2026 forecast
Virginia Senate forecast
Mark Warner vs Bert Mizusawa. The model has Warner ahead by 21.7 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
133 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +28.4 and D +14.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +21.9 | |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 996 LV | 115d | D +18.3 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project (R) | 1,047 LV | 157d | D +27.0 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Warner | Mizusawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 55.3 | 41.4 |
| Women | 54% | 62.5 | 34.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 62.6 | 34.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 59.2 | 37.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 58.4 | 38.2 |
| 65+ | 29% | 58.3 | 38.4 |
| RaceWhite | 67% | 47.9 | 48.8 |
| Black | 19% | 86.8 | 10.0 |
| Latino | 6% | 70.8 | 26.0 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 80.3 | 15.9 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 31% | 42.1 | 54.6 |
| White women | 37% | 52.7 | 44.0 |
| Black men | 9% | 84.1 | 12.7 |
| Black women | 10% | 89.1 | 7.7 |
| Latino men | 3% | 69.8 | 27.0 |
| Latino women | 3% | 71.7 | 25.1 |
| All other races | 9% | 80.3 | 15.9 |