2026 forecast · California Treasurer
Eleni Kounalakis is all but certain to win California's treasurer race.
Eleni Kounalakis vs Jennifer Hawks, an open seat. The model has Kounalakis ahead by 29.8 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +29.8Updated October 22, 2026
Eleni Kounalakis
Democrat
64.4%
8,688,428 projected votes
Jennifer Hawks
Republican
34.6%
4,673,596 projected votes
100%Kounalakis
0%Hawks
Kounalakis all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Kounalakis wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Kounalakis +4,178,002 net votes from 34 countiesStatewide D +29.7, a 4,014,833 vote marginHawks +163,169 net votes from 24 counties
Projected statewide vote
13,496,995 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Eleni Kounalakis D | 8,688,428 | 64.4% |
| Jennifer Hawks R | 4,673,596 | 34.6% |
| Other candidates | 134,969 | 1.0% |
| Total | 13,496,995 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
58 counties| County | Kounalakis | Hawks | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 8,688,430 | 4,673,597 | 134,968 | 13,496,995 | D +29.7 |
| Los Angeles County | 2,306,100 | 816,498 | 31,541 | 3,154,139 | D +47.2 |
| San Diego County | 762,881 | 478,764 | 12,542 | 1,254,187 | D +22.6 |
| Orange County | 619,888 | 537,047 | 11,686 | 1,168,621 | D +7.1 |
| Riverside County | 412,157 | 347,743 | 7,676 | 767,576 | D +8.4 |
| Santa Clara County | 485,045 | 161,092 | 6,527 | 652,664 | D +49.6 |
| San Bernardino County | 335,546 | 274,157 | 6,158 | 615,861 | D +10.0 |
| Alameda County | 491,507 | 96,740 | 5,942 | 594,189 | D +66.4 |
| Sacramento County | 364,117 | 203,131 | 5,730 | 572,978 | D +28.1 |
| Contra Costa County | 329,801 | 122,731 | 4,571 | 457,103 | D +45.3 |
| San Francisco County | 319,849 | 34,727 | 3,582 | 358,158 | D +79.6 |
| Ventura County | 190,355 | 133,778 | 3,274 | 327,407 | D +17.3 |
| San Mateo County | 228,575 | 58,236 | 2,897 | 289,708 | D +58.8 |
| Fresno County | 142,158 | 134,830 | 2,798 | 279,786 | D +2.6 |
| Kern County | 101,198 | 132,870 | 2,364 | 236,432 | R +13.4 |
| San Joaquin County | 123,745 | 98,105 | 2,241 | 224,091 | D +11.4 |
| Sonoma County | 166,944 | 50,728 | 2,198 | 219,870 | D +52.9 |
| Placer County | 90,535 | 108,173 | 2,007 | 200,715 | R +8.8 |
| Stanislaus County | 82,571 | 78,172 | 1,623 | 162,366 | D +2.7 |
| Solano County | 105,894 | 53,920 | 1,614 | 161,428 | D +32.2 |
| Santa Barbara County | 101,961 | 55,748 | 1,593 | 159,302 | D +29.0 |
| San Luis Obispo County | 74,413 | 56,512 | 1,323 | 132,248 | D +13.5 |
| Marin County | 107,548 | 19,813 | 1,286 | 128,647 | D +68.2 |
| Monterey County | 87,174 | 36,952 | 1,254 | 125,380 | D +40.1 |
| Santa Cruz County | 94,140 | 22,784 | 1,181 | 118,105 | D +60.4 |
| Tulare County | 49,449 | 64,504 | 1,151 | 115,104 | R +13.1 |
| El Dorado County | 43,005 | 52,376 | 963 | 96,344 | R +9.7 |
| Butte County | 40,795 | 41,129 | 828 | 82,752 | R +0.4 |
| Yolo County | 57,942 | 23,492 | 822 | 82,256 | D +41.9 |
| Shasta County | 24,978 | 50,079 | 758 | 75,815 | R +33.1 |
| Merced County | 37,299 | 33,173 | 712 | 71,184 | D +5.8 |
| Napa County | 39,222 | 17,240 | 571 | 57,033 | D +38.5 |
| Humboldt County | 36,657 | 18,521 | 558 | 55,736 | D +32.5 |
| Nevada County | 30,975 | 22,720 | 542 | 54,237 | D +15.2 |
| Madera County | 18,315 | 26,421 | 451 | 45,187 | R +17.9 |
| Imperial County | 25,002 | 16,085 | 415 | 41,502 | D +21.5 |
| Kings County | 14,912 | 20,146 | 354 | 35,412 | R +14.8 |
| Mendocino County | 23,578 | 10,531 | 345 | 34,454 | D +37.9 |
| Sutter County | 13,064 | 19,373 | 328 | 32,765 | R +19.3 |
| Tuolumne County | 10,523 | 14,382 | 252 | 25,157 | R +15.3 |
| Yuba County | 9,883 | 14,621 | 247 | 24,751 | R +19.1 |
| Lake County | 12,608 | 10,434 | 232 | 23,274 | D +9.3 |
| San Benito County | 13,876 | 8,882 | 230 | 22,988 | D +21.7 |
| Tehama County | 7,022 | 15,564 | 228 | 22,814 | R +37.4 |
| Calaveras County | 8,720 | 13,765 | 227 | 22,712 | R +22.2 |
| Amador County | 7,483 | 12,031 | 198 | 19,712 | R +23.1 |
| Siskiyou County | 7,976 | 10,716 | 189 | 18,881 | R +14.5 |
| Lassen County | 2,577 | 7,359 | 100 | 10,036 | R +47.6 |
| Del Norte County | 4,126 | 5,246 | 95 | 9,467 | R +11.8 |
| Plumas County | 3,915 | 4,965 | 90 | 8,970 | R +11.7 |
| Glenn County | 2,919 | 5,802 | 88 | 8,809 | R +32.7 |
| Mariposa County | 3,425 | 4,807 | 83 | 8,315 | R +16.6 |
| Inyo County | 4,002 | 3,915 | 80 | 7,997 | D +1.1 |
| Colusa County | 2,296 | 3,729 | 61 | 6,086 | R +23.5 |
| Trinity County | 2,471 | 2,718 | 53 | 5,242 | R +4.7 |
| Mono County | 3,315 | 1,868 | 52 | 5,235 | D +27.6 |
| Modoc County | 940 | 2,621 | 36 | 3,597 | R +46.7 |
| Sierra County | 619 | 918 | 15 | 1,552 | R +19.3 |
| Alpine County | 439 | 213 | 6 | 658 | D +34.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +37.4 and D +22.1. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +35.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +31.4 |
| Blend of every leg | D +30.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +30.1 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +29.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +37.4 and D +22.1.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Kounalakis | Hawks | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||