2026 ballot measure forecast
Arizona Proposition 317
Designate drug cartels as terrorist organizations
Designates drug cartels as terrorist organizations under state law and directs the state Department of Homeland Security to address them. The forecast has Yes at 73.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
73.4%80% range 61 to 83
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 73.4% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 73.4% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Referred by the Republican led Legislature, bypassing Gov. Hobbs. No campaign finance figures found. Introduced by House Speaker Steve Montenegro.
Also on the Arizona ballot
Proposition 141
Ban vehicle miles traveled taxes
84%
Proposition 142
Ban race based preferences and DEI mandates
72%
Proposition 144
Voter ID for all voters including mail
>99%
Proposition 316
Cap local grocery taxes at 2 percent
83%
Proposition 318
Sex based school sports, restrooms, locker rooms
95%
Proposition 319
Restrict photo radar traffic enforcement
88%
Proposition 320
Require 60 percent spending on instruction
81%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +1,399,568 net votes from 15 countiesStatewide Yes +46.7, a 1,399,568 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
2,994,702 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2,197,135 | 73.4% |
| No | 797,567 | 26.6% |
| Total | 2,994,702 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa County | 1,323,885 | 487,161 | 1,811,046 | 73.1% |
| Pima County | 323,118 | 138,399 | 461,517 | 70.0% |
| Pinal County | 136,773 | 43,181 | 179,954 | 76.0% |
| Yavapai County | 101,499 | 28,945 | 130,444 | 77.8% |
| Mohave County | 78,248 | 17,825 | 96,073 | 81.4% |
| Coconino County | 44,438 | 19,808 | 64,246 | 69.2% |
| Yuma County | 45,858 | 14,684 | 60,542 | 75.7% |
| Cochise County | 40,171 | 12,562 | 52,733 | 76.2% |
| Navajo County | 34,001 | 11,183 | 45,184 | 75.3% |
| Apache County | 20,018 | 8,851 | 28,869 | 69.3% |
| Gila County | 19,363 | 5,325 | 24,688 | 78.4% |
| Santa Cruz County | 11,271 | 4,966 | 16,237 | 69.4% |
| Graham County | 10,779 | 2,668 | 13,447 | 80.2% |
| La Paz County | 5,335 | 1,377 | 6,712 | 79.5% |
| Greenlee County | 2,378 | 632 | 3,010 | 79.0% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Proposition 317 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Arizona's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, azfamily.com, axios.com. All measures.