2026 forecast · California Lieutenant Governor
Fiona Ma is all but certain to win California's lieutenant governor race.
Fiona Ma vs Gloria Romero, an open seat. The model has Ma ahead by 29.2 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +29.2Updated October 22, 2026
Fiona Ma
Democrat
64.1%
8,649,806 projected votes
Gloria Romero
Republican
34.9%
4,712,218 projected votes
100%Ma
0%Romero
Ma all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Ma wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Ma +4,108,029 net votes from 34 countiesStatewide D +29.2, a 3,937,593 vote marginRomero +170,436 net votes from 24 counties
Projected statewide vote
13,496,995 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Fiona Ma D | 8,649,806 | 64.1% |
| Gloria Romero R | 4,712,218 | 34.9% |
| Other candidates | 134,969 | 1.0% |
| Total | 13,496,995 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
58 counties| County | Ma | Romero | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 8,649,809 | 4,712,216 | 134,970 | 13,496,995 | D +29.2 |
| Los Angeles County | 2,297,891 | 824,706 | 31,542 | 3,154,139 | D +46.7 |
| San Diego County | 758,884 | 482,761 | 12,542 | 1,254,187 | D +22.0 |
| Orange County | 615,982 | 540,953 | 11,686 | 1,168,621 | D +6.4 |
| Riverside County | 409,597 | 350,304 | 7,675 | 767,576 | D +7.7 |
| Santa Clara County | 483,399 | 162,739 | 6,526 | 652,664 | D +49.1 |
| San Bernardino County | 333,497 | 276,205 | 6,159 | 615,861 | D +9.3 |
| Alameda County | 490,405 | 97,842 | 5,942 | 594,189 | D +66.1 |
| Sacramento County | 362,345 | 204,903 | 5,730 | 572,978 | D +27.5 |
| Contra Costa County | 328,583 | 123,949 | 4,571 | 457,103 | D +44.8 |
| San Francisco County | 319,422 | 35,155 | 3,581 | 358,158 | D +79.4 |
| Ventura County | 189,288 | 134,845 | 3,274 | 327,407 | D +16.6 |
| San Mateo County | 227,943 | 58,868 | 2,897 | 289,708 | D +58.4 |
| Fresno County | 141,219 | 135,769 | 2,798 | 279,786 | D +1.9 |
| Kern County | 100,419 | 133,649 | 2,364 | 236,432 | R +14.1 |
| San Joaquin County | 123,002 | 98,848 | 2,241 | 224,091 | D +10.8 |
| Sonoma County | 166,414 | 51,257 | 2,199 | 219,870 | D +52.4 |
| Placer County | 89,866 | 108,842 | 2,007 | 200,715 | R +9.4 |
| Stanislaus County | 82,026 | 78,717 | 1,623 | 162,366 | D +2.0 |
| Solano County | 105,408 | 54,405 | 1,615 | 161,428 | D +31.6 |
| Santa Barbara County | 101,471 | 56,238 | 1,593 | 159,302 | D +28.4 |
| San Luis Obispo County | 73,977 | 56,948 | 1,323 | 132,248 | D +12.9 |
| Marin County | 107,320 | 20,041 | 1,286 | 128,647 | D +67.8 |
| Monterey County | 86,821 | 37,305 | 1,254 | 125,380 | D +39.5 |
| Santa Cruz County | 93,890 | 23,034 | 1,181 | 118,105 | D +60.0 |
| Tulare County | 49,069 | 64,884 | 1,151 | 115,104 | R +13.7 |
| El Dorado County | 42,685 | 52,696 | 963 | 96,344 | R +10.4 |
| Butte County | 40,517 | 41,407 | 828 | 82,752 | R +1.1 |
| Yolo County | 57,714 | 23,719 | 823 | 82,256 | D +41.3 |
| Shasta County | 24,752 | 50,305 | 758 | 75,815 | R +33.7 |
| Merced County | 37,061 | 33,411 | 712 | 71,184 | D +5.1 |
| Napa County | 39,059 | 17,403 | 571 | 57,033 | D +38.0 |
| Humboldt County | 36,490 | 18,688 | 558 | 55,736 | D +31.9 |
| Nevada County | 30,797 | 22,898 | 542 | 54,237 | D +14.6 |
| Madera County | 18,168 | 26,567 | 452 | 45,187 | R +18.6 |
| Imperial County | 24,869 | 16,218 | 415 | 41,502 | D +20.8 |
| Kings County | 14,796 | 20,262 | 354 | 35,412 | R +15.4 |
| Mendocino County | 23,479 | 10,630 | 345 | 34,454 | D +37.3 |
| Sutter County | 12,958 | 19,479 | 328 | 32,765 | R +19.9 |
| Tuolumne County | 10,441 | 14,464 | 252 | 25,157 | R +16.0 |
| Yuba County | 9,803 | 14,700 | 248 | 24,751 | R +19.8 |
| Lake County | 12,530 | 10,511 | 233 | 23,274 | D +8.7 |
| San Benito County | 13,802 | 8,956 | 230 | 22,988 | D +21.1 |
| Tehama County | 6,957 | 15,629 | 228 | 22,814 | R +38.0 |
| Calaveras County | 8,648 | 13,837 | 227 | 22,712 | R +22.9 |
| Amador County | 7,421 | 12,094 | 197 | 19,712 | R +23.7 |
| Siskiyou County | 7,914 | 10,778 | 189 | 18,881 | R +15.2 |
| Lassen County | 2,551 | 7,384 | 101 | 10,036 | R +48.2 |
| Del Norte County | 4,095 | 5,278 | 94 | 9,467 | R +12.5 |
| Plumas County | 3,886 | 4,995 | 89 | 8,970 | R +12.4 |
| Glenn County | 2,893 | 5,828 | 88 | 8,809 | R +33.3 |
| Mariposa County | 3,398 | 4,834 | 83 | 8,315 | R +17.3 |
| Inyo County | 3,975 | 3,942 | 80 | 7,997 | D +0.4 |
| Colusa County | 2,277 | 3,748 | 61 | 6,086 | R +24.2 |
| Trinity County | 2,454 | 2,736 | 52 | 5,242 | R +5.4 |
| Mono County | 3,299 | 1,884 | 52 | 5,235 | D +27.0 |
| Modoc County | 931 | 2,630 | 36 | 3,597 | R +47.3 |
| Sierra County | 614 | 923 | 15 | 1,552 | R +19.9 |
| Alpine County | 437 | 215 | 6 | 658 | D +33.7 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +36.9 and D +21.5. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +35.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +29.4 |
| Blend of every leg | D +29.5 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +29.5 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +29.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +36.9 and D +21.5.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Ma | Romero | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||