 |
| Boone County | 6,110 | 6,097 | 241 | 12,448 | D +0.1 |
| Benton County | 4,926 | 7,068 | 236 | 12,230 | R +17.5 |
| Wapello County | 5,333 | 6,549 | 234 | 12,116 | R +10.0 |
| Bremer County | 5,730 | 6,123 | 234 | 12,087 | R +3.3 |
| Plymouth County | 3,040 | 7,827 | 214 | 11,081 | R +43.2 |
| Winneshiek County | 5,518 | 4,469 | 197 | 10,184 | D +10.3 |
| Washington County | 4,193 | 5,270 | 187 | 9,650 | R +11.2 |
| Dickinson County | 3,340 | 5,639 | 177 | 9,156 | R +25.1 |
| Mahaska County | 2,593 | 6,373 | 176 | 9,142 | R +41.4 |
| Carroll County | 3,153 | 5,761 | 176 | 9,090 | R +28.7 |
| Jones County | 4,132 | 4,727 | 175 | 9,034 | R +6.6 |
| Buchanan County | 3,894 | 4,827 | 172 | 8,893 | R +10.5 |
| Cedar County | 4,112 | 4,387 | 167 | 8,666 | R +3.2 |
| Jackson County | 3,966 | 4,500 | 166 | 8,632 | R +6.2 |
| Poweshiek County | 4,118 | 4,081 | 161 | 8,360 | D +0.4 |
| Delaware County | 2,905 | 5,206 | 159 | 8,270 | R +27.8 |
| Fayette County | 3,530 | 4,557 | 159 | 8,246 | R +12.4 |
| Madison County | 3,202 | 4,815 | 158 | 8,175 | R +19.7 |
| Iowa County | 3,357 | 4,456 | 154 | 7,967 | R +13.8 |
| Henry County | 3,035 | 4,750 | 153 | 7,938 | R +21.6 |
| Clayton County | 3,212 | 4,471 | 151 | 7,834 | R +16.1 |
| Hardin County | 2,780 | 4,302 | 140 | 7,222 | R +21.1 |
| Tama County | 3,103 | 3,959 | 140 | 7,202 | R +11.9 |
| Clay County | 2,710 | 4,285 | 139 | 7,134 | R +22.1 |
| Jefferson County | 3,993 | 2,998 | 138 | 7,129 | D +14.0 |
| Kossuth County | 2,617 | 4,340 | 137 | 7,094 | R +24.3 |
| Butler County | 2,307 | 4,139 | 128 | 6,574 | R +27.9 |
| Mills County | 2,531 | 3,858 | 125 | 6,514 | R +20.4 |
| Harrison County | 2,290 | 3,897 | 122 | 6,309 | R +25.5 |
| Floyd County | 2,825 | 3,360 | 121 | 6,306 | R +8.5 |
| Hamilton County | 2,799 | 3,364 | 121 | 6,284 | R +9.0 |
| Allamakee County | 2,455 | 3,601 | 120 | 6,176 | R +18.6 |
| Buena Vista County | 2,416 | 3,606 | 120 | 6,142 | R +19.4 |
| O'Brien County | 1,522 | 4,428 | 117 | 6,067 | R +47.9 |
| Page County | 2,063 | 3,799 | 116 | 5,978 | R +29.1 |
| Grundy County | 2,029 | 3,736 | 113 | 5,878 | R +29.1 |
| Cass County | 2,193 | 3,515 | 112 | 5,820 | R +22.7 |
| Lyon County | 1,000 | 4,431 | 107 | 5,538 | R +62.0 |
| Guthrie County | 2,008 | 3,295 | 104 | 5,407 | R +23.8 |
| Crawford County | 1,939 | 3,267 | 102 | 5,308 | R +25.0 |
| Appanoose County | 1,822 | 3,377 | 102 | 5,301 | R +29.3 |
| Chickasaw County | 2,066 | 3,066 | 102 | 5,234 | R +19.1 |
| Shelby County | 1,733 | 3,389 | 100 | 5,222 | R +31.7 |
| Cherokee County | 1,682 | 3,309 | 99 | 5,090 | R +32.0 |
| Union County | 2,129 | 2,798 | 98 | 5,025 | R +13.3 |
| Hancock County | 1,574 | 3,139 | 93 | 4,806 | R +32.5 |
| Wright County | 1,759 | 2,940 | 93 | 4,792 | R +24.7 |
| Winnebago County | 1,947 | 2,676 | 92 | 4,715 | R +15.5 |
| Mitchell County | 1,866 | 2,731 | 91 | 4,688 | R +18.5 |
| Sac County | 1,299 | 3,054 | 87 | 4,440 | R +39.5 |
| Calhoun County | 1,571 | 2,626 | 83 | 4,280 | R +24.7 |
| Keokuk County | 1,326 | 2,829 | 82 | 4,237 | R +35.5 |
| Humboldt County | 1,315 | 2,790 | 81 | 4,186 | R +35.2 |
| Montgomery County | 1,410 | 2,584 | 78 | 4,072 | R +28.9 |
| Louisa County | 1,659 | 2,304 | 78 | 4,041 | R +16.0 |
| Franklin County | 1,544 | 2,372 | 78 | 3,994 | R +20.7 |
| Palo Alto County | 1,326 | 2,588 | 76 | 3,990 | R +31.6 |
| Greene County | 1,614 | 2,281 | 77 | 3,972 | R +16.8 |
| Emmet County | 1,348 | 2,413 | 74 | 3,835 | R +27.8 |
| Howard County | 1,604 | 2,129 | 73 | 3,806 | R +13.8 |
| Lucas County | 1,377 | 2,332 | 73 | 3,782 | R +25.3 |
| Clarke County | 1,421 | 2,219 | 72 | 3,712 | R +21.5 |
| Monona County | 1,294 | 2,336 | 71 | 3,701 | R +28.2 |
| Worth County | 1,552 | 1,873 | 68 | 3,493 | R +9.2 |
| Adair County | 1,260 | 2,080 | 66 | 3,406 | R +24.1 |
| Davis County | 1,002 | 2,258 | 64 | 3,324 | R +37.8 |
| Monroe County | 1,126 | 2,122 | 64 | 3,312 | R +30.1 |
| Decatur County | 1,053 | 2,031 | 60 | 3,144 | R +31.1 |
| Van Buren County | 985 | 1,994 | 59 | 3,038 | R +33.2 |
| Pocahontas County | 891 | 2,082 | 59 | 3,032 | R +39.3 |
| Ida County | 987 | 1,962 | 59 | 3,008 | R +32.4 |
| Fremont County | 982 | 1,921 | 57 | 2,960 | R +31.7 |
| Audubon County | 1,069 | 1,534 | 51 | 2,654 | R +17.5 |
| Wayne County | 659 | 1,900 | 51 | 2,610 | R +47.6 |
| Osceola County | 517 | 2,016 | 49 | 2,582 | R +58.0 |
| Taylor County | 663 | 1,797 | 50 | 2,510 | R +45.2 |
| Ringgold County | 766 | 1,422 | 43 | 2,231 | R +29.4 |
| Adams County | 661 | 1,077 | 34 | 1,772 | R +23.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +13.2 and R +2.8. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +6.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +9.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +8.5 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +5.3 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +5.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +13.2 and R +2.8.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Norwood | Smith | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||