2026 forecast · Illinois Comptroller
Margaret Croke is all but certain to win Illinois's comptroller race.
Margaret Croke vs Bryan Drew, an open seat. The model has Croke ahead by 24.3 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +24.3Updated October 22, 2026
Margaret Croke
Democrat
60.8%
2,825,372 projected votes
Bryan Drew
Republican
36.5%
1,696,244 projected votes
100%Croke
0%Drew
Croke all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Croke wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Croke +1,428,684 net votes from 16 countiesStatewide D +24.3, a 1,129,121 vote marginDrew +299,563 net votes from 86 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,650,403 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Margaret Croke D | 2,825,372 | 60.8% |
| Bryan Drew R | 1,696,244 | 36.5% |
| Other candidates | 128,786 | 2.8% |
| Total | 4,650,403 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
102 counties| County | Croke | Drew | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,825,374 | 1,696,253 | 128,776 | 4,650,403 | D +24.3 |
| Cook County | 1,384,901 | 317,870 | 48,499 | 1,751,270 | D +60.9 |
| DuPage County | 230,863 | 128,328 | 10,230 | 369,421 | D +27.8 |
| Will County | 146,421 | 105,457 | 7,174 | 259,052 | D +15.8 |
| Lake County | 165,934 | 81,436 | 7,045 | 254,415 | D +33.2 |
| Kane County | 106,054 | 66,658 | 4,918 | 177,630 | D +22.2 |
| McHenry County | 65,296 | 57,203 | 3,489 | 125,988 | D +6.4 |
| Madison County | 50,145 | 54,051 | 2,968 | 107,164 | R +3.6 |
| Winnebago County | 51,261 | 44,726 | 2,734 | 98,721 | D +6.6 |
| St. Clair County | 57,178 | 38,653 | 2,729 | 98,560 | D +18.8 |
| Sangamon County | 40,963 | 40,420 | 2,319 | 83,702 | D +0.7 |
| Champaign County | 49,381 | 25,390 | 2,129 | 76,900 | D +31.2 |
| McLean County | 36,586 | 32,328 | 1,962 | 70,876 | D +6.0 |
| Peoria County | 36,007 | 27,641 | 1,812 | 65,460 | D +12.8 |
| Tazewell County | 21,026 | 32,266 | 1,517 | 54,809 | R +20.5 |
| Rock Island County | 30,814 | 20,095 | 1,451 | 52,360 | D +20.5 |
| Kendall County | 27,907 | 21,527 | 1,408 | 50,842 | D +12.6 |
| LaSalle County | 19,030 | 22,231 | 1,175 | 42,436 | R +7.5 |
| Kankakee County | 16,250 | 21,228 | 1,067 | 38,545 | R +12.9 |
| DeKalb County | 20,895 | 16,391 | 1,062 | 38,348 | D +11.7 |
| Macon County | 16,015 | 21,191 | 1,059 | 38,265 | R +13.5 |
| Williamson County | 8,787 | 17,456 | 747 | 26,990 | R +32.1 |
| Adams County | 6,403 | 19,523 | 738 | 26,664 | R +49.2 |
| Vermilion County | 8,472 | 15,651 | 687 | 24,810 | R +28.9 |
| Whiteside County | 9,817 | 11,084 | 595 | 21,496 | R +5.9 |
| Grundy County | 8,152 | 12,155 | 579 | 20,886 | R +19.2 |
| Ogle County | 7,599 | 12,622 | 576 | 20,797 | R +24.1 |
| Henry County | 8,042 | 11,835 | 567 | 20,444 | R +18.6 |
| Jackson County | 10,604 | 8,258 | 536 | 19,398 | D +12.1 |
| Macoupin County | 6,506 | 12,161 | 531 | 19,198 | R +29.4 |
| Boone County | 8,347 | 10,220 | 529 | 19,096 | R +9.8 |
| Knox County | 8,741 | 9,450 | 518 | 18,709 | R +3.8 |
| Coles County | 6,691 | 10,840 | 499 | 18,030 | R +23.0 |
| Stephenson County | 7,320 | 9,817 | 488 | 17,625 | R +14.2 |
| Woodford County | 5,254 | 11,675 | 481 | 17,410 | R +36.9 |
| Monroe County | 5,697 | 10,404 | 459 | 16,560 | R +28.4 |
| Effingham County | 2,883 | 12,875 | 448 | 16,206 | R +61.7 |
| Clinton County | 3,820 | 11,495 | 437 | 15,752 | R +48.7 |
| Franklin County | 3,998 | 10,317 | 407 | 14,722 | R +42.9 |
| Marion County | 3,782 | 9,958 | 392 | 14,132 | R +43.7 |
| Jefferson County | 3,605 | 10,103 | 390 | 14,098 | R +46.1 |
| Livingston County | 3,695 | 9,713 | 382 | 13,790 | R +43.6 |
| Fulton County | 5,729 | 7,561 | 378 | 13,668 | R +13.4 |
| Christian County | 3,848 | 9,114 | 370 | 13,332 | R +39.5 |
| Bureau County | 5,198 | 7,761 | 369 | 13,328 | R +19.2 |
