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GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 ballot measure forecast

Tennessee Amendment 3

Marsy's Law crime victims' rights

Rewrites and expands the constitutional list of crime victims' rights, including notice, being heard, restitution and a speedy trial. The forecast has Yes at 69.0 percent against the 53.2 percent it needs, a 95% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCriminal justiceUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
95%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.0%
80% range 57 to 79
Needs
53.2%
a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 53.2
2035506580
History and structure
69.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
69.0% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Must receive a majority of all votes cast in the governor's race, not just a majority of votes on the amendment.
The campaign

No visible campaign; some question cost implications.

Also on the Tennessee ballot

Amendment 1
Remove right to bail for specified serious offenses
>99%
Amendment 2
Ban a state property tax
98%

Amendment 3 by county

Anderson CountyBedford CountyBenton CountyBledsoe CountyBlount CountyBradley CountyCampbell CountyCannon CountyCarroll CountyCarter CountyCheatham CountyChester CountyClaiborne CountyClay CountyCocke CountyCoffee CountyCrockett CountyCumberland CountyDavidson CountyDecatur CountyDeKalb CountyDickson CountyDyer CountyFayette CountyFentress CountyFranklin CountyGibson CountyGiles CountyGrainger CountyGreene CountyGrundy CountyHamblen CountyHamilton CountyHancock CountyHardeman CountyHardin CountyHawkins CountyHaywood CountyHenderson CountyHenry CountyHickman CountyHouston CountyHumphreys CountyJackson CountyJefferson CountyJohnson CountyKnox CountyLake CountyLauderdale CountyLawrence CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyLoudon CountyMcMinn CountyMcNairy CountyMacon CountyMadison CountyMarion CountyMarshall CountyMaury CountyMeigs CountyMonroe CountyMontgomery CountyMoore CountyMorgan CountyObion CountyOverton CountyPerry CountyPickett CountyPolk CountyPutnam CountyRhea CountyRoane CountyRobertson CountyRutherford CountyScott CountySequatchie CountySevier CountyShelby CountySmith CountyStewart CountySullivan CountySumner CountyTipton CountyTrousdale CountyUnicoi CountyUnion CountyVan Buren CountyWarren CountyWashington CountyWayne CountyWeakley CountyWhite CountyWilliamson CountyWilson CountyShelbyDavidsonKnoxHamiltonWilliamsonSumnerMontgomerySullivanBlountWashingtonMauryMadison
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Shelby County: Yes +98,176Davidson County: Yes +84,410Knox County: Yes +60,762Hamilton County: Yes +47,347Williamson County: Yes +38,041Rutherford County: Yes +37,749Sumner County: Yes +24,991Montgomery County: Yes +20,941Wilson County: Yes +20,837Sullivan County: Yes +19,790Blount County: Yes +18,104Washington County: Yes +16,620Maury County: Yes +13,804Bradley County: Yes +12,461Madison County: Yes +11,354Sevier County: Yes +11,073Anderson County: Yes +9,696Putnam County: Yes +9,519Cumberland County: Yes +9,265Robertson County: Yes +8,763Loudon County: Yes +8,598Greene County: Yes +8,223Roane County: Yes +7,214Tipton County: Yes +7,138Hawkins County: Yes +6,772Carter County: Yes +6,748Jefferson County: Yes +6,546Coffee County: Yes +6,538Hamblen County: Yes +6,519Dickson County: Yes +6,486Fayette County: Yes +6,343McMinn County: Yes +6,252Gibson County: Yes +5,848Monroe County: Yes +5,684Franklin County: Yes +5,341Cheatham County: Yes +5,327Bedford County: Yes +5,258Lawrence County: Yes +4,982Warren County: Yes +4,374Lincoln County: Yes +4,326Marshall County: Yes +4,208Cocke County: Yes +4,050Dyer County: Yes +4,003Henry County: Yes +3,975Campbell County: Yes +3,842Rhea County: Yes +3,796Weakley County: Yes +3,778Giles County: Yes +3,623Marion County: Yes +3,607Obion County: Yes +3,526Claiborne County: Yes +3,421White County: Yes +3,349Carroll County: Yes +3,284Henderson County: Yes +3,161Hardin County: Yes +3,131McNairy County: Yes +3,108Overton County: Yes +2,854Hickman County: Yes +2,753Grainger County: Yes +2,712Hardeman County: Yes +2,705Fentress County: Yes +2,500Macon County: Yes +2,472DeKalb County: Yes +2,450Smith County: Yes +2,443Lauderdale County: Yes +2,391Johnson County: Yes +2,311Unicoi County: Yes +2,307Morgan County: Yes +2,300Polk County: Yes +2,258Humphreys County: Yes +2,154Union County: Yes +2,119Chester County: Yes +2,082Sequatchie County: Yes +2,064Scott County: Yes +1,974Benton County: Yes +1,916Haywood County: Yes +1,907Wayne County: Yes +1,794Stewart County: Yes +1,788Cannon County: Yes +1,785Bledsoe County: Yes +1,689Grundy County: Yes +1,637Meigs County: Yes +1,575Crockett County: Yes +1,561Lewis County: Yes +1,550Decatur County: Yes +1,490Jackson County: Yes +1,481Trousdale County: Yes +1,091Houston County: Yes +1,060Perry County: Yes +957Moore County: Yes +951Clay County: Yes +912Van Buren County: Yes +853Pickett County: Yes +796Hancock County: Yes +666Lake County: Yes +586
Yes +826,976 net votes from 95 countiesStatewide Yes +38.0, a 826,976 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

