2026 ballot measure forecast
Arizona Proposition 320
Require 60 percent spending on instruction
Requires large school districts to spend at least 60 percent of operational budgets on direct instruction or face Classroom Site Fund cuts. The forecast has Yes at 58.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 81% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
81%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
58.8%80% range 46 to 71
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 58.8% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 58.8% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Referred by the Republican led Legislature, bypassing Gov. Hobbs. No campaign finance figures found.
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No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +526,333 net votes from 15 countiesStatewide Yes +17.6, a 526,333 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
2,994,705 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1,760,519 | 58.8% |
| No | 1,234,186 | 41.2% |
| Total | 2,994,705 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa County | 1,057,554 | 753,492 | 1,811,046 | 58.4% |
| Pima County | 252,288 | 209,229 | 461,517 | 54.7% |
| Pinal County | 111,684 | 68,271 | 179,955 | 62.1% |
| Yavapai County | 84,040 | 46,404 | 130,444 | 64.4% |
| Mohave County | 66,668 | 29,406 | 96,074 | 69.4% |
| Coconino County | 34,484 | 29,762 | 64,246 | 53.7% |
| Yuma County | 37,372 | 23,170 | 60,542 | 61.7% |
| Cochise County | 32,846 | 19,887 | 52,733 | 62.3% |
| Navajo County | 27,604 | 17,580 | 45,184 | 61.1% |
| Apache County | 15,554 | 13,316 | 28,870 | 53.9% |
| Gila County | 16,110 | 8,577 | 24,687 | 65.3% |
| Santa Cruz County | 8,762 | 7,475 | 16,237 | 54.0% |
| Graham County | 9,090 | 4,357 | 13,447 | 67.6% |
| La Paz County | 4,476 | 2,237 | 6,713 | 66.7% |
| Greenlee County | 1,987 | 1,023 | 3,010 | 66.0% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Proposition 320 is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Arizona's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, azfamily.com, axios.com. All measures.