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GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 ballot measure forecast

South Dakota Constitutional Amendment J

Only U.S. citizens may vote

Amends the constitution to limit voting eligibility to U.S. citizens. The forecast has Yes at 84.9 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCitizen only votingUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
84.9%
80% range 77 to 91
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
84.9% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
84.9% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority. If Amendment L passes, it is unclear whether it applies to amendments on the same ballot. SJR 503 (2025).
The campaign

Referred by GOP legislature; no campaign data found.

Also on the South Dakota ballot

Constitutional Amendment I
Tie Medicaid expansion to federal funding level
85%
Constitutional Amendment K
Create trust for unclaimed property fund
91%
Constitutional Amendment L
Require 60% to pass constitutional amendments
56%

Constitutional Amendment J by county

Aurora CountyBeadle CountyBennett CountyBon Homme CountyBrookings CountyBrown CountyBrule CountyBuffalo CountyButte CountyCampbell CountyCharles Mix CountyClark CountyClay CountyCodington CountyCorson CountyCuster CountyDavison CountyDay CountyDeuel CountyDewey CountyDouglas CountyEdmunds CountyFall River CountyFaulk CountyGrant CountyGregory CountyHaakon CountyHamlin CountyHand CountyHanson CountyHarding CountyHughes CountyHutchinson CountyHyde CountyJackson CountyJerauld CountyJones CountyKingsbury CountyLake CountyLawrence CountyLincoln CountyLyman CountyMcCook CountyMcPherson CountyMarshall CountyMeade CountyMellette CountyMiner CountyMinnehaha CountyMoody CountyOglala Lakota CountyPennington CountyPerkins CountyPotter CountyRoberts CountySanborn CountySpink CountyStanley CountySully CountyTodd CountyTripp CountyTurner CountyUnion CountyWalworth CountyYankton CountyZiebach CountyMinnehahaPenningtonLincolnBrownBrookingsLawrenceMeadeCodingtonYanktonDavisonHughesUnion
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Minnehaha County: Yes +49,665Pennington County: Yes +32,720Lincoln County: Yes +20,460Brown County: Yes +10,117Meade County: Yes +9,680Lawrence County: Yes +9,047Brookings County: Yes +8,594Codington County: Yes +8,484Yankton County: Yes +6,383Davison County: Yes +5,622Union County: Yes +5,342Hughes County: Yes +5,255Beadle County: Yes +4,563Custer County: Yes +3,825Lake County: Yes +3,538Butte County: Yes +3,502Turner County: Yes +3,016Clay County: Yes +2,895Fall River County: Yes +2,819Hutchinson County: Yes +2,566Roberts County: Yes +2,426Grant County: Yes +2,403Charles Mix County: Yes +2,387Hamlin County: Yes +2,181Bon Homme County: Yes +2,073Spink County: Yes +1,984McCook County: Yes +1,964Moody County: Yes +1,895Tripp County: Yes +1,894Kingsbury County: Yes +1,837Day County: Yes +1,745Walworth County: Yes +1,722Gregory County: Yes +1,593Brule County: Yes +1,580Deuel County: Yes +1,539Edmunds County: Yes +1,406Hanson County: Yes +1,309Marshall County: Yes +1,252Clark County: Yes +1,245Douglas County: Yes +1,221Hand County: Yes +1,191Perkins County: Yes +1,168Stanley County: Yes +1,115Lyman County: Yes +955McPherson County: Yes +940Aurora County: Yes +928Potter County: Yes +927Haakon County: Yes +845Dewey County: Yes +811Sanborn County: Yes +800Faulk County: Yes +796Miner County: Yes +759Bennett County: Yes +679Jackson County: Yes +669Jerauld County: Yes +631Corson County: Yes +627Sully County: Yes +620Campbell County: Yes +592Harding County: Yes +581Todd County: Yes +525Hyde County: Yes +462Mellette County: Yes +423Ziebach County: Yes +409Jones County: Yes +394Buffalo County: Yes +175Oglala Lakota County: Yes +46
Yes +251,817 net votes from 66 countiesStatewide Yes +69.8, a 251,817 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

360,695 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes306,25684.9%
No54,43915.1%
Total360,695100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Minnehaha County63,86414,19978,06381.8%
Pennington County39,9377,21747,15484.7%
Lincoln County24,9804,52029,50084.7%
Brown County12,3422,22514,56784.7%
Brookings County10,8422,24813,09082.8%
Lawrence County10,8631,81612,67985.7%
Meade County10,9841,30412,28889.4%
Codington County9,9021,41811,32087.5%
Yankton County7,8141,4319,24584.5%
Davison County6,6209987,61886.9%
Hughes County6,3361,0817,41785.4%
Union County6,2408987,13887.4%
Beadle County5,3377746,11187.3%
Clay County4,0971,2025,29977.3%
Custer County4,4045794,98388.4%
Lake County4,2557174,97285.6%
Butte County3,8763744,25091.2%
Turner County3,4174013,81889.5%
Fall River County3,2133943,60789.1%
Roberts County2,9995733,57284.0%
Hutchinson County2,8632973,16090.6%
Charles Mix County2,7713843,15587.8%
Grant County2,7683653,13388.3%
Oglala Lakota County1,5551,5093,06450.8%
Spink County2,3283442,67287.1%
Hamlin County2,4182372,65591.1%
Moody County2,2733782,65185.7%
Bon Homme County2,3512782,62989.4%
McCook County2,2382742,51289.1%
Day County2,1073622,46985.3%
Kingsbury County2,1262892,41588.0%
Tripp County2,0861922,27891.6%
Walworth County1,9141922,10690.9%
Brule County1,8352552,09087.8%
Todd County1,3057802,08562.6%
Deuel County1,7432041,94789.5%
Gregory County1,7651721,93791.1%
Marshall County1,5432911,83484.1%
Edmunds County1,5581521,71091.1%
Hanson County1,4551461,60190.9%
Dewey County1,1953841,57975.7%
Clark County1,4071621,56989.7%
Hand County1,3311401,47190.5%
Stanley County1,2801651,44588.6%
Douglas County1,316951,41193.3%
Perkins County1,266981,36492.8%
Lyman County1,1191641,28387.2%
Aurora County1,0441161,16090.0%
Potter County1,016891,10591.9%
McPherson County1,020801,10092.7%
Sanborn County8989899690.2%
Corson County80918299181.6%
Miner County87011198188.7%
Bennett County82915097984.7%
Faulk County8717594692.1%
Haakon County8944994394.8%
Jackson County79512692186.3%
Jerauld County73210183387.9%
Sully County6876775491.1%
Ziebach County55014169179.6%
Campbell County6414969092.9%
Mellette County52810563383.4%
Harding County6042362796.3%
Hyde County5195757690.1%
Jones County4202644694.2%
Buffalo County29111640771.5%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Constitutional Amendment J is forecast as a citizen only voting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with South Dakota's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sdsos.gov. All measures.