2026 forecast · Iowa Agriculture Commissioner
Chris Jones is slightly favored to win Iowa's agriculture commissioner race.
Chris Jones vs Mike Naig, with Mike Naig running again. The model has Jones ahead by 1.6 points, with a 60 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel D +1.6Polls R +4.1Updated October 22, 2026
Chris Jones
Democrat
49.7%
681,415 projected votes
Mike Naig
Republican
48.1%
660,086 projected votes
60%Jones
40%Naig
Jones slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Jones wins about 60 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Jones +159,548 net votes from 12 countiesStatewide D +1.6, a 21,331 vote marginNaig +138,217 net votes from 87 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,371,936 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Jones D | 681,415 | 49.7% |
| Mike Naig R | 660,086 | 48.1% |
| Other candidates | 30,434 | 2.2% |
| Total | 1,371,936 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
99 counties| County | Jones | Naig | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 681,414 | 660,083 | 30,434 | 1,371,931 | D +1.6 |
| Polk County | 136,379 | 73,205 | 4,755 | 214,339 | D +29.5 |
| Linn County | 62,884 | 37,939 | 2,287 | 103,110 | D +24.2 |
| Scott County | 40,785 | 31,065 | 1,630 | 73,480 | D +13.2 |
| Johnson County | 53,541 | 17,606 | 1,614 | 72,761 | D +49.4 |
| Black Hawk County | 29,869 | 22,351 | 1,184 | 53,404 | D +14.1 |
| Dallas County | 25,770 | 22,842 | 1,103 | 49,715 | D +5.9 |
| Dubuque County | 22,738 | 19,908 | 968 | 43,614 | D +6.5 |
| Story County | 25,898 | 16,333 | 959 | 43,190 | D +22.1 |
| Pottawattamie County | 16,727 | 17,624 | 780 | 35,131 | R +2.5 |
| Woodbury County | 15,749 | 18,313 | 772 | 34,834 | R +7.4 |
| Warren County | 12,271 | 13,436 | 583 | 26,290 | R +4.4 |
| Clinton County | 9,257 | 9,510 | 427 | 19,194 | R +1.3 |
| Cerro Gordo County | 9,789 | 8,622 | 417 | 18,828 | D +6.2 |
| Jasper County | 7,200 | 9,018 | 368 | 16,586 | R +11.0 |
| Marion County | 5,520 | 10,063 | 353 | 15,936 | R +28.5 |
| Sioux County | 2,418 | 13,111 | 352 | 15,881 | R +67.3 |
| Muscatine County | 7,650 | 7,687 | 347 | 15,684 | R +0.2 |
| Des Moines County | 7,769 | 7,376 | 343 | 15,488 | D +2.5 |
| Marshall County | 6,796 | 7,095 | 315 | 14,206 | R +2.1 |
| Webster County | 5,574 | 8,009 | 309 | 13,892 | R +17.5 |
| Lee County | 5,976 | 6,824 | 290 | 13,090 | R +6.5 |
| Boone County | 5,850 | 6,322 | 276 | 12,448 | R +3.8 |
| Benton County | 4,681 | 7,277 | 272 | 12,230 | R +21.2 |
| Wapello County | 5,083 | 6,764 | 269 | 12,116 | R +13.9 |
| Bremer County | 5,478 | 6,341 | 268 | 12,087 | R +7.1 |
| Plymouth County | 2,856 | 7,979 | 246 | 11,081 | R +46.2 |
| Winneshiek County | 5,306 | 4,652 | 226 | 10,184 | D +6.4 |
| Washington County | 3,996 | 5,440 | 214 | 9,650 | R +15.0 |
| Dickinson County | 3,163 | 5,789 | 204 | 9,156 | R +28.7 |
| Mahaska County | 2,439 | 6,501 | 202 | 9,142 | R +44.4 |
| Carroll County | 2,982 | 5,906 | 202 | 9,090 | R +32.2 |
| Jones County | 3,944 | 4,889 | 201 | 9,034 | R +10.5 |
| Buchanan County | 3,712 | 4,984 | 197 | 8,893 | R +14.3 |
| Cedar County | 3,932 | 4,543 | 191 | 8,666 | R +7.0 |
| Jackson County | 3,786 | 4,655 | 191 | 8,632 | R +10.1 |
| Poweshiek County | 3,943 | 4,232 | 185 | 8,360 | R +3.5 |
| Delaware County | 2,749 | 5,338 | 183 | 8,270 | R +31.3 |
| Fayette County | 3,362 | 4,702 | 182 | 8,246 | R +16.3 |
| Madison County | 3,040 | 4,953 | 182 | 8,175 | R +23.4 |
| Iowa County | 3,196 | 4,595 | 176 | 7,967 | R +17.6 |
| Henry County | 2,879 | 4,883 | 176 | 7,938 | R +25.3 |
| Clayton County | 3,054 | 4,606 | 174 | 7,834 | R +19.8 |
| Hardin County | 2,638 | 4,424 | 160 | 7,222 | R +24.7 |
| Tama County | 2,956 | 4,085 | 161 | 7,202 | R +15.7 |
