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2026 ballot measure forecast

Louisiana Amendment 4

Lifetime two term limit for governor

Bars anyone who has served more than one and a half terms as governor from being elected again, making two terms a lifetime limit. The forecast has Yes at 69.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 97% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureGovernment and ethicsUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
97%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.0%
80% range 57 to 79
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
69.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
69.0% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
The campaign

Sponsored by Reps. Mike Bayham R and Mandie Landry D; no organized campaign or money reported.

Also on the Louisiana ballot

Amendment 1
Surviving spouse can transfer disabled veteran exemption
94%
Amendment 2
Keep right to restore prior maximum millage
94%
Amendment 3
No post conviction bail for crimes against minors
>99%
Amendment 5
Flexibility in paying retirement system debt
92%
Amendment 6
Extra local property tax exemption for seniors
94%
Amendment 7
Public funds for private drinking water lines
88%
Amendment 8
Bar foreign adversaries from expropriating property
91%
Amendment 9
Raise income limit for assessment freeze to $150,000
93%
Amendment 10
Tax exemption for rehabilitated blighted property
93%

Amendment 4 by parish

Acadia ParishAllen ParishAscension ParishAssumption ParishAvoyelles ParishBeauregard ParishBienville ParishBossier ParishCaddo ParishCalcasieu ParishCaldwell ParishCameron ParishCatahoula ParishClaiborne ParishConcordia ParishDe Soto ParishEast Baton Rouge ParishEast Carroll ParishEast Feliciana ParishEvangeline ParishFranklin ParishGrant ParishIberia ParishIberville ParishJackson ParishJefferson ParishJefferson Davis ParishLafayette ParishLafourche ParishLaSalle ParishLincoln ParishLivingston ParishMadison ParishMorehouse ParishNatchitoches ParishOrleans ParishOuachita ParishPlaquemines ParishPointe Coupee ParishRapides ParishRed River ParishRichland ParishSabine ParishSt. Bernard ParishSt. Charles ParishSt. Helena ParishSt. James ParishSt. John the Baptist ParishSt. Landry ParishSt. Martin ParishSt. Mary ParishSt. Tammany ParishTangipahoa ParishTensas ParishTerrebonne ParishUnion ParishVermilion ParishVernon ParishWashington ParishWebster ParishWest Baton Rouge ParishWest Carroll ParishWest Feliciana ParishWinn ParishEast Baton RougeJeffersonOrleansSt. TammanyLafayetteCaddoCalcasieuOuachitaLivingstonAscensionTangipahoaRapides
No +30Yes +30Click a parish to zoom · arrow keys step through parishes by size
Where the margin is won
East Baton Rouge Parish: Yes +54,232Jefferson Parish: Yes +48,102Orleans Parish: Yes +46,951St. Tammany Parish: Yes +35,942Lafayette Parish: Yes +29,376Caddo Parish: Yes +26,560Calcasieu Parish: Yes +21,503Ouachita Parish: Yes +17,871Livingston Parish: Yes +16,752Ascension Parish: Yes +15,950Tangipahoa Parish: Yes +14,791Rapides Parish: Yes +14,505Bossier Parish: Yes +13,959Lafourche Parish: Yes +11,384Terrebonne Parish: Yes +11,276St. Landry Parish: Yes +9,938Iberia Parish: Yes +7,877St. Charles Parish: Yes +7,021Acadia Parish: Yes +6,952Vermilion Parish: Yes +6,793St. Martin Parish: Yes +6,573St. Mary Parish: Yes +5,607St. John the Baptist Parish: Yes +5,215Lincoln Parish: Yes +5,213Washington Parish: Yes +4,946St. Bernard Parish: Yes +4,457Webster Parish: Yes +4,383Vernon Parish: Yes +4,365Avoyelles Parish: Yes +4,269Natchitoches Parish: Yes +4,191Beauregard Parish: Yes +4,132Iberville Parish: Yes +4,081Jefferson Davis Parish: Yes +3,692Evangeline Parish: Yes +3,686De Soto Parish: Yes +3,649West Baton Rouge Parish: Yes +3,618St. James Parish: Yes +3,067Pointe Coupee Parish: Yes +3,000Morehouse Parish: Yes +2,818Union Parish: Yes +2,753Assumption Parish: Yes +2,707Plaquemines Parish: Yes +2,674East Feliciana Parish: Yes +2,642Sabine Parish: Yes +2,617Richland Parish: Yes +2,465Franklin Parish: Yes +2,402Grant Parish: Yes +2,395Allen Parish: Yes +2,355Concordia Parish: Yes +2,141Jackson Parish: Yes +1,926LaSalle Parish: Yes +1,778Bienville Parish: Yes +1,693West Feliciana Parish: Yes +1,688Claiborne Parish: Yes +1,608Winn Parish: Yes +1,543St. Helena Parish: Yes +1,514West Carroll Parish: Yes +1,220Catahoula Parish: Yes +1,179Caldwell Parish: Yes +1,171Madison Parish: Yes +1,143Red River Parish: Yes +991Cameron Parish: Yes +896East Carroll Parish: Yes +721Tensas Parish: Yes +596
Yes +543,515 net votes from 64 parishesStatewide Yes +38.0, a 543,515 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 parishes

