2026 forecast · California Secretary Of State
Shirley Weber is all but certain to win California's secretary of state race.
Shirley Weber vs Don Wagner, with Shirley Weber running again. The model has Weber ahead by 32.9 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +32.9Updated October 22, 2026
Shirley Weber
Democrat
66.0%
8,902,787 projected votes
Don Wagner
Republican
33.0%
4,459,237 projected votes
100%Weber
0%Wagner
Weber all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Weber wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Weber +4,566,798 net votes from 35 countiesStatewide D +32.9, a 4,443,549 vote marginWagner +123,249 net votes from 23 counties
Projected statewide vote
13,496,995 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Shirley Weber D | 8,902,787 | 66.0% |
| Don Wagner R | 4,459,237 | 33.0% |
| Other candidates | 134,969 | 1.0% |
| Total | 13,496,995 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
58 counties| County | Weber | Wagner | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 8,902,784 | 4,459,235 | 134,976 | 13,496,995 | D +32.9 |
| Los Angeles County | 2,350,237 | 772,360 | 31,542 | 3,154,139 | D +50.0 |
| San Diego County | 785,103 | 456,542 | 12,542 | 1,254,187 | D +26.2 |
| Orange County | 642,036 | 514,899 | 11,686 | 1,168,621 | D +10.9 |
| Riverside County | 426,677 | 333,223 | 7,676 | 767,576 | D +12.2 |
| Santa Clara County | 493,860 | 152,277 | 6,527 | 652,664 | D +52.3 |
| San Bernardino County | 347,107 | 262,595 | 6,159 | 615,861 | D +13.7 |
| Alameda County | 497,397 | 90,850 | 5,942 | 594,189 | D +68.4 |
| Sacramento County | 373,835 | 193,413 | 5,730 | 572,978 | D +31.5 |
| Contra Costa County | 336,431 | 116,101 | 4,571 | 457,103 | D +48.2 |
| San Francisco County | 322,170 | 32,407 | 3,581 | 358,158 | D +80.9 |
| Ventura County | 196,311 | 127,821 | 3,275 | 327,407 | D +20.9 |
| San Mateo County | 231,989 | 54,822 | 2,897 | 289,708 | D +61.1 |
| Fresno County | 147,475 | 129,513 | 2,798 | 279,786 | D +6.4 |
| Kern County | 105,772 | 128,296 | 2,364 | 236,432 | R +9.5 |
| San Joaquin County | 127,893 | 93,957 | 2,241 | 224,091 | D +15.1 |
| Sonoma County | 169,852 | 47,819 | 2,199 | 219,870 | D +55.5 |
| Placer County | 94,415 | 104,293 | 2,007 | 200,715 | R +4.9 |
| Stanislaus County | 85,699 | 75,043 | 1,624 | 162,366 | D +6.6 |
| Solano County | 108,548 | 51,266 | 1,614 | 161,428 | D +35.5 |
| Santa Barbara County | 104,657 | 53,052 | 1,593 | 159,302 | D +32.4 |
| San Luis Obispo County | 76,869 | 54,056 | 1,323 | 132,248 | D +17.3 |
| Marin County | 108,827 | 18,533 | 1,287 | 128,647 | D +70.2 |
| Monterey County | 89,082 | 35,044 | 1,254 | 125,380 | D +43.1 |
| Santa Cruz County | 95,514 | 21,410 | 1,181 | 118,105 | D +62.7 |
| Tulare County | 51,671 | 62,282 | 1,151 | 115,104 | R +9.2 |
| El Dorado County | 44,876 | 50,504 | 964 | 96,344 | R +5.8 |
| Butte County | 42,380 | 39,545 | 827 | 82,752 | D +3.4 |
| Yolo County | 59,172 | 22,262 | 822 | 82,256 | D +44.9 |
| Shasta County | 26,358 | 48,699 | 758 | 75,815 | R +29.5 |
| Merced County | 38,636 | 31,836 | 712 | 71,184 | D +9.6 |
| Napa County | 40,119 | 16,344 | 570 | 57,033 | D +41.7 |
| Humboldt County | 37,579 | 17,600 | 557 | 55,736 | D +35.9 |
| Nevada County | 31,982 | 21,712 | 543 | 54,237 | D +18.9 |
| Madera County | 19,182 | 25,553 | 452 | 45,187 | R +14.1 |
| Imperial County | 25,744 | 15,343 | 415 | 41,502 | D +25.1 |
| Kings County | 15,590 | 19,468 | 354 | 35,412 | R +10.9 |
| Mendocino County | 24,123 | 9,987 | 344 | 34,454 | D +41.0 |
| Sutter County | 13,698 | 18,739 | 328 | 32,765 | R +15.4 |
| Tuolumne County | 11,012 | 13,894 | 251 | 25,157 | R +11.5 |
| Yuba County | 10,357 | 14,146 | 248 | 24,751 | R +15.3 |
| Lake County | 13,047 | 9,994 | 233 | 23,274 | D +13.1 |
| San Benito County | 14,282 | 8,476 | 230 | 22,988 | D +25.3 |
| Tehama County | 7,427 | 15,158 | 229 | 22,814 | R +33.9 |
| Calaveras County | 9,155 | 13,329 | 228 | 22,712 | R +18.4 |
| Amador County | 7,857 | 11,657 | 198 | 19,712 | R +19.3 |
| Siskiyou County | 8,341 | 10,351 | 189 | 18,881 | R +10.7 |
| Lassen County | 2,740 | 7,195 | 101 | 10,036 | R +44.4 |
| Del Norte County | 4,307 | 5,065 | 95 | 9,467 | R +8.0 |
| Plumas County | 4,089 | 4,791 | 90 | 8,970 | R +7.8 |
| Glenn County | 3,079 | 5,642 | 88 | 8,809 | R +29.1 |
| Mariposa County | 3,586 | 4,646 | 83 | 8,315 | R +12.8 |
| Inyo County | 4,155 | 3,762 | 80 | 7,997 | D +4.9 |
| Colusa County | 2,411 | 3,615 | 60 | 6,086 | R +19.8 |
| Trinity County | 2,572 | 2,618 | 52 | 5,242 | R +0.9 |
| Mono County | 3,405 | 1,778 | 52 | 5,235 | D +31.1 |
| Modoc County | 999 | 2,562 | 36 | 3,597 | R +43.5 |
| Sierra County | 648 | 888 | 16 | 1,552 | R +15.5 |
| Alpine County | 449 | 202 | 7 | 658 | D +37.6 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +40.6 and D +25.2. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +35.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +32.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +30.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +33.3 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +32.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +40.6 and D +25.2.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Weber | Wagner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||