2026 forecast · Rhode Island Treasurer
James Diossa is all but certain to win Rhode Island's treasurer race.
James Diossa vs Micholas Credle, with James Diossa running again. The model has Diossa ahead by 31.8 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +31.8Updated October 22, 2026
James Diossa
Democrat
65.4%
278,566 projected votes
Micholas Credle
Republican
33.6%
143,103 projected votes
100%Diossa
0%Credle
Diossa all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Diossa wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Diossa +135,463 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide D +31.8, a 135,463 vote marginCredle +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected statewide vote
425,929 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| James Diossa D | 278,566 | 65.4% |
| Micholas Credle R | 143,103 | 33.6% |
| Other candidates | 4,259 | 1.0% |
| Total | 425,929 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
5 counties| County | Diossa | Credle | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 278,567 | 143,104 | 4,258 | 425,929 | D +31.8 |
| Providence County | 148,411 | 72,539 | 2,232 | 223,182 | D +34.0 |
| Kent County | 45,368 | 30,540 | 766 | 76,674 | D +19.3 |
| Washington County | 41,382 | 22,759 | 647 | 64,788 | D +28.7 |
| Newport County | 26,561 | 10,858 | 378 | 37,797 | D +41.5 |
| Bristol County | 16,845 | 6,408 | 235 | 23,488 | D +44.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +39.7 and D +23.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +24.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +32.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +29.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +32.1 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +31.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +39.7 and D +23.9.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Diossa | Credle | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||