| Clay County | 2,570 | 4,405 | 159 | 7,134 | R +25.7 |
| Jefferson County | 3,845 | 3,126 | 158 | 7,129 | D +10.1 |
| Kossuth County | 2,480 | 4,457 | 157 | 7,094 | R +27.9 |
| Butler County | 2,183 | 4,245 | 146 | 6,574 | R +31.4 |
| Mills County | 2,402 | 3,968 | 144 | 6,514 | R +24.1 |
| Harrison County | 2,169 | 4,000 | 140 | 6,309 | R +29.0 |
| Floyd County | 2,694 | 3,472 | 140 | 6,306 | R +12.3 |
| Hamilton County | 2,669 | 3,476 | 139 | 6,284 | R +12.8 |
| Allamakee County | 2,332 | 3,706 | 138 | 6,176 | R +22.3 |
| Buena Vista County | 2,294 | 3,711 | 137 | 6,142 | R +23.1 |
| O'Brien County | 1,427 | 4,506 | 134 | 6,067 | R +50.8 |
| Page County | 1,950 | 3,895 | 133 | 5,978 | R +32.5 |
| Grundy County | 1,918 | 3,830 | 130 | 5,878 | R +32.5 |
| Cass County | 2,079 | 3,612 | 129 | 5,820 | R +26.4 |
| Lyon County | 932 | 4,484 | 122 | 5,538 | R +64.1 |
| Guthrie County | 1,903 | 3,384 | 120 | 5,407 | R +27.4 |
| Crawford County | 1,836 | 3,355 | 117 | 5,308 | R +28.6 |
| Appanoose County | 1,722 | 3,461 | 118 | 5,301 | R +32.8 |
| Chickasaw County | 1,962 | 3,156 | 116 | 5,234 | R +22.8 |
| Shelby County | 1,637 | 3,470 | 115 | 5,222 | R +35.1 |
| Cherokee County | 1,588 | 3,388 | 114 | 5,090 | R +35.4 |
| Union County | 2,027 | 2,887 | 111 | 5,025 | R +17.1 |
| Hancock County | 1,486 | 3,213 | 107 | 4,806 | R +35.9 |
| Wright County | 1,666 | 3,019 | 107 | 4,792 | R +28.2 |
| Winnebago County | 1,852 | 2,758 | 105 | 4,715 | R +19.2 |
| Mitchell County | 1,772 | 2,811 | 105 | 4,688 | R +22.2 |
| Sac County | 1,223 | 3,118 | 99 | 4,440 | R +42.7 |
| Calhoun County | 1,488 | 2,697 | 95 | 4,280 | R +28.3 |
| Keokuk County | 1,251 | 2,892 | 94 | 4,237 | R +38.8 |
| Humboldt County | 1,240 | 2,853 | 93 | 4,186 | R +38.5 |
| Montgomery County | 1,333 | 2,649 | 90 | 4,072 | R +32.3 |
| Louisa County | 1,577 | 2,374 | 90 | 4,041 | R +19.7 |
| Franklin County | 1,465 | 2,440 | 89 | 3,994 | R +24.4 |
| Palo Alto County | 1,252 | 2,650 | 88 | 3,990 | R +35.0 |
| Greene County | 1,534 | 2,349 | 89 | 3,972 | R +20.5 |
| Emmet County | 1,275 | 2,475 | 85 | 3,835 | R +31.3 |
| Howard County | 1,527 | 2,195 | 84 | 3,806 | R +17.6 |
| Lucas County | 1,303 | 2,395 | 84 | 3,782 | R +28.9 |
| Clarke County | 1,348 | 2,282 | 82 | 3,712 | R +25.1 |
| Monona County | 1,223 | 2,395 | 83 | 3,701 | R +31.7 |
| Worth County | 1,480 | 1,935 | 78 | 3,493 | R +13.0 |
| Adair County | 1,194 | 2,136 | 76 | 3,406 | R +27.7 |
| Davis County | 944 | 2,307 | 73 | 3,324 | R +41.0 |
| Monroe County | 1,064 | 2,175 | 73 | 3,312 | R +33.5 |
| Decatur County | 995 | 2,080 | 69 | 3,144 | R +34.5 |
| Van Buren County | 929 | 2,041 | 68 | 3,038 | R +36.6 |
| Pocahontas County | 838 | 2,126 | 68 | 3,032 | R +42.5 |
| Ida County | 932 | 2,009 | 67 | 3,008 | R +35.8 |
| Fremont County | 928 | 1,967 | 65 | 2,960 | R +35.1 |
| Audubon County | 1,016 | 1,579 | 59 | 2,654 | R +21.2 |
| Wayne County | 618 | 1,934 | 58 | 2,610 | R +50.4 |
| Osceola County | 483 | 2,043 | 56 | 2,582 | R +60.4 |
| Taylor County | 623 | 1,831 | 56 | 2,510 | R +48.1 |
| Ringgold County | 724 | 1,458 | 49 | 2,231 | R +32.9 |
| Adams County | 627 | 1,106 | 39 | 1,772 | R +27.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.2 and R +6.1. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +6.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +5.8 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +2.6 |
| With polls, 15% weight | D +1.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +9.2 and R +6.1.
Polls of the race
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Jones | Naig | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R) | 500 LV | 2026-09-11 | 36 | 43 | R +7.0 |
| Change Research for Chris Jones campaign (D) | 1,071 LV | 2026-08-01 | 40 | 42 | R +2.0 |