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2026 forecast · Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor

Sabina Matos is all but certain to win Rhode Island's lieutenant governor race.

Sabina Matos vs John Loughlin, with Sabina Matos running again. The model has Matos ahead by 11.7 points, with a 99 percent chance of winning.

Likely DModel D +11.7Polls D +1.6Updated October 22, 2026
Sabina Matos
Democrat
51.7%
220,190 projected votes
John Loughlin
Republican
40.0%
170,497 projected votes
99%Matos
1%Loughlin
Matos all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Matos wins about 99 of 100

Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor by county

Bristol CountyKent CountyNewport CountyProvidence CountyWashington CountyProvidenceKentWashingtonNewportBristol
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Providence County: Matos +31,192Newport County: Matos +8,127Bristol County: Matos +5,796Washington County: Matos +5,356Kent County: Loughlin +776
Matos +50,471 net votes from 4 countiesStatewide D +11.7, a 49,695 vote marginLoughlin +776 net votes from 1 counties

Projected statewide vote

425,929 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Sabina Matos D220,19051.7%
John Loughlin R170,49740.0%
Other candidates35,2418.3%
Total425,929100%

Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.

Projected vote by county

5 counties
CountyMatosLoughlinOtherTotalMargin
Statewide220,191170,49635,242425,929D +11.7
Providence County117,95486,76218,466223,182D +14.0
Kent County34,77735,5536,34476,674R +1.0
Washington County32,39227,0365,36064,788D +8.3
Newport County21,39813,2713,12837,797D +21.5
Bristol County13,6707,8741,94423,488D +24.7

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Range of outcomes

80 percent of simulations
D +18.0D +5.3D +11.7

80 percent of simulations fall between D +18.0 and D +5.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, Senate and governorD +24.6
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +33.1
Blend of every legD +29.3
With incumbency and primary unityD +32.4
With polls, 65% weightD +11.7

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +18.0 and D +5.3.

Polls of the race

4 polls
R+4R+2EvenD+2D+4D+6D+89/179/2410/110/810/1510/22Matos aheadLoughlin aheadEmerson College for WPRI, 800, R +1.0, 11 days agoEmerson College/WPRI, 800, R +1.0, 11 days agoSalve Regina Pell Center/Embold Research, 815, R +1.0, 14 days agoUniversity of New Hampshire Survey Center, 598, D +4.0, 31 days agoR +1.0poll trendD +1.6average
PollsterSampleEndedMatosLoughlinMargin
Emerson College for WPRI800 LV2026-10-114445R +1.0
Emerson College/WPRI800 LV2026-10-114445R +1.0
Salve Regina Pell Center/Embold Research815 LV2026-10-084344R +1.0
University of New Hampshire Survey Center598 LV2026-09-214844D +4.0