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2026 ballot measure forecast

Montana CI-133

Protect initiative and referendum rights

Adds initiative and referendum rights to the Declaration of Rights, applies strict scrutiny to limits, and sets rules for ballot language and signature gathering. The forecast has Yes at 49.5 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 49% chance to pass.

Toss upCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentElectionsUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
49%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
49.5%
80% range 37 to 63
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
49.5% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
49.5% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Montanans Decide, over 2 million raised; opposed by Rep. Braxton Mitchell side.

Also on the Montana ballot

CI-132
Keep judicial elections nonpartisan
60%
I-194
Bar corporate political spending via charter limits
86%

CI-133 by county

Beaverhead CountyBig Horn CountyBlaine CountyBroadwater CountyCarbon CountyCarter CountyCascade CountyChouteau CountyCuster CountyDaniels CountyDawson CountyDeer Lodge CountyFallon CountyFergus CountyFlathead CountyGallatin CountyGarfield CountyGlacier CountyGolden Valley CountyGranite CountyHill CountyJefferson CountyJudith Basin CountyLake CountyLewis and Clark CountyLiberty CountyLincoln CountyMcCone CountyMadison CountyMeagher CountyMineral CountyMissoula CountyMusselshell CountyPark CountyPetroleum CountyPhillips CountyPondera CountyPowder River CountyPowell CountyPrairie CountyRavalli CountyRichland CountyRoosevelt CountyRosebud CountySanders CountySheridan CountySilver Bow CountyStillwater CountySweet Grass CountyTeton CountyToole CountyTreasure CountyValley CountyWheatland CountyWibaux CountyYellowstone CountyYellowstoneMissoulaGallatinFlatheadLewis and ClarkRavalliSilver BowLakeLincolnParkSandersJefferson
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Missoula County: Yes +14,697Gallatin County: Yes +7,999Lewis and Clark County: Yes +2,971Silver Bow County: Yes +2,493Glacier County: Yes +1,000Park County: Yes +683Deer Lodge County: Yes +544Big Horn County: Yes +431Blaine County: Yes +201Roosevelt County: Yes +198Hill County: Yes +44Flathead County: No +4,678Ravalli County: No +3,329Yellowstone County: No +3,306Lincoln County: No +2,304Sanders County: No +1,682Richland County: No +1,615Stillwater County: No +1,440Fergus County: No +1,233Broadwater County: No +1,105Dawson County: No +1,089Custer County: No +1,021Musselshell County: No +988Madison County: No +869Beaverhead County: No +768Valley County: No +741Jefferson County: No +726Powell County: No +702Phillips County: No +578Fallon County: No +574Cascade County: No +562Teton County: No +502Toole County: No +494Carbon County: No +489Mineral County: No +455Sweet Grass County: No +443Powder River County: No +394McCone County: No +384Garfield County: No +371Pondera County: No +366Carter County: No +364Rosebud County: No +354Granite County: No +295Judith Basin County: No +290Daniels County: No +259Sheridan County: No +254Wheatland County: No +254Meagher County: No +237Liberty County: No +207Chouteau County: No +204Prairie County: No +186Wibaux County: No +184Golden Valley County: No +173Treasure County: No +153Petroleum County: No +117Lake County: No +25
Yes +31,261 net votes from 11 countiesStatewide No +1.0, a 5,503 vote marginNo +36,764 net votes from 45 counties

Projected vote

531,403 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes262,95049.5%
No268,45350.5%
Total531,403100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Yellowstone County35,04738,35373,40047.7%
Missoula County38,89024,19363,08361.6%
Gallatin County34,62726,62861,25556.5%
Flathead County24,90229,58054,48245.7%
Lewis and Clark County19,96516,99436,95954.0%
Cascade County17,24717,80935,05649.2%
Ravalli County11,11014,43925,54943.5%
Silver Bow County9,4436,95016,39357.6%
Lake County7,5267,55115,07749.9%
Lincoln County4,0766,38010,45639.0%
Park County5,2864,6039,88953.5%
Sanders County2,7334,4157,14838.2%
Jefferson County3,1353,8616,99644.8%
Carbon County2,8833,3726,25546.1%
Hill County3,0653,0216,08650.4%
Fergus County2,3333,5665,89939.5%
Custer County2,1733,1945,36740.5%
Madison County2,2483,1175,36541.9%
Beaverhead County2,1502,9185,06842.4%
Stillwater County1,7713,2114,98235.5%
Richland County1,5163,1314,64732.6%
Deer Lodge County2,5772,0334,61055.9%
Glacier County2,7401,7404,48061.2%
Big Horn County2,3081,8774,18555.1%
Dawson County1,5062,5954,10136.7%
Broadwater County1,4372,5423,97936.1%
Valley County1,4262,1673,59339.7%
Roosevelt County1,8201,6223,44252.9%
Rosebud County1,4371,7913,22844.5%
Powell County1,2081,9103,11838.7%
Teton County1,3001,8023,10241.9%
Chouteau County1,2051,4092,61446.1%
Pondera County1,1231,4892,61243.0%
Musselshell County8091,7972,60631.0%
Blaine County1,3721,1712,54354.0%
Mineral County1,0041,4592,46340.8%
Sweet Grass County7841,2272,01139.0%
Toole County7491,2431,99237.6%
Phillips County6911,2691,96035.3%
Granite County8101,1051,91542.3%
Sheridan County7329861,71842.6%
Fallon County3829561,33828.6%
Judith Basin County4137031,11637.0%
Meagher County4086451,05338.7%
Wheatland County35560996436.8%
Powder River County28367796029.5%
McCone County28266694829.7%
Liberty County35055790738.6%
Daniels County27553480934.0%
Carter County19756175826.0%
Prairie County22641263835.4%
Garfield County12049161119.6%
Wibaux County14933348230.9%
Golden Valley County13931245130.8%
Treasure County12627940531.1%
Petroleum County8119827929.0%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
CI-133 is forecast as a elections measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Montana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sosmt.gov, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.