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12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 ballot measure forecast

Louisiana Amendment 5

Flexibility in paying retirement system debt

Removes the rule that nonrecurring state money must pay a retirement system's oldest unfunded liability first. The forecast has Yes at 64.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 92% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureBonds and budgetsUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
92%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
64.4%
80% range 52 to 76
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
64.4% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
64.4% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
The campaign

Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.

Also on the Louisiana ballot

Amendment 1
Surviving spouse can transfer disabled veteran exemption
94%
Amendment 2
Keep right to restore prior maximum millage
94%
Amendment 3
No post conviction bail for crimes against minors
>99%
Amendment 4
Lifetime two term limit for governor
97%
Amendment 6
Extra local property tax exemption for seniors
94%
Amendment 7
Public funds for private drinking water lines
88%
Amendment 8
Bar foreign adversaries from expropriating property
91%
Amendment 9
Raise income limit for assessment freeze to $150,000
93%
Amendment 10
Tax exemption for rehabilitated blighted property
93%

Amendment 5 by parish

Acadia ParishAllen ParishAscension ParishAssumption ParishAvoyelles ParishBeauregard ParishBienville ParishBossier ParishCaddo ParishCalcasieu ParishCaldwell ParishCameron ParishCatahoula ParishClaiborne ParishConcordia ParishDe Soto ParishEast Baton Rouge ParishEast Carroll ParishEast Feliciana ParishEvangeline ParishFranklin ParishGrant ParishIberia ParishIberville ParishJackson ParishJefferson ParishJefferson Davis ParishLafayette ParishLafourche ParishLaSalle ParishLincoln ParishLivingston ParishMadison ParishMorehouse ParishNatchitoches ParishOrleans ParishOuachita ParishPlaquemines ParishPointe Coupee ParishRapides ParishRed River ParishRichland ParishSabine ParishSt. Bernard ParishSt. Charles ParishSt. Helena ParishSt. James ParishSt. John the Baptist ParishSt. Landry ParishSt. Martin ParishSt. Mary ParishSt. Tammany ParishTangipahoa ParishTensas ParishTerrebonne ParishUnion ParishVermilion ParishVernon ParishWashington ParishWebster ParishWest Baton Rouge ParishWest Carroll ParishWest Feliciana ParishWinn ParishEast Baton RougeJeffersonOrleansSt. TammanyLafayetteCaddoCalcasieuOuachitaLivingstonAscensionTangipahoaRapides
No +30Yes +30Click a parish to zoom · arrow keys step through parishes by size
Where the margin is won
Orleans Parish: Yes +59,105East Baton Rouge Parish: Yes +52,023Jefferson Parish: Yes +38,008Caddo Parish: Yes +24,450St. Tammany Parish: Yes +21,958Lafayette Parish: Yes +21,234Calcasieu Parish: Yes +14,447Ouachita Parish: Yes +13,597Ascension Parish: Yes +11,099Tangipahoa Parish: Yes +10,009Rapides Parish: Yes +9,440Bossier Parish: Yes +9,209St. Landry Parish: Yes +7,599Livingston Parish: Yes +6,860Terrebonne Parish: Yes +6,534Lafourche Parish: Yes +5,700Iberia Parish: Yes +5,579St. John the Baptist Parish: Yes +5,369St. Charles Parish: Yes +4,943St. Martin Parish: Yes +4,617St. Mary Parish: Yes +4,126Lincoln Parish: Yes +3,839Iberville Parish: Yes +3,733Acadia Parish: Yes +3,274St. Bernard Parish: Yes +3,242Washington Parish: Yes +3,238Vermilion Parish: Yes +3,195West Baton Rouge Parish: Yes +3,128Natchitoches Parish: Yes +3,119Webster Parish: Yes +2,989St. James Parish: Yes +2,856Avoyelles Parish: Yes +2,635De Soto Parish: Yes +2,580Morehouse Parish: Yes +2,394Evangeline Parish: Yes +2,180Pointe Coupee Parish: Yes +2,142Plaquemines Parish: Yes +1,995East Feliciana Parish: Yes +1,976Jefferson Davis Parish: Yes +1,790Assumption Parish: Yes +1,749Richland Parish: Yes +1,732Concordia Parish: Yes +1,687Franklin Parish: Yes +1,632Vernon Parish: Yes +1,515Union Parish: Yes +1,497St. Helena Parish: Yes +1,348Claiborne Parish: Yes +1,310Bienville Parish: Yes +1,265West Feliciana Parish: Yes +1,224Jackson Parish: Yes +1,204Beauregard Parish: Yes +1,170Sabine Parish: Yes +1,121Allen Parish: Yes +1,108Madison Parish: Yes +1,055Winn Parish: Yes +932East Carroll Parish: Yes +758Catahoula Parish: Yes +747Red River Parish: Yes +713Grant Parish: Yes +597Tensas Parish: Yes +546West Carroll Parish: Yes +543Caldwell Parish: Yes +472LaSalle Parish: Yes +398Cameron Parish: Yes +101
Yes +412,635 net votes from 64 parishesStatewide Yes +28.8, a 412,635 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 parishes