| Lee County | 5,213 | 7,524 | 363 | 13,100 | R +17.6 |
| Morgan County | 4,229 | 7,808 | 343 | 12,380 | R +28.9 |
| Randolph County | 3,419 | 8,402 | 337 | 12,158 | R +41.0 |
| Montgomery County | 3,548 | 7,340 | 310 | 11,198 | R +33.9 |
| Iroquois County | 2,319 | 8,471 | 307 | 11,097 | R +55.4 |
| Logan County | 3,073 | 7,222 | 293 | 10,588 | R +39.2 |
| McDonough County | 4,188 | 5,948 | 289 | 10,425 | R +16.9 |
| Jo Daviess County | 4,296 | 5,419 | 277 | 9,992 | R +11.2 |
| Shelby County | 2,035 | 7,680 | 276 | 9,991 | R +56.5 |
| Jersey County | 2,598 | 6,898 | 270 | 9,766 | R +44.0 |
| Saline County | 2,479 | 6,244 | 249 | 8,972 | R +42.0 |
| Fayette County | 1,539 | 6,731 | 236 | 8,506 | R +61.0 |
| Perry County | 2,286 | 5,626 | 225 | 8,137 | R +41.0 |
| Piatt County | 2,818 | 4,824 | 218 | 7,860 | R +25.5 |
| Hancock County | 1,853 | 5,552 | 210 | 7,615 | R +48.6 |
| Crawford County | 1,668 | 5,732 | 210 | 7,610 | R +53.4 |
| Wayne County | 1,018 | 5,894 | 198 | 7,110 | R +68.6 |
| Union County | 2,286 | 4,612 | 196 | 7,094 | R +32.8 |
| Douglas County | 1,784 | 5,088 | 196 | 7,068 | R +46.7 |
| Mercer County | 2,689 | 4,085 | 192 | 6,966 | R +20.0 |
| Bond County | 2,048 | 4,618 | 190 | 6,856 | R +37.5 |
| Clark County | 1,555 | 4,991 | 186 | 6,732 | R +51.0 |
| Edgar County | 1,564 | 4,940 | 184 | 6,688 | R +50.5 |
| Richland County | 1,560 | 4,810 | 182 | 6,552 | R +49.6 |
| De Witt County | 1,781 | 4,514 | 179 | 6,474 | R +42.2 |
| Carroll County | 2,126 | 4,118 | 178 | 6,422 | R +31.0 |
| Pike County | 1,227 | 4,967 | 176 | 6,370 | R +58.7 |
| Washington County | 1,426 | 4,667 | 173 | 6,266 | R +51.7 |
| Warren County | 2,424 | 3,642 | 174 | 6,240 | R +19.5 |
| White County | 1,242 | 4,565 | 165 | 5,972 | R +55.6 |
| Clay County | 900 | 4,864 | 164 | 5,928 | R +66.9 |
| Moultrie County | 1,370 | 4,008 | 152 | 5,530 | R +47.7 |
| Massac County | 1,409 | 3,897 | 150 | 5,456 | R +45.6 |
| Ford County | 1,394 | 3,905 | 151 | 5,450 | R +46.1 |
| Menard County | 1,706 | 3,579 | 151 | 5,436 | R +34.5 |
| Lawrence County | 1,262 | 4,015 | 151 | 5,428 | R +50.7 |
| Mason County | 1,734 | 3,419 | 147 | 5,300 | R +31.8 |
| Johnson County | 1,077 | 4,045 | 146 | 5,268 | R +56.4 |
| Marshall County | 1,682 | 3,194 | 139 | 5,015 | R +30.1 |
| Greene County | 1,143 | 3,700 | 138 | 4,981 | R +51.3 |
| Cumberland County | 996 | 3,797 | 137 | 4,930 | R +56.8 |
| Jasper County | 839 | 3,691 | 129 | 4,659 | R +61.2 |
| Wabash County | 1,046 | 3,262 | 122 | 4,430 | R +50.0 |
| Cass County | 1,340 | 2,897 | 121 | 4,358 | R +35.8 |
| Hamilton County | 680 | 2,791 | 99 | 3,570 | R +59.1 |
| Schuyler County | 926 | 2,231 | 90 | 3,247 | R +40.2 |
| Henderson County | 963 | 1,927 | 82 | 2,972 | R +32.5 |
| Edwards County | 393 | 2,385 | 79 | 2,857 | R +69.7 |
| Putnam County | 1,176 | 1,522 | 78 | 2,776 | R +12.5 |
| Stark County | 677 | 1,591 | 65 | 2,333 | R +39.2 |
| Calhoun County | 618 | 1,633 | 64 | 2,315 | R +43.9 |
| Scott County | 461 | 1,696 | 61 | 2,218 | R +55.6 |
| Gallatin County | 577 | 1,570 | 61 | 2,208 | R +45.0 |
| Brown County | 421 | 1,710 | 61 | 2,192 | R +58.9 |
| Pulaski County | 755 | 1,275 | 58 | 2,088 | R +24.9 |
| Alexander County | 870 | 960 | 52 | 1,882 | R +4.8 |
| Pope County | 383 | 1,350 | 49 | 1,782 | R +54.2 |
| Hardin County | 368 | 1,269 | 47 | 1,684 | R +53.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +33.3 and D +15.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +26.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +18.9 |
| Blend of every leg | D +25.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +25.0 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +24.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +33.3 and D +15.3.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Croke | Drew | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||