2026 forecast · Iowa Auditor
Taylor Wettach is very likely to win Iowa's auditor race.
Taylor Wettach vs Chris Cournoyer, an open seat. The model has Wettach ahead by 6.9 points, with a 87 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +6.9Updated October 22, 2026
Taylor Wettach
Democrat
52.8%
724,182 projected votes
Chris Cournoyer
Republican
45.9%
630,048 projected votes
87%Wettach
13%Cournoyer
Wettach very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Wettach wins about 87 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Wettach +201,226 net votes from 19 countiesStatewide D +6.9, a 94,124 vote marginCournoyer +107,102 net votes from 80 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,371,936 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Wettach D | 724,182 | 52.8% |
| Chris Cournoyer R | 630,048 | 45.9% |
| Other candidates | 17,704 | 1.3% |
| Total | 1,371,936 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
99 counties| County | Wettach | Cournoyer | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 724,178 | 630,054 | 17,699 | 1,371,931 | D +6.9 |
| Polk County | 142,986 | 68,587 | 2,766 | 214,339 | D +34.7 |
| Linn County | 66,129 | 35,650 | 1,331 | 103,110 | D +29.6 |
| Scott County | 43,188 | 29,344 | 948 | 73,480 | D +18.8 |
| Johnson County | 55,508 | 16,314 | 939 | 72,761 | D +53.9 |
| Black Hawk County | 31,602 | 21,114 | 688 | 53,404 | D +19.6 |
| Dallas County | 27,400 | 21,673 | 642 | 49,715 | D +11.5 |
| Dubuque County | 24,175 | 18,876 | 563 | 43,614 | D +12.2 |
| Story County | 27,268 | 15,364 | 558 | 43,190 | D +27.6 |
| Pottawattamie County | 17,892 | 16,786 | 453 | 35,131 | D +3.1 |
| Woodbury County | 16,895 | 17,490 | 449 | 34,834 | R +1.7 |
| Warren County | 13,133 | 12,818 | 339 | 26,290 | D +1.2 |
| Clinton County | 9,893 | 9,053 | 248 | 19,194 | D +4.4 |
| Cerro Gordo County | 10,409 | 8,176 | 243 | 18,828 | D +11.9 |
| Jasper County | 7,740 | 8,632 | 214 | 16,586 | R +5.4 |
| Marion County | 6,006 | 9,725 | 205 | 15,936 | R +23.3 |
| Sioux County | 2,718 | 12,958 | 205 | 15,881 | R +64.5 |
| Muscatine County | 8,168 | 7,314 | 202 | 15,684 | D +5.5 |
| Des Moines County | 8,282 | 7,007 | 199 | 15,488 | D +8.2 |
| Marshall County | 7,263 | 6,760 | 183 | 14,206 | D +3.5 |
| Webster County | 6,021 | 7,692 | 179 | 13,892 | R +12.0 |
| Lee County | 6,411 | 6,511 | 168 | 13,090 | R +0.8 |
| Boone County | 6,260 | 6,027 | 161 | 12,448 | D +1.9 |
| Benton County | 5,065 | 7,007 | 158 | 12,230 | R +15.9 |
| Wapello County | 5,477 | 6,482 | 157 | 12,116 | R +8.3 |
| Bremer County | 5,875 | 6,056 | 156 | 12,087 | R +1.5 |
| Plymouth County | 3,152 | 7,786 | 143 | 11,081 | R +41.8 |
| Winneshiek County | 5,640 | 4,413 | 131 | 10,184 | D +12.0 |
| Washington County | 4,306 | 5,220 | 124 | 9,650 | R +9.5 |
| Dickinson County | 3,444 | 5,593 | 119 | 9,156 | R +23.5 |
| Mahaska County | 2,685 | 6,339 | 118 | 9,142 | R +40.0 |
| Carroll County | 3,254 | 5,719 | 117 | 9,090 | R +27.1 |
| Jones County | 4,240 | 4,677 | 117 | 9,034 | R +4.8 |
| Buchanan County | 3,998 | 4,780 | 115 | 8,893 | R +8.8 |
| Cedar County | 4,215 | 4,340 | 111 | 8,666 | R +1.4 |
| Jackson County | 4,071 | 4,450 | 111 | 8,632 | R +4.4 |
| Poweshiek County | 4,218 | 4,035 | 107 | 8,360 | D +2.2 |
| Delaware County | 2,995 | 5,168 | 107 | 8,270 | R +26.3 |
| Fayette County | 3,627 | 4,513 | 106 | 8,246 | R +10.8 |
| Madison County | 3,296 | 4,774 | 105 | 8,175 | R +18.1 |
| Iowa County | 3,448 | 4,416 | 103 | 7,967 | R +12.1 |
| Henry County | 3,126 | 4,710 | 102 | 7,938 | R +19.9 |
| Clayton County | 3,302 | 4,431 | 101 | 7,834 | R +14.4 |
| Hardin County | 2,863 | 4,266 | 93 | 7,222 | R +19.4 |