Projected vote

1,430,499 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes987,00769.0%
No443,49231.0%
Total1,430,499100%
ParishYesNoTotalYes share
East Baton Rouge Parish98,48444,252142,73669.0%
Jefferson Parish87,35239,250126,60269.0%
Orleans Parish85,26238,311123,57369.0%
St. Tammany Parish65,26929,32794,59669.0%
Lafayette Parish53,34623,97077,31669.0%
Caddo Parish48,23221,67269,90469.0%
Calcasieu Parish39,04917,54656,59569.0%
Ouachita Parish32,45414,58347,03769.0%
Livingston Parish30,42013,66844,08869.0%
Ascension Parish28,96513,01541,98069.0%
Tangipahoa Parish26,86112,07038,93169.0%
Rapides Parish26,34111,83638,17769.0%
Bossier Parish25,34911,39036,73969.0%
Lafourche Parish20,6739,28929,96269.0%
Terrebonne Parish20,4769,20029,67669.0%
St. Landry Parish18,0478,10926,15669.0%
Iberia Parish14,3046,42720,73169.0%
St. Charles Parish12,7505,72918,47969.0%
Acadia Parish12,6255,67318,29869.0%
Vermilion Parish12,3355,54217,87769.0%
St. Martin Parish11,9375,36417,30169.0%
St. Mary Parish10,1814,57414,75569.0%
St. John the Baptist Parish9,4714,25613,72769.0%
Lincoln Parish9,4674,25413,72169.0%
Washington Parish8,9824,03613,01869.0%
St. Bernard Parish8,0933,63611,72969.0%
Webster Parish7,9603,57711,53769.0%
Vernon Parish7,9263,56111,48769.0%
Avoyelles Parish7,7533,48411,23769.0%
Natchitoches Parish7,6103,41911,02969.0%
Beauregard Parish7,5043,37210,87669.0%
Iberville Parish7,4113,33010,74169.0%
Jefferson Davis Parish6,7043,0129,71669.0%
Evangeline Parish6,6943,0089,70269.0%
De Soto Parish6,6272,9789,60569.0%
West Baton Rouge Parish6,5702,9529,52269.0%
St. James Parish5,5692,5028,07169.0%
Pointe Coupee Parish5,4482,4487,89669.0%
Morehouse Parish5,1182,3007,41869.0%
Union Parish4,9992,2467,24569.0%
Assumption Parish4,9162,2097,12569.0%
Plaquemines Parish4,8552,1817,03669.0%
East Feliciana Parish4,7982,1566,95469.0%
Sabine Parish4,7522,1356,88769.0%
Richland Parish4,4762,0116,48769.0%
Franklin Parish4,3621,9606,32269.0%
Grant Parish4,3491,9546,30369.0%
Allen Parish4,2771,9226,19969.0%
Concordia Parish3,8881,7475,63569.0%
Jackson Parish3,4971,5715,06869.0%
LaSalle Parish3,2291,4514,68069.0%
Bienville Parish3,0751,3824,45769.0%
West Feliciana Parish3,0651,3774,44269.0%
Claiborne Parish2,9201,3124,23269.0%
Winn Parish2,8031,2604,06369.0%
St. Helena Parish2,7501,2363,98669.0%
West Carroll Parish2,2169963,21269.0%
Catahoula Parish2,1419623,10369.0%
Caldwell Parish2,1279563,08369.0%
Madison Parish2,0759323,00769.0%
Red River Parish1,8008092,60969.0%
Cameron Parish1,6277312,35869.0%
East Carroll Parish1,3095881,89769.0%
Tensas Parish1,0824861,56869.0%

Projected 2026 votes: each parish's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 4 is forecast as a government and ethics measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Louisiana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wafb.com, theballotbrief.com, news.ballotpedia.org, wafb.com. All measures.