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2026 ballot measure forecast

South Dakota Constitutional Amendment L

Require 60% to pass constitutional amendments

Raises the vote needed to approve future constitutional amendments from a simple majority to 60% of votes cast. The forecast has Yes at 51.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 56% chance to pass.

Toss upConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureHigher bars to passUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
56%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
51.4%
80% range 38 to 65
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
51.4% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
51.4% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority to adopt. HJR 5003 (2025).
The campaign

Yes: Rep. John Hughes and GOP legislators. No: Voter Defense Association of South Dakota, Dakota Rural Action; The Fairness Project has spent about $260K on ads against.

Also on the South Dakota ballot

Constitutional Amendment I
Tie Medicaid expansion to federal funding level
85%
Constitutional Amendment J
Only U.S. citizens may vote
>99%
Constitutional Amendment K
Create trust for unclaimed property fund
91%

Constitutional Amendment L by county

Aurora CountyBeadle CountyBennett CountyBon Homme CountyBrookings CountyBrown CountyBrule CountyBuffalo CountyButte CountyCampbell CountyCharles Mix CountyClark CountyClay CountyCodington CountyCorson CountyCuster CountyDavison CountyDay CountyDeuel CountyDewey CountyDouglas CountyEdmunds CountyFall River CountyFaulk CountyGrant CountyGregory CountyHaakon CountyHamlin CountyHand CountyHanson CountyHarding CountyHughes CountyHutchinson CountyHyde CountyJackson CountyJerauld CountyJones CountyKingsbury CountyLake CountyLawrence CountyLincoln CountyLyman CountyMcCook CountyMcPherson CountyMarshall CountyMeade CountyMellette CountyMiner CountyMinnehaha CountyMoody CountyOglala Lakota CountyPennington CountyPerkins CountyPotter CountyRoberts CountySanborn CountySpink CountyStanley CountySully CountyTodd CountyTripp CountyTurner CountyUnion CountyWalworth CountyYankton CountyZiebach CountyMinnehahaPenningtonLincolnBrownBrookingsLawrenceMeadeCodingtonYanktonDavisonHughesUnion
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Meade County: Yes +1,613Codington County: Yes +886Butte County: Yes +802Pennington County: Yes +564Union County: Yes +549Hutchinson County: Yes +535Turner County: Yes +513Custer County: Yes +511Hamlin County: Yes +492Davison County: Yes +486Tripp County: Yes +460Beadle County: Yes +457Fall River County: Yes +442Lawrence County: Yes +434Douglas County: Yes +377Walworth County: Yes +374Gregory County: Yes +359Bon Homme County: Yes +349Lincoln County: Yes +342Perkins County: Yes +340Grant County: Yes +319Haakon County: Yes +319Edmunds County: Yes +318McCook County: Yes +307Hanson County: Yes +285Charles Mix County: Yes +276McPherson County: Yes +271Harding County: Yes +266Deuel County: Yes +264Hand County: Yes +241Potter County: Yes +239Kingsbury County: Yes +224Clark County: Yes +220Hughes County: Yes +211Faulk County: Yes +208Spink County: Yes +186Brown County: Yes +185Brule County: Yes +182Aurora County: Yes +174Campbell County: Yes +172Lake County: Yes +160Stanley County: Yes +155Sanborn County: Yes +154Sully County: Yes +142Jones County: Yes +136Miner County: Yes +109Moody County: Yes +95Lyman County: Yes +91Hyde County: Yes +89Yankton County: Yes +75Jerauld County: Yes +74Day County: Yes +65Jackson County: Yes +46Bennett County: Yes +11Minnehaha County: No +3,685Oglala Lakota County: No +1,338Clay County: No +666Todd County: No +663Brookings County: No +358Dewey County: No +238Buffalo County: No +85Ziebach County: No +61Corson County: No +51Roberts County: No +14Mellette County: No +10
Yes +17,154 net votes from 54 countiesStatewide Yes +2.8, a 9,985 vote marginNo +7,169 net votes from 11 counties

Projected vote

360,691 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes185,33851.4%
No175,35348.6%
Total360,691100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Minnehaha County37,18940,87478,06347.6%
Pennington County23,85923,29547,15450.6%
Lincoln County14,92114,57929,50050.6%
Brown County7,3767,19114,56750.6%
Brookings County6,3666,72413,09048.6%
Lawrence County6,5566,12212,67851.7%
Meade County6,9505,33712,28756.6%
Codington County6,1035,21711,32053.9%
Yankton County4,6604,5859,24550.4%
Davison County4,0523,5667,61853.2%
Hughes County3,8143,6037,41751.4%
Union County3,8433,2947,13753.8%
Beadle County3,2842,8276,11153.7%
Clay County2,3162,9825,29843.7%
Custer County2,7472,2364,98355.1%
Lake County2,5662,4064,97251.6%
Butte County2,5261,7244,25059.4%
Turner County2,1661,6533,81956.7%
Fall River County2,0241,5823,60656.1%
Roberts County1,7791,7933,57249.8%
Hutchinson County1,8471,3123,15958.5%
Charles Mix County1,7161,4403,15654.4%
Grant County1,7261,4073,13355.1%
Oglala Lakota County8632,2013,06428.2%
Spink County1,4291,2432,67253.5%
Hamlin County1,5731,0812,65459.3%
Moody County1,3731,2782,65151.8%
Bon Homme County1,4891,1402,62956.6%
McCook County1,4101,1032,51356.1%
Day County1,2671,2022,46951.3%
Kingsbury County1,3201,0962,41654.6%
Tripp County1,3699092,27860.1%
Walworth County1,2408662,10658.9%
Brule County1,1369542,09054.4%
Todd County7111,3742,08534.1%
Deuel County1,1058411,94656.8%
Gregory County1,1487891,93759.3%
Marshall County9179171,83450.0%
Edmunds County1,0146961,71059.3%
Hanson County9436581,60158.9%
Dewey County6709081,57842.5%
Clark County8946741,56857.0%
Hand County8566151,47158.2%
Stanley County8006451,44555.4%
Douglas County8945171,41163.4%
Perkins County8525121,36462.5%
Lyman County6875961,28353.5%
Aurora County6674931,16057.5%
Potter County6724331,10560.8%
McPherson County6854141,09962.3%
Sanborn County57542199657.7%
Corson County47052199147.4%
Miner County54543698155.6%
Bennett County49548497950.6%
Faulk County57736994661.0%
Haakon County63131294366.9%
Jackson County48443892252.5%
Jerauld County45337983254.4%
Sully County44830675459.4%
Ziebach County31537669145.6%
Campbell County43125969062.5%
Mellette County31232263449.2%
Harding County44718162871.2%
Hyde County33324457757.7%
Jones County29115544665.2%
Buffalo County16124640739.6%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Constitutional Amendment L is forecast as a higher bars to pass measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with South Dakota's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sdsos.gov, newsfromthestates.com, en.wikipedia.org. All measures.