| Tama County | 3,187 | 3,922 | 93 | 7,202 | R +10.2 |
| Clay County | 2,794 | 4,248 | 92 | 7,134 | R +20.4 |
| Jefferson County | 4,080 | 2,957 | 92 | 7,129 | D +15.8 |
| Kossuth County | 2,698 | 4,305 | 91 | 7,094 | R +22.7 |
| Butler County | 2,381 | 4,108 | 85 | 6,574 | R +26.3 |
| Mills County | 2,608 | 3,823 | 83 | 6,514 | R +18.6 |
| Harrison County | 2,362 | 3,866 | 81 | 6,309 | R +23.8 |
| Floyd County | 2,899 | 3,326 | 81 | 6,306 | R +6.8 |
| Hamilton County | 2,875 | 3,329 | 80 | 6,284 | R +7.2 |
| Allamakee County | 2,526 | 3,570 | 80 | 6,176 | R +16.9 |
| Buena Vista County | 2,487 | 3,575 | 80 | 6,142 | R +17.7 |
| O'Brien County | 1,581 | 4,407 | 79 | 6,067 | R +46.6 |
| Page County | 2,129 | 3,771 | 78 | 5,978 | R +27.5 |
| Grundy County | 2,093 | 3,710 | 75 | 5,878 | R +27.5 |
| Cass County | 2,260 | 3,485 | 75 | 5,820 | R +21.1 |
| Lyon County | 1,044 | 4,423 | 71 | 5,538 | R +61.0 |
| Guthrie County | 2,068 | 3,269 | 70 | 5,407 | R +22.2 |
| Crawford County | 2,000 | 3,240 | 68 | 5,308 | R +23.4 |
| Appanoose County | 1,881 | 3,351 | 69 | 5,301 | R +27.7 |
| Chickasaw County | 2,126 | 3,040 | 68 | 5,234 | R +17.5 |
| Shelby County | 1,790 | 3,365 | 67 | 5,222 | R +30.2 |
| Cherokee County | 1,738 | 3,286 | 66 | 5,090 | R +30.4 |
| Union County | 2,189 | 2,771 | 65 | 5,025 | R +11.6 |
| Hancock County | 1,627 | 3,117 | 62 | 4,806 | R +31.0 |
| Wright County | 1,812 | 2,917 | 63 | 4,792 | R +23.1 |
| Winnebago County | 2,002 | 2,652 | 61 | 4,715 | R +13.8 |
| Mitchell County | 1,919 | 2,708 | 61 | 4,688 | R +16.8 |
| Sac County | 1,345 | 3,037 | 58 | 4,440 | R +38.1 |
| Calhoun County | 1,620 | 2,604 | 56 | 4,280 | R +23.0 |
| Keokuk County | 1,372 | 2,810 | 55 | 4,237 | R +34.0 |
| Humboldt County | 1,359 | 2,773 | 54 | 4,186 | R +33.8 |
| Montgomery County | 1,454 | 2,566 | 52 | 4,072 | R +27.3 |
| Louisa County | 1,708 | 2,281 | 52 | 4,041 | R +14.2 |
| Franklin County | 1,591 | 2,351 | 52 | 3,994 | R +19.0 |
| Palo Alto County | 1,369 | 2,570 | 51 | 3,990 | R +30.1 |
| Greene County | 1,660 | 2,260 | 52 | 3,972 | R +15.1 |
| Emmet County | 1,391 | 2,394 | 50 | 3,835 | R +26.2 |
| Howard County | 1,649 | 2,108 | 49 | 3,806 | R +12.1 |
| Lucas County | 1,420 | 2,313 | 49 | 3,782 | R +23.6 |
| Clarke County | 1,464 | 2,200 | 48 | 3,712 | R +19.8 |
| Monona County | 1,335 | 2,318 | 48 | 3,701 | R +26.6 |
| Worth County | 1,593 | 1,855 | 45 | 3,493 | R +7.5 |
| Adair County | 1,299 | 2,063 | 44 | 3,406 | R +22.4 |
| Davis County | 1,037 | 2,245 | 42 | 3,324 | R +36.3 |
| Monroe County | 1,164 | 2,106 | 42 | 3,312 | R +28.5 |
| Decatur County | 1,087 | 2,017 | 40 | 3,144 | R +29.6 |
| Van Buren County | 1,019 | 1,980 | 39 | 3,038 | R +31.6 |
| Pocahontas County | 922 | 2,070 | 40 | 3,032 | R +37.9 |
| Ida County | 1,021 | 1,948 | 39 | 3,008 | R +30.8 |
| Fremont County | 1,015 | 1,908 | 37 | 2,960 | R +30.2 |
| Audubon County | 1,101 | 1,520 | 33 | 2,654 | R +15.8 |
| Wayne County | 683 | 1,892 | 35 | 2,610 | R +46.3 |
| Osceola County | 539 | 2,010 | 33 | 2,582 | R +57.0 |
| Taylor County | 688 | 1,789 | 33 | 2,510 | R +43.9 |
| Ringgold County | 791 | 1,411 | 29 | 2,231 | R +27.8 |
| Adams County | 682 | 1,068 | 22 | 1,772 | R +21.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +14.8 and R +1.1. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +6.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +4.1 |
| Blend of every leg | D +7.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +7.0 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +6.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +14.8 and R +1.1.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Wettach | Cournoyer | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||