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2026 ballot measure forecast

Montana I-194

Bar corporate political spending via charter limits

Limits powers of artificial persons so corporations and other entities cannot spend on candidates, ballot measures or parties. The forecast has Yes at 61.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 86% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated statuteGovernment and ethicsUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
86%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
61.1%
80% range 48 to 72
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
61.1% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
61.1% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Transparent Election Initiative PAC, 305,000 raised, endorsed by former Gov. Steve Bullock; opposed by Montanans for Free Speech.

Also on the Montana ballot

CI-132
Keep judicial elections nonpartisan
60%
CI-133
Protect initiative and referendum rights
49%

I-194 by county

Beaverhead CountyBig Horn CountyBlaine CountyBroadwater CountyCarbon CountyCarter CountyCascade CountyChouteau CountyCuster CountyDaniels CountyDawson CountyDeer Lodge CountyFallon CountyFergus CountyFlathead CountyGallatin CountyGarfield CountyGlacier CountyGolden Valley CountyGranite CountyHill CountyJefferson CountyJudith Basin CountyLake CountyLewis and Clark CountyLiberty CountyLincoln CountyMcCone CountyMadison CountyMeagher CountyMineral CountyMissoula CountyMusselshell CountyPark CountyPetroleum CountyPhillips CountyPondera CountyPowder River CountyPowell CountyPrairie CountyRavalli CountyRichland CountyRoosevelt CountyRosebud CountySanders CountySheridan CountySilver Bow CountyStillwater CountySweet Grass CountyTeton CountyToole CountyTreasure CountyValley CountyWheatland CountyWibaux CountyYellowstone CountyYellowstoneMissoulaGallatinFlatheadLewis and ClarkRavalliSilver BowLakeLincolnParkSandersJefferson
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Missoula County: Yes +21,902Gallatin County: Yes +18,092Yellowstone County: Yes +15,066Flathead County: Yes +10,010Lewis and Clark County: Yes +9,975Cascade County: Yes +7,726Silver Bow County: Yes +5,020Ravalli County: Yes +4,085Lake County: Yes +3,435Park County: Yes +2,611Glacier County: Yes +1,532Hill County: Yes +1,414Deer Lodge County: Yes +1,332Jefferson County: Yes +1,218Big Horn County: Yes +1,177Carbon County: Yes +1,175Lincoln County: Yes +1,152Roosevelt County: Yes +889Madison County: Yes +766Beaverhead County: Yes +752Sanders County: Yes +727Fergus County: Yes +688Blaine County: Yes +684Custer County: Yes +682Rosebud County: Yes +552Chouteau County: Yes +491Teton County: Yes +442Valley County: Yes +424Pondera County: Yes +404Stillwater County: Yes +350Dawson County: Yes +345Powell County: Yes +334Mineral County: Yes +321Broadwater County: Yes +307Granite County: Yes +281Sheridan County: Yes +258Sweet Grass County: Yes +221Toole County: Yes +188Richland County: Yes +163Phillips County: Yes +132Meagher County: Yes +113Judith Basin County: Yes +98Liberty County: Yes +96Wheatland County: Yes +82Prairie County: Yes +44Daniels County: Yes +41Musselshell County: Yes +39Wibaux County: Yes +7Treasure County: Yes +6Golden Valley County: Yes +5Garfield County: No +91Carter County: No +40Fallon County: No +23Powder River County: No +4Petroleum County: No +3McCone County: No +2
Yes +117,854 net votes from 50 countiesStatewide Yes +22.1, a 117,691 vote marginNo +163 net votes from 6 counties

Projected vote

531,405 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes324,54861.1%
No206,85738.9%
Total531,405100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Yellowstone County44,23329,16773,40060.3%
Missoula County42,49320,59163,08467.4%
Gallatin County39,67421,58261,25664.8%
Flathead County32,24622,23654,48259.2%
Lewis and Clark County23,46713,49236,95963.5%
Cascade County21,39113,66535,05661.0%
Ravalli County14,81710,73225,54958.0%
Silver Bow County10,7075,68716,39465.3%
Lake County9,2565,82115,07761.4%
Lincoln County5,8044,65210,45655.5%
Park County6,2503,6399,88963.2%
Sanders County3,9373,2107,14755.1%
Jefferson County4,1072,8896,99658.7%
Carbon County3,7152,5406,25559.4%
Hill County3,7502,3366,08661.6%
Fergus County3,2932,6055,89855.8%
Custer County3,0242,3425,36656.4%
Madison County3,0662,3005,36657.1%
Beaverhead County2,9102,1585,06857.4%
Stillwater County2,6662,3164,98253.5%
Richland County2,4052,2424,64751.8%
Deer Lodge County2,9711,6394,61064.4%
Glacier County3,0061,4744,48067.1%
Big Horn County2,6811,5044,18564.1%
Dawson County2,2231,8784,10154.2%
Broadwater County2,1431,8363,97953.9%
Valley County2,0081,5843,59255.9%
Roosevelt County2,1661,2773,44362.9%
Rosebud County1,8901,3383,22858.6%
Powell County1,7261,3923,11855.4%
Teton County1,7721,3303,10257.1%
Chouteau County1,5531,0622,61559.4%
Pondera County1,5081,1042,61257.7%
Musselshell County1,3231,2842,60750.7%
Blaine County1,6139292,54263.5%
Mineral County1,3921,0712,46356.5%
Sweet Grass County1,1168952,01155.5%
Toole County1,0909021,99254.7%
Phillips County1,0469141,96053.4%
Granite County1,0988171,91557.3%
Sheridan County9887301,71857.5%
Fallon County6586811,33949.1%
Judith Basin County6075091,11654.4%
Meagher County5834701,05355.4%
Wheatland County52344196454.3%
Powder River County47848296049.8%
McCone County47347594849.9%
Liberty County50140590655.3%
Daniels County42538480952.5%
Carter County35939975847.4%
Prairie County34129763853.4%
Garfield County26035161142.6%
Wibaux County24423748150.7%
Golden Valley County22822345150.6%
Treasure County20620040650.7%
Petroleum County13814127949.5%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
I-194 is forecast as a government and ethics measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Montana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sosmt.gov, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.