2,176,538 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,501,75769.0%
No674,78131.0%
Total2,176,538100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Shelby County178,28480,108258,39269.0%
Davidson County153,28568,875222,16069.0%
Knox County110,34249,580159,92269.0%
Hamilton County85,98038,633124,61369.0%
Williamson County69,08131,040100,12169.0%
Rutherford County68,55030,80199,35169.0%
Sumner County45,38220,39165,77369.0%
Montgomery County38,02717,08655,11369.0%
Wilson County37,83917,00254,84169.0%
Sullivan County35,93816,14852,08669.0%
Blount County32,87614,77247,64869.0%
Washington County30,18113,56143,74269.0%
Maury County25,06711,26336,33069.0%
Bradley County22,62910,16832,79769.0%
Madison County20,6199,26529,88469.0%
Sevier County20,1079,03429,14169.0%
Anderson County17,6087,91225,52069.0%
Putnam County17,2877,76825,05569.0%
Cumberland County16,8257,56024,38569.0%
Robertson County15,9137,15023,06369.0%
Loudon County15,6137,01522,62869.0%
Greene County14,9326,70921,64169.0%
Roane County13,1015,88718,98869.0%
Tipton County12,9625,82418,78669.0%
Hawkins County12,2975,52517,82269.0%
Carter County12,2545,50617,76069.0%
Jefferson County11,8885,34217,23069.0%
Coffee County11,8725,33417,20669.0%
Hamblen County11,8395,32017,15969.0%
Dickson County11,7795,29317,07269.0%
Fayette County11,5195,17616,69569.0%
McMinn County11,3535,10116,45469.0%
Gibson County10,6204,77215,39269.0%
Monroe County10,3214,63714,95869.0%
Franklin County9,6984,35714,05569.0%
Cheatham County9,6744,34714,02169.0%
Bedford County9,5484,29013,83869.0%
Lawrence County9,0484,06613,11469.0%
Warren County7,9423,56811,51069.0%
Lincoln County7,8563,53011,38669.0%
Marshall County7,6413,43311,07469.0%
Cocke County7,3543,30410,65869.0%
Dyer County7,2693,26610,53569.0%
Henry County7,2193,24410,46369.0%
Campbell County6,9773,13510,11269.0%
Rhea County6,8933,0979,99069.0%
Weakley County6,8613,0839,94469.0%
Giles County6,5792,9569,53569.0%
Marion County6,5512,9449,49569.0%
Obion County6,4042,8789,28269.0%
Claiborne County6,2132,7929,00569.0%
White County6,0812,7328,81369.0%
Carroll County5,9642,6808,64469.0%
Henderson County5,7402,5798,31969.0%
Hardin County5,6852,5548,23969.0%
McNairy County5,6452,5378,18269.0%
Overton County5,1832,3297,51269.0%
Hickman County4,9992,2467,24569.0%
Grainger County4,9252,2137,13869.0%
Hardeman County4,9122,2077,11969.0%
Fentress County4,5402,0406,58069.0%
Macon County4,4902,0186,50869.0%
DeKalb County4,4491,9996,44869.0%
Smith County4,4371,9946,43169.0%
Lauderdale County4,3421,9516,29369.0%
Johnson County4,1971,8866,08369.0%
Unicoi County4,1901,8836,07369.0%
Morgan County4,1771,8776,05469.0%
Polk County4,1011,8435,94469.0%
Humphreys County3,9111,7575,66869.0%
Union County3,8481,7295,57769.0%
Chester County3,7821,7005,48269.0%
Sequatchie County3,7491,6855,43469.0%
Scott County3,5851,6115,19669.0%
Benton County3,4801,5645,04469.0%
Haywood County3,4631,5565,01969.0%
Wayne County3,2571,4634,72069.0%
Stewart County3,2471,4594,70669.0%
Cannon County3,2411,4564,69769.0%
Bledsoe County3,0671,3784,44569.0%
Grundy County2,9721,3354,30769.0%
Meigs County2,8601,2854,14569.0%
Crockett County2,8351,2744,10969.0%
Lewis County2,8141,2644,07869.0%
Decatur County2,7051,2153,92069.0%
Jackson County2,6891,2083,89769.0%
Trousdale County1,9828912,87369.0%
Houston County1,9248642,78869.0%
Perry County1,7397822,52169.0%
Moore County1,7287772,50569.0%
Clay County1,6567442,40069.0%
Van Buren County1,5496962,24569.0%
Pickett County1,4466502,09669.0%
Hancock County1,2105441,75469.0%
Lake County1,0644781,54269.0%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 53.2 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 3 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Tennessee's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theballotbrief.com, tennesseelookout.com, fox17.com. All measures.