2026 forecast · Illinois Secretary Of State
Alexi Giannoulias is all but certain to win Illinois's secretary of state race.
Alexi Giannoulias vs Diane Harris, with Alexi Giannoulias running again. The model has Giannoulias ahead by 27.8 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +27.8Updated October 22, 2026
Alexi Giannoulias
Democrat
62.6%
2,913,396 projected votes
Diane Harris
Republican
34.8%
1,619,999 projected votes
100%Giannoulias
0%Harris
Giannoulias all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Giannoulias wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Giannoulias +1,552,180 net votes from 18 countiesStatewide D +27.8, a 1,293,386 vote marginHarris +258,794 net votes from 84 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,650,403 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Alexi Giannoulias D | 2,913,396 | 62.6% |
| Diane Harris R | 1,619,999 | 34.8% |
| Other candidates | 117,006 | 2.5% |
| Total | 4,650,403 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
102 counties| County | Giannoulias | Harris | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,913,393 | 1,620,007 | 117,003 | 4,650,403 | D +27.8 |
| Cook County | 1,410,432 | 296,775 | 44,063 | 1,751,270 | D +63.6 |
| DuPage County | 238,692 | 121,435 | 9,294 | 369,421 | D +31.7 |
| Will County | 152,246 | 100,289 | 6,517 | 259,052 | D +20.1 |
| Lake County | 171,122 | 76,892 | 6,401 | 254,415 | D +37.0 |
| Kane County | 109,927 | 63,234 | 4,469 | 177,630 | D +26.3 |
| McHenry County | 68,201 | 54,617 | 3,170 | 125,988 | D +10.8 |
| Madison County | 52,641 | 51,826 | 2,697 | 107,164 | D +0.8 |
| Winnebago County | 53,523 | 42,715 | 2,483 | 98,721 | D +10.9 |
| St. Clair County | 59,373 | 36,707 | 2,480 | 98,560 | D +23.0 |
| Sangamon County | 42,903 | 38,693 | 2,106 | 83,702 | D +5.0 |
| Champaign County | 50,958 | 24,007 | 1,935 | 76,900 | D +35.0 |
| McLean County | 38,210 | 30,884 | 1,782 | 70,876 | D +10.3 |
| Peoria County | 37,491 | 26,322 | 1,647 | 65,460 | D +17.1 |
| Tazewell County | 22,261 | 31,169 | 1,379 | 54,809 | R +16.3 |
| Rock Island County | 31,965 | 19,078 | 1,317 | 52,360 | D +24.6 |
| Kendall County | 29,058 | 20,506 | 1,278 | 50,842 | D +16.8 |
| LaSalle County | 20,013 | 21,354 | 1,069 | 42,436 | R +3.2 |
| Kankakee County | 17,140 | 20,435 | 970 | 38,545 | R +8.6 |
| DeKalb County | 21,761 | 15,623 | 964 | 38,348 | D +16.0 |
| Macon County | 16,894 | 20,409 | 962 | 38,265 | R +9.2 |
| Williamson County | 9,365 | 16,947 | 678 | 26,990 | R +28.1 |
| Adams County | 6,886 | 19,107 | 671 | 26,664 | R +45.8 |
| Vermilion County | 9,014 | 15,173 | 623 | 24,810 | R +24.8 |
| Whiteside County | 10,315 | 10,641 | 540 | 21,496 | R +1.5 |
| Grundy County | 8,627 | 11,733 | 526 | 20,886 | R +14.9 |
| Ogle County | 8,061 | 12,213 | 523 | 20,797 | R +20.0 |
| Henry County | 8,505 | 11,424 | 515 | 20,444 | R +14.3 |
| Jackson County | 11,041 | 7,870 | 487 | 19,398 | D +16.4 |
| Macoupin County | 6,923 | 11,792 | 483 | 19,198 | R +25.4 |
| Boone County | 8,787 | 9,829 | 480 | 19,096 | R +5.5 |
| Knox County | 9,174 | 9,065 | 470 | 18,709 | D +0.6 |
| Coles County | 7,091 | 10,485 | 454 | 18,030 | R +18.8 |
| Stephenson County | 7,724 | 9,458 | 443 | 17,625 | R +9.8 |
| Woodford County | 5,613 | 11,360 | 437 | 17,410 | R +33.0 |
| Monroe County | 6,061 | 10,083 | 416 | 16,560 | R +24.3 |
| Effingham County | 3,123 | 12,675 | 408 | 16,206 | R +58.9 |
| Clinton County | 4,110 | 11,245 | 397 | 15,752 | R +45.3 |
| Franklin County | 4,286 | 10,066 | 370 | 14,722 | R +39.3 |
| Marion County | 4,056 | 9,720 | 356 | 14,132 | R +40.1 |
| Jefferson County | 3,871 | 9,873 | 354 | 14,098 | R +42.6 |
| Livingston County | 3,962 | 9,481 | 347 | 13,790 | R +40.0 |
| Fulton County | 6,042 | 7,282 | 344 | 13,668 | R +9.1 |
| Christian County | 4,116 | 8,880 | 336 | 13,332 | R +35.7 |
| Bureau County | 5,498 | 7,494 | 336 | 13,328 | R +15.0 |
