2026 ballot measure forecast
California Proposition 3
Make top income tax rates permanent
Removes the 2030 expiration of the 10.3 to 12.3 percent top income tax brackets first created by Prop 30 and extended by Prop 55, funding schools and health care. The forecast has Yes at 57.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 92% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
92%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
57.1%80% range 51 to 64
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
58.1%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 53.8% Yes
- Polls
- 58.1% Yes
- Forecast
- 57.1% Yes
- Yes leans
- Democratic
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Initiative extending Prop 30/55 high earner rates; backed by education and health care labor coalition per news reports.
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Recall: remove successor election
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Proposition 37
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Proposition 38
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Proposition 39
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Proposition 40
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Proposition 41
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Proposition 42
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Proposition 43
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4%
Proposition 44
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Proposition 45
Fast track CEQA review for essential projects
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No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +1,862,728 net votes from 35 countiesStatewide Yes +14.2, a 1,807,581 vote marginNo +55,147 net votes from 23 counties
Projected vote
12,687,173 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7,247,377 | 57.1% |
| No | 5,439,796 | 42.9% |
| Total | 12,687,173 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles County | 1,777,393 | 1,187,498 | 2,964,891 | 59.9% |
| San Diego County | 660,326 | 518,609 | 1,178,935 | 56.0% |
| Orange County | 579,167 | 519,337 | 1,098,504 | 52.7% |
| Riverside County | 373,905 | 347,616 | 721,521 | 51.8% |
| Santa Clara County | 379,345 | 234,159 | 613,504 | 61.8% |
| San Bernardino County | 298,895 | 280,014 | 578,909 | 51.6% |
| Alameda County | 367,521 | 191,016 | 558,537 | 65.8% |
| Sacramento County | 305,539 | 233,061 | 538,600 | 56.7% |
| Contra Costa County | 263,241 | 166,436 | 429,677 | 61.3% |
| San Francisco County | 233,990 | 102,678 | 336,668 | 69.5% |
| Ventura County | 171,203 | 136,559 | 307,762 | 55.6% |
| San Mateo County | 176,074 | 96,252 | 272,326 | 64.7% |
| Fresno County | 134,400 | 128,599 | 262,999 | 51.1% |
| Kern County | 104,861 | 117,385 | 222,246 | 47.2% |
| San Joaquin County | 109,337 | 101,309 | 210,646 | 51.9% |
| Sonoma County | 131,207 | 75,471 | 206,678 | 63.5% |
| Placer County | 94,606 | 94,066 | 188,672 | 50.1% |
| Stanislaus County | 75,660 | 76,964 | 152,624 | 49.6% |
| Solano County | 87,248 | 64,495 | 151,743 | 57.5% |
| Santa Barbara County | 87,439 | 62,304 | 149,743 | 58.4% |
| San Luis Obispo County | 67,912 | 56,401 | 124,313 | 54.6% |
| Marin County | 83,261 | 37,667 | 120,928 | 68.9% |
| Monterey County | 69,731 | 48,126 | 117,857 | 59.2% |
| Santa Cruz County | 73,246 | 37,773 | 111,019 | 66.0% |
| Tulare County | 51,140 | 57,057 | 108,197 | 47.3% |
| El Dorado County | 44,674 | 45,889 | 90,563 | 49.3% |
| Butte County | 39,980 | 37,807 | 77,787 | 51.4% |
| Yolo County | 47,033 | 30,287 | 77,320 | 60.8% |
| Shasta County | 30,862 | 40,404 | 71,266 | 43.3% |
| Merced County | 34,277 | 32,636 | 66,913 | 51.2% |
| Napa County | 32,410 | 21,201 | 53,611 | 60.5% |
| Humboldt County | 30,868 | 21,524 | 52,392 | 58.9% |
| Nevada County | 28,026 | 22,956 | 50,982 | 55.0% |
| Madera County | 20,065 | 22,411 | 42,476 | 47.2% |
| Imperial County | 20,264 | 18,748 | 39,012 | 51.9% |
| Kings County | 15,558 | 17,729 | 33,287 | 46.7% |
| Mendocino County | 18,955 | 13,432 | 32,387 | 58.5% |
| Sutter County | 13,742 | 17,057 | 30,799 | 44.6% |
| Tuolumne County | 11,112 | 12,536 | 23,648 | 47.0% |
| Yuba County | 10,699 | 12,567 | 23,266 | 46.0% |
| Lake County | 11,330 | 10,547 | 21,877 | 51.8% |
| San Benito County | 11,888 | 9,721 | 21,609 | 55.0% |
| Tehama County | 8,986 | 12,459 | 21,445 | 41.9% |
| Calaveras County | 9,701 | 11,648 | 21,349 | 45.4% |
| Amador County | 8,436 | 10,093 | 18,529 | 45.5% |
| Siskiyou County | 8,444 | 9,304 | 17,748 | 47.6% |
| Lassen County | 3,616 | 5,818 | 9,434 | 38.3% |
| Del Norte County | 4,297 | 4,602 | 8,899 | 48.3% |
| Plumas County | 4,058 | 4,374 | 8,432 | 48.1% |
| Glenn County | 3,621 | 4,659 | 8,280 | 43.7% |
| Mariposa County | 3,690 | 4,126 | 7,816 | 47.2% |
| Inyo County | 3,868 | 3,650 | 7,518 | 51.4% |
| Colusa County | 2,598 | 3,123 | 5,721 | 45.4% |
| Trinity County | 2,459 | 2,469 | 4,928 | 49.9% |
| Mono County | 2,800 | 2,121 | 4,921 | 56.9% |
| Modoc County | 1,367 | 2,014 | 3,381 | 40.4% |
| Sierra County | 677 | 782 | 1,459 | 46.4% |
| Alpine County | 369 | 250 | 619 | 59.6% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2,261 LV | 2026-09-20 | 54 | 34 | 13 | 57.8% |
| Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey) | 1,103 LV | 2026-09-10 | 58 | 40 | 58.7% |
How this is built
Proposition 3 is forecast as a income tax measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with California's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov, growsf.org, ppic.org, escholarship.org. All measures.