2026 forecast · Nevada Treasurer
Tya Mathis-Coleman is very likely to win Nevada's treasurer race.
Tya Mathis-Coleman vs Drew Johnson, an open seat. The model has Mathis-Coleman ahead by 7.4 points, with a 88 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +7.4Polls D +1.3Updated October 22, 2026
Tya Mathis-Coleman
Democrat
50.6%
623,767 projected votes
Drew Johnson
Republican
43.2%
532,672 projected votes
88%Mathis-Coleman
12%Johnson
Mathis-Coleman very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Mathis-Coleman wins about 88 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Mathis-Coleman +150,265 net votes from 2 countiesStatewide D +7.4, a 91,095 vote marginJohnson +59,170 net votes from 15 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,232,832 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Tya Mathis-Coleman D | 623,767 | 50.6% |
| Drew Johnson R | 532,672 | 43.2% |
| Other candidates | 76,391 | 6.2% |
| Total | 1,232,832 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
17 counties| County | Mathis-Coleman | Johnson | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 623,767 | 532,672 | 76,393 | 1,232,832 | D +7.4 |
| Clark County | 467,150 | 329,587 | 52,631 | 849,368 | D +16.2 |
| Washoe County | 110,460 | 97,758 | 13,755 | 221,973 | D +5.7 |
| Douglas County | 9,542 | 18,743 | 1,869 | 30,154 | R +30.5 |
| Lyon County | 7,054 | 18,850 | 1,712 | 27,616 | R +42.7 |
| Carson City | 11,338 | 13,532 | 1,643 | 26,513 | R +8.3 |
| Nye County | 6,946 | 15,090 | 1,455 | 23,491 | R +34.7 |
| Elko County | 3,815 | 14,055 | 1,180 | 19,050 | R +53.8 |
| Churchill County | 2,501 | 8,161 | 704 | 11,366 | R +49.8 |
| Humboldt County | 1,437 | 5,028 | 427 | 6,892 | R +52.1 |
| White Pine County | 766 | 2,800 | 236 | 3,802 | R +53.5 |
| Storey County | 747 | 1,642 | 158 | 2,547 | R +35.1 |
| Lander County | 406 | 1,834 | 148 | 2,388 | R +59.8 |
| Lincoln County | 293 | 1,822 | 140 | 2,255 | R +67.8 |
| Pershing County | 489 | 1,517 | 132 | 2,138 | R +48.1 |
| Mineral County | 690 | 1,198 | 125 | 2,013 | R +25.3 |
| Eureka County | 73 | 709 | 51 | 833 | R +76.4 |
| Esmeralda County | 60 | 346 | 27 | 433 | R +65.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +15.4 and R +0.7. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +2.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +12.5 |
| Blend of every leg | D +6.8 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +9.1 |
| With polls, 15% weight | D +7.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +15.4 and R +0.7.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Mathis-Coleman | Johnson | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse) | 708 LV | 2026-09-26 | 40 | 39 | D +1.0 |