2026 forecast · Nevada State Controller
Michael MacDougall is slightly favored to win Nevada's state controller race.
Michael MacDougall vs Andy Matthews, with Andy Matthews running again. The model has MacDougall ahead by 3.4 points, with a 70 percent chance of winning.
Lean DModel D +3.4Updated October 22, 2026
Michael MacDougall
Democrat
49.0%
604,228 projected votes
Andy Matthews
Republican
45.6%
561,999 projected votes
70%MacDougall
30%Matthews
MacDougall favoredEach square is one simulated election night, MacDougall wins about 70 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
MacDougall +108,338 net votes from 2 countiesStatewide D +3.4, a 42,230 vote marginMatthews +66,108 net votes from 15 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,232,832 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Michael MacDougall D | 604,228 | 49.0% |
| Andy Matthews R | 561,999 | 45.6% |
| Other candidates | 66,603 | 5.4% |
| Total | 1,232,832 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
17 counties| County | MacDougall | Matthews | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 604,230 | 562,000 | 66,602 | 1,232,832 | D +3.4 |
| Clark County | 454,127 | 349,354 | 45,887 | 849,368 | D +12.3 |
| Washoe County | 106,773 | 103,208 | 11,992 | 221,973 | D +1.6 |
| Douglas County | 8,891 | 19,633 | 1,630 | 30,154 | R +35.6 |
| Lyon County | 6,625 | 19,499 | 1,492 | 27,616 | R +46.6 |
| Carson City | 10,886 | 14,195 | 1,432 | 26,513 | R +12.5 |
| Nye County | 6,430 | 15,792 | 1,269 | 23,491 | R +39.9 |
| Elko County | 3,501 | 14,520 | 1,029 | 19,050 | R +57.8 |
| Churchill County | 2,340 | 8,412 | 614 | 11,366 | R +53.4 |
| Humboldt County | 1,344 | 5,176 | 372 | 6,892 | R +55.6 |
| White Pine County | 718 | 2,879 | 205 | 3,802 | R +56.8 |
| Storey County | 694 | 1,715 | 138 | 2,547 | R +40.1 |
| Lander County | 378 | 1,881 | 129 | 2,388 | R +62.9 |
| Lincoln County | 275 | 1,859 | 121 | 2,255 | R +70.3 |
| Pershing County | 461 | 1,562 | 115 | 2,138 | R +51.5 |
| Mineral County | 658 | 1,246 | 109 | 2,013 | R +29.2 |
| Eureka County | 66 | 722 | 45 | 833 | R +78.7 |
| Esmeralda County | 63 | 347 | 23 | 433 | R +65.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +11.9 and R +5.0. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +2.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +12.8 |
| Blend of every leg | D +7.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +3.6 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +3.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +11.9 and R +5.0.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | MacDougall | Matthews | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||