Projected vote

1,430,493 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes921,56464.4%
No508,92935.6%
Total1,430,493100%
ParishYesNoTotalYes share
East Baton Rouge Parish97,37945,356142,73568.2%
Jefferson Parish82,30544,297126,60265.0%
Orleans Parish91,33932,234123,57373.9%
St. Tammany Parish58,27736,31994,59661.6%
Lafayette Parish49,27528,04177,31663.7%
Caddo Parish47,17722,72769,90467.5%
Calcasieu Parish35,52121,07456,59562.8%
Ouachita Parish30,31716,72047,03764.5%
Livingston Parish25,47418,61444,08857.8%
Ascension Parish26,53915,44041,97963.2%
Tangipahoa Parish24,47014,46138,93162.9%
Rapides Parish23,80814,36838,17662.4%
Bossier Parish22,97413,76536,73962.5%
Lafourche Parish17,83112,13129,96259.5%
Terrebonne Parish18,10511,57129,67661.0%
St. Landry Parish16,8779,27826,15564.5%
Iberia Parish13,1557,57620,73163.5%
St. Charles Parish11,7116,76818,47963.4%
Acadia Parish10,7867,51218,29858.9%
Vermilion Parish10,5367,34117,87758.9%
St. Martin Parish10,9596,34217,30163.3%
St. Mary Parish9,4415,31514,75664.0%
St. John the Baptist Parish9,5484,17913,72769.6%
Lincoln Parish8,7804,94113,72164.0%
Washington Parish8,1284,89013,01862.4%
St. Bernard Parish7,4864,24411,73063.8%
Webster Parish7,2634,27411,53763.0%
Vernon Parish6,5014,98611,48756.6%
Avoyelles Parish6,9364,30111,23761.7%
Natchitoches Parish7,0743,95511,02964.1%
Beauregard Parish6,0234,85310,87655.4%
Iberville Parish7,2373,50410,74167.4%
Jefferson Davis Parish5,7533,9639,71659.2%
Evangeline Parish5,9413,7619,70261.2%
De Soto Parish6,0923,5129,60463.4%
West Baton Rouge Parish6,3253,1979,52266.4%
St. James Parish5,4642,6088,07267.7%
Pointe Coupee Parish5,0192,8777,89663.6%
Morehouse Parish4,9062,5127,41866.1%
Union Parish4,3712,8747,24560.3%
Assumption Parish4,4372,6887,12562.3%
Plaquemines Parish4,5152,5207,03564.2%
East Feliciana Parish4,4652,4896,95464.2%
Sabine Parish4,0042,8836,88758.1%
Richland Parish4,1102,3786,48863.3%
Franklin Parish3,9772,3456,32262.9%
Grant Parish3,4502,8536,30354.7%
Allen Parish3,6532,5456,19858.9%
Concordia Parish3,6611,9745,63565.0%
Jackson Parish3,1361,9325,06861.9%
LaSalle Parish2,5392,1414,68054.3%
Bienville Parish2,8611,5964,45764.2%
West Feliciana Parish2,8331,6094,44263.8%
Claiborne Parish2,7711,4614,23265.5%
Winn Parish2,4971,5654,06261.5%
St. Helena Parish2,6671,3193,98666.9%
West Carroll Parish1,8771,3343,21158.5%
Catahoula Parish1,9251,1783,10362.0%
Caldwell Parish1,7771,3053,08257.7%
Madison Parish2,0319763,00767.5%
Red River Parish1,6619482,60963.7%
Cameron Parish1,2291,1282,35752.1%
East Carroll Parish1,3285701,89870.0%
Tensas Parish1,0575111,56867.4%

Projected 2026 votes: each parish's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 5 is forecast as a bonds and budgets measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Louisiana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wafb.com, theballotbrief.com, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.