2026 ballot measure forecast
Louisiana Amendment 3
No post conviction bail for crimes against minors
Prohibits post conviction bail for people convicted of certain aggravated offenses against children. The forecast has Yes at 76.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
76.8%80% range 67 to 85
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 76.8% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 76.8% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
The campaign
Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.
Also on the Louisiana ballot
Amendment 1
Surviving spouse can transfer disabled veteran exemption
94%
Amendment 2
Keep right to restore prior maximum millage
94%
Amendment 4
Lifetime two term limit for governor
97%
Amendment 5
Flexibility in paying retirement system debt
92%
Amendment 6
Extra local property tax exemption for seniors
94%
Amendment 7
Public funds for private drinking water lines
88%
Amendment 8
Bar foreign adversaries from expropriating property
91%
Amendment 9
Raise income limit for assessment freeze to $150,000
93%
Amendment 10
Tax exemption for rehabilitated blighted property
93%
No +30Yes +30Click a parish to zoom · arrow keys step through parishes by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +765,499 net votes from 64 parishesStatewide Yes +53.5, a 765,499 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 parishes
Projected vote
1,430,493 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1,097,996 | 76.8% |
| No | 332,497 | 23.2% |
| Total | 1,430,493 | 100% |
| Parish | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Baton Rouge Parish | 102,339 | 40,396 | 142,735 | 71.7% |
| Jefferson Parish | 96,993 | 29,609 | 126,602 | 76.6% |
| Orleans Parish | 75,053 | 48,520 | 123,573 | 60.7% |
| St. Tammany Parish | 76,582 | 18,014 | 94,596 | 81.0% |
| Lafayette Parish | 60,571 | 16,745 | 77,316 | 78.3% |
| Caddo Parish | 50,959 | 18,945 | 69,904 | 72.9% |
| Calcasieu Parish | 45,034 | 11,561 | 56,595 | 79.6% |
| Ouachita Parish | 36,397 | 10,639 | 47,036 | 77.4% |
| Livingston Parish | 37,449 | 6,639 | 44,088 | 84.9% |
| Ascension Parish | 33,164 | 8,815 | 41,979 | 79.0% |
| Tangipahoa Parish | 30,934 | 7,997 | 38,931 | 79.5% |
| Rapides Parish | 30,565 | 7,612 | 38,177 | 80.1% |
| Bossier Parish | 29,338 | 7,401 | 36,739 | 79.9% |
| Lafourche Parish | 24,943 | 5,020 | 29,963 | 83.2% |
| Terrebonne Parish | 24,227 | 5,449 | 29,676 | 81.6% |
| St. Landry Parish | 20,213 | 5,943 | 26,156 | 77.3% |
| Iberia Parish | 16,316 | 4,416 | 20,732 | 78.7% |
| St. Charles Parish | 14,562 | 3,917 | 18,479 | 78.8% |
| Acadia Parish | 15,337 | 2,961 | 18,298 | 83.8% |
| Vermilion Parish | 14,986 | 2,891 | 17,877 | 83.8% |
| St. Martin Parish | 13,641 | 3,660 | 17,301 | 78.8% |
| St. Mary Parish | 11,511 | 3,244 | 14,755 | 78.0% |
| St. John the Baptist Parish | 9,527 | 4,200 | 13,727 | 69.4% |
| Lincoln Parish | 10,702 | 3,019 | 13,721 | 78.0% |
| Washington Parish | 10,410 | 2,608 | 13,018 | 80.0% |
| St. Bernard Parish | 9,175 | 2,554 | 11,729 | 78.2% |
| Webster Parish | 9,153 | 2,384 | 11,537 | 79.3% |
| Vernon Parish | 9,880 | 1,607 | 11,487 | 86.0% |
| Avoyelles Parish | 9,082 | 2,155 | 11,237 | 80.8% |
| Natchitoches Parish | 8,581 | 2,448 | 11,029 | 77.8% |
| Beauregard Parish | 9,466 | 1,410 | 10,876 | 87.0% |
| Iberville Parish | 7,849 | 2,892 | 10,741 | 73.1% |
| Jefferson Davis Parish | 8,118 | 1,598 | 9,716 | 83.6% |
| Evangeline Parish | 7,895 | 1,806 | 9,701 | 81.4% |
| De Soto Parish | 7,562 | 2,043 | 9,605 | 78.7% |
| West Baton Rouge Parish | 7,099 | 2,423 | 9,522 | 74.6% |
| St. James Parish | 5,858 | 2,214 | 8,072 | 72.6% |
| Pointe Coupee Parish | 6,203 | 1,693 | 7,896 | 78.6% |
| Morehouse Parish | 5,562 | 1,856 | 7,418 | 75.0% |
| Union Parish | 5,969 | 1,277 | 7,246 | 82.4% |
| Assumption Parish | 5,711 | 1,413 | 7,124 | 80.2% |
| Plaquemines Parish | 5,471 | 1,565 | 7,036 | 77.8% |
| East Feliciana Parish | 5,404 | 1,550 | 6,954 | 77.7% |
| Sabine Parish | 5,827 | 1,060 | 6,887 | 84.6% |
| Richland Parish | 5,115 | 1,372 | 6,487 | 78.9% |
| Franklin Parish | 5,019 | 1,303 | 6,322 | 79.4% |
| Grant Parish | 5,518 | 785 | 6,303 | 87.5% |
| Allen Parish | 5,196 | 1,002 | 6,198 | 83.8% |
| Concordia Parish | 4,320 | 1,315 | 5,635 | 76.7% |
| Jackson Parish | 4,087 | 981 | 5,068 | 80.6% |
| LaSalle Parish | 4,115 | 565 | 4,680 | 87.9% |
| Bienville Parish | 3,464 | 993 | 4,457 | 77.7% |
| West Feliciana Parish | 3,477 | 965 | 4,442 | 78.3% |
| Claiborne Parish | 3,214 | 1,018 | 4,232 | 75.9% |
| Winn Parish | 3,295 | 767 | 4,062 | 81.1% |
| St. Helena Parish | 2,942 | 1,044 | 3,986 | 73.8% |
| West Carroll Parish | 2,707 | 504 | 3,211 | 84.3% |
| Catahoula Parish | 2,497 | 606 | 3,103 | 80.5% |
| Caldwell Parish | 2,621 | 461 | 3,082 | 85.0% |
| Madison Parish | 2,189 | 818 | 3,007 | 72.8% |
| Red River Parish | 2,046 | 563 | 2,609 | 78.4% |
| Cameron Parish | 2,108 | 249 | 2,357 | 89.4% |
| East Carroll Parish | 1,303 | 594 | 1,897 | 68.7% |
| Tensas Parish | 1,145 | 423 | 1,568 | 73.0% |
Projected 2026 votes: each parish's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Amendment 3 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Louisiana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wafb.com, theballotbrief.com, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.