2026 ballot measure forecast
California Proposition 2
Raise rainy day fund cap to 20 percent
Doubles the state budget reserve cap from 10 to 20 percent of the General Fund and changes deposit and debt payment rules. The forecast has Yes at 63.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
63.1%80% range 56 to 70
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
60.3%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 68.1% Yes
- Polls
- 60.3% Yes
- Forecast
- 63.1% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
ACA 20 placed by legislative Democrats as part of the 2026 budget deal.
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Proposition 42
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No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +3,327,257 net votes from 58 countiesStatewide Yes +26.2, a 3,327,257 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
12,687,173 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8,007,215 | 63.1% |
| No | 4,679,958 | 36.9% |
| Total | 12,687,173 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles County | 1,910,967 | 1,053,924 | 2,964,891 | 64.5% |
| San Diego County | 737,775 | 441,160 | 1,178,935 | 62.6% |
| Orange County | 670,256 | 428,248 | 1,098,504 | 61.0% |
| Riverside County | 437,132 | 284,389 | 721,521 | 60.6% |
| Santa Clara County | 400,953 | 212,551 | 613,504 | 65.4% |
| San Bernardino County | 350,202 | 228,708 | 578,910 | 60.5% |
| Alameda County | 375,756 | 182,781 | 558,537 | 67.3% |
| Sacramento County | 338,892 | 199,707 | 538,599 | 62.9% |
| Contra Costa County | 279,644 | 150,032 | 429,676 | 65.1% |
| San Francisco County | 232,672 | 103,996 | 336,668 | 69.1% |
| Ventura County | 192,038 | 115,724 | 307,762 | 62.4% |
| San Mateo County | 181,687 | 90,638 | 272,325 | 66.7% |
| Fresno County | 158,432 | 104,567 | 262,999 | 60.2% |
| Kern County | 129,674 | 92,572 | 222,246 | 58.3% |
| San Joaquin County | 127,704 | 82,942 | 210,646 | 60.6% |
| Sonoma County | 136,716 | 69,962 | 206,678 | 66.1% |
| Placer County | 112,788 | 75,884 | 188,672 | 59.8% |
| Stanislaus County | 90,819 | 61,805 | 152,624 | 59.5% |
| Solano County | 96,032 | 55,710 | 151,742 | 63.3% |
| Santa Barbara County | 95,405 | 54,339 | 149,744 | 63.7% |
| San Luis Obispo County | 76,979 | 47,334 | 124,313 | 61.9% |
| Marin County | 83,179 | 37,749 | 120,928 | 68.8% |
| Monterey County | 75,523 | 42,334 | 117,857 | 64.1% |
| Santa Cruz County | 74,783 | 36,236 | 111,019 | 67.4% |
| Tulare County | 63,174 | 45,024 | 108,198 | 58.4% |
| El Dorado County | 53,784 | 36,780 | 90,564 | 59.4% |
| Butte County | 46,969 | 30,818 | 77,787 | 60.4% |
| Yolo County | 50,161 | 27,160 | 77,321 | 64.9% |
| Shasta County | 40,217 | 31,049 | 71,266 | 56.4% |
| Merced County | 40,348 | 26,565 | 66,913 | 60.3% |
| Napa County | 34,684 | 18,927 | 53,611 | 64.7% |
| Humboldt County | 33,511 | 18,881 | 52,392 | 64.0% |
| Nevada County | 31,653 | 19,329 | 50,982 | 62.1% |
| Madera County | 24,795 | 17,681 | 42,476 | 58.4% |
| Imperial County | 23,658 | 15,354 | 39,012 | 60.6% |
| Kings County | 19,350 | 13,937 | 33,287 | 58.1% |
| Mendocino County | 20,655 | 11,732 | 32,387 | 63.8% |
| Sutter County | 17,582 | 13,217 | 30,799 | 57.1% |
| Tuolumne County | 13,775 | 9,872 | 23,647 | 58.3% |
| Yuba County | 13,439 | 9,827 | 23,266 | 57.8% |
| Lake County | 13,251 | 8,626 | 21,877 | 60.6% |
| San Benito County | 13,421 | 8,188 | 21,609 | 62.1% |
| Tehama County | 11,950 | 9,495 | 21,445 | 55.7% |
| Calaveras County | 12,274 | 9,075 | 21,349 | 57.5% |
| Amador County | 10,661 | 7,868 | 18,529 | 57.5% |
| Siskiyou County | 10,389 | 7,359 | 17,748 | 58.5% |
| Lassen County | 5,083 | 4,351 | 9,434 | 53.9% |
| Del Norte County | 5,240 | 3,659 | 8,899 | 58.9% |
| Plumas County | 4,959 | 3,473 | 8,432 | 58.8% |
| Glenn County | 4,691 | 3,590 | 8,281 | 56.6% |
| Mariposa County | 4,561 | 3,255 | 7,816 | 58.4% |
| Inyo County | 4,541 | 2,976 | 7,517 | 60.4% |
| Colusa County | 3,288 | 2,433 | 5,721 | 57.5% |
| Trinity County | 2,940 | 1,988 | 4,928 | 59.7% |
| Mono County | 3,100 | 1,821 | 4,921 | 63.0% |
| Modoc County | 1,859 | 1,522 | 3,381 | 55.0% |
| Sierra County | 846 | 613 | 1,459 | 58.0% |
| Alpine County | 398 | 221 | 619 | 64.3% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey) | 1,103 LV | 2026-09-10 | 60 | 39 | 60.3% |
How this is built
Proposition 2 is forecast as a bonds and budgets measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with California's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov, growsf.org, ppic.org. All measures.