| Lee County | 5,510 | 7,260 | 330 | 13,100 | R +13.3 |
| Morgan County | 4,497 | 7,571 | 312 | 12,380 | R +24.8 |
| Randolph County | 3,663 | 8,189 | 306 | 12,158 | R +37.2 |
| Montgomery County | 3,784 | 7,132 | 282 | 11,198 | R +29.9 |
| Iroquois County | 2,505 | 8,313 | 279 | 11,097 | R +52.3 |
| Logan County | 3,286 | 7,035 | 267 | 10,588 | R +35.4 |
| McDonough County | 4,423 | 5,740 | 262 | 10,425 | R +12.6 |
| Jo Daviess County | 4,527 | 5,213 | 252 | 9,992 | R +6.9 |
| Shelby County | 2,198 | 7,541 | 252 | 9,991 | R +53.5 |
| Jersey County | 2,787 | 6,734 | 245 | 9,766 | R +40.4 |
| Saline County | 2,656 | 6,090 | 226 | 8,972 | R +38.3 |
| Fayette County | 1,667 | 6,624 | 215 | 8,506 | R +58.3 |
| Perry County | 2,448 | 5,484 | 205 | 8,137 | R +37.3 |
| Piatt County | 2,992 | 4,670 | 198 | 7,860 | R +21.4 |
| Hancock County | 1,992 | 5,431 | 192 | 7,615 | R +45.2 |
| Crawford County | 1,798 | 5,621 | 191 | 7,610 | R +50.2 |
| Wayne County | 1,109 | 5,821 | 180 | 7,110 | R +66.3 |
| Union County | 2,436 | 4,479 | 179 | 7,094 | R +28.8 |
| Douglas County | 1,916 | 4,974 | 178 | 7,068 | R +43.3 |
| Mercer County | 2,845 | 3,946 | 175 | 6,966 | R +15.8 |
| Bond County | 2,188 | 4,495 | 173 | 6,856 | R +33.6 |
| Clark County | 1,675 | 4,888 | 169 | 6,732 | R +47.7 |
| Edgar County | 1,683 | 4,837 | 168 | 6,688 | R +47.1 |
| Richland County | 1,678 | 4,708 | 166 | 6,552 | R +46.3 |
| De Witt County | 1,908 | 4,403 | 163 | 6,474 | R +38.5 |
| Carroll County | 2,264 | 3,997 | 161 | 6,422 | R +27.0 |
| Pike County | 1,329 | 4,882 | 159 | 6,370 | R +55.8 |
| Washington County | 1,537 | 4,571 | 158 | 6,266 | R +48.4 |
| Warren County | 2,565 | 3,518 | 157 | 6,240 | R +15.3 |
| White County | 1,342 | 4,480 | 150 | 5,972 | R +52.5 |
| Clay County | 978 | 4,800 | 150 | 5,928 | R +64.5 |
| Moultrie County | 1,471 | 3,920 | 139 | 5,530 | R +44.3 |
| Massac County | 1,513 | 3,806 | 137 | 5,456 | R +42.0 |
| Ford County | 1,497 | 3,816 | 137 | 5,450 | R +42.6 |
| Menard County | 1,820 | 3,479 | 137 | 5,436 | R +30.5 |
| Lawrence County | 1,358 | 3,933 | 137 | 5,428 | R +47.4 |
| Mason County | 1,848 | 3,319 | 133 | 5,300 | R +27.8 |
| Johnson County | 1,164 | 3,972 | 132 | 5,268 | R +53.3 |
| Marshall County | 1,790 | 3,098 | 127 | 5,015 | R +26.1 |
| Greene County | 1,232 | 3,623 | 126 | 4,981 | R +48.0 |
| Cumberland County | 1,077 | 3,729 | 124 | 4,930 | R +53.8 |
| Jasper County | 910 | 3,632 | 117 | 4,659 | R +58.4 |
| Wabash County | 1,126 | 3,193 | 111 | 4,430 | R +46.7 |
| Cass County | 1,431 | 2,817 | 110 | 4,358 | R +31.8 |
| Hamilton County | 736 | 2,744 | 90 | 3,570 | R +56.2 |
| Schuyler County | 992 | 2,174 | 81 | 3,247 | R +36.4 |
| Henderson County | 1,025 | 1,872 | 75 | 2,972 | R +28.5 |
| Edwards County | 428 | 2,357 | 72 | 2,857 | R +67.5 |
| Putnam County | 1,240 | 1,466 | 70 | 2,776 | R +8.1 |
| Stark County | 724 | 1,550 | 59 | 2,333 | R +35.4 |
| Calhoun County | 663 | 1,594 | 58 | 2,315 | R +40.2 |
| Scott County | 499 | 1,664 | 55 | 2,218 | R +52.5 |
| Gallatin County | 619 | 1,534 | 55 | 2,208 | R +41.4 |
| Brown County | 455 | 1,681 | 56 | 2,192 | R +55.9 |
| Pulaski County | 802 | 1,233 | 53 | 2,088 | R +20.6 |
| Alexander County | 914 | 921 | 47 | 1,882 | R +0.3 |
| Pope County | 414 | 1,323 | 45 | 1,782 | R +51.0 |
| Hardin County | 397 | 1,244 | 43 | 1,684 | R +50.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +36.8 and D +18.8. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +26.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +21.9 |
| Blend of every leg | D +25.7 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +28.5 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +27.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +36.8 and D +18.8.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Giannoulias | Harris | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||