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2026 ballot measure forecast

Montana CI-132

Keep judicial elections nonpartisan

Amends the constitution to require that judicial elections remain nonpartisan. The forecast has Yes at 51.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 60% chance to pass.

Toss upCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentOtherUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
60%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
51.6%
80% range 39 to 65
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
51.6% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
51.6% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Montanans for Nonpartisan Courts, over 3.3 million raised through June 25; Montana Republican Party opposes.

Also on the Montana ballot

CI-133
Protect initiative and referendum rights
49%
I-194
Bar corporate political spending via charter limits
86%

CI-132 by county

Beaverhead CountyBig Horn CountyBlaine CountyBroadwater CountyCarbon CountyCarter CountyCascade CountyChouteau CountyCuster CountyDaniels CountyDawson CountyDeer Lodge CountyFallon CountyFergus CountyFlathead CountyGallatin CountyGarfield CountyGlacier CountyGolden Valley CountyGranite CountyHill CountyJefferson CountyJudith Basin CountyLake CountyLewis and Clark CountyLiberty CountyLincoln CountyMcCone CountyMadison CountyMeagher CountyMineral CountyMissoula CountyMusselshell CountyPark CountyPetroleum CountyPhillips CountyPondera CountyPowder River CountyPowell CountyPrairie CountyRavalli CountyRichland CountyRoosevelt CountyRosebud CountySanders CountySheridan CountySilver Bow CountyStillwater CountySweet Grass CountyTeton CountyToole CountyTreasure CountyValley CountyWheatland CountyWibaux CountyYellowstone CountyYellowstoneMissoulaGallatinFlatheadLewis and ClarkRavalliSilver BowLakeLincolnParkSandersJefferson
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Missoula County: Yes +9,103Gallatin County: Yes +5,931Lewis and Clark County: Yes +2,733Silver Bow County: Yes +1,749Yellowstone County: Yes +1,244Cascade County: Yes +1,057Park County: Yes +680Glacier County: Yes +626Lake County: Yes +553Deer Lodge County: Yes +420Big Horn County: Yes +353Hill County: Yes +248Roosevelt County: Yes +219Blaine County: Yes +186Carbon County: Yes +11Chouteau County: Yes +5Lincoln County: No +672Richland County: No +589Ravalli County: No +565Sanders County: No +510Stillwater County: No +486Musselshell County: No +373Broadwater County: No +367Dawson County: No +353Fergus County: No +347Custer County: No +268Fallon County: No +227Powell County: No +208Valley County: No +207Madison County: No +197Phillips County: No +196Garfield County: No +167Beaverhead County: No +162Toole County: No +154Powder River County: No +153Carter County: No +150McCone County: No +149Sweet Grass County: No +129Mineral County: No +117Teton County: No +114Judith Basin County: No +93Flathead County: No +92Daniels County: No +91Wheatland County: No +82Meagher County: No +70Pondera County: No +70Jefferson County: No +69Wibaux County: No +69Golden Valley County: No +65Granite County: No +63Liberty County: No +62Prairie County: No +62Treasure County: No +58Sheridan County: No +52Petroleum County: No +46Rosebud County: No +40
Yes +25,118 net votes from 16 countiesStatewide Yes +3.2, a 17,174 vote marginNo +7,944 net votes from 40 counties

Projected vote

531,404 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes274,28951.6%
No257,11548.4%
Total531,404100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Yellowstone County37,32236,07873,40050.8%
Missoula County36,09326,99063,08357.2%
Gallatin County33,59327,66261,25554.8%
Flathead County27,19527,28754,48249.9%
Lewis and Clark County19,84617,11336,95953.7%
Cascade County18,05717,00035,05751.5%
Ravalli County12,49213,05725,54948.9%
Silver Bow County9,0717,32216,39355.3%
Lake County7,8157,26215,07751.8%
Lincoln County4,8925,56410,45646.8%
Park County5,2844,6049,88853.4%
Sanders County3,3193,8297,14846.4%
Jefferson County3,4643,5336,99749.5%
Carbon County3,1333,1226,25550.1%
Hill County3,1672,9196,08652.0%
Fergus County2,7763,1235,89947.1%
Custer County2,5492,8175,36647.5%
Madison County2,5842,7815,36548.2%
Beaverhead County2,4532,6155,06848.4%
Stillwater County2,2482,7344,98245.1%
Richland County2,0292,6184,64743.7%
Deer Lodge County2,5152,0954,61054.6%
Glacier County2,5531,9274,48057.0%
Big Horn County2,2691,9164,18554.2%
Dawson County1,8742,2274,10145.7%
Broadwater County1,8062,1733,97945.4%
Valley County1,6931,9003,59347.1%
Roosevelt County1,8311,6123,44353.2%
Rosebud County1,5941,6343,22849.4%
Powell County1,4551,6633,11846.7%
Teton County1,4941,6083,10248.2%
Chouteau County1,3101,3052,61550.1%
Pondera County1,2711,3412,61248.7%
Musselshell County1,1171,4902,60742.8%
Blaine County1,3641,1782,54253.7%
Mineral County1,1731,2902,46347.6%
Sweet Grass County9411,0702,01146.8%
Toole County9191,0731,99246.1%
Phillips County8821,0781,96045.0%
Granite County9269891,91548.4%
Sheridan County8338851,71848.5%
Fallon County5567831,33941.5%
Judith Basin County5126051,11745.8%
Meagher County4925621,05446.7%
Wheatland County44152396445.7%
Powder River County40355695942.0%
McCone County39954894742.1%
Liberty County42248490646.6%
Daniels County35945080944.4%
Carter County30445475840.1%
Prairie County28835063845.1%
Garfield County22238961136.3%
Wibaux County20627548142.8%
Golden Valley County19325845142.8%
Treasure County17423240642.9%
Petroleum County11616227841.7%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
CI-132 is forecast as a other measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Montana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sosmt.gov, news.ballotpedia.org, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.