2026 forecast · Florida Treasurer
Blaise Ingoglia is favored to win Florida's treasurer race.
Annette Taddeo vs Blaise Ingoglia, with Blaise Ingoglia running again. The model has Ingoglia ahead by 3.1 points, with a 72 percent chance of winning.
Lean RModel R +3.1Polls R +1.8Updated October 22, 2026
Annette Taddeo
Democrat
47.9%
4,282,958 projected votes
Blaise Ingoglia
Republican
51.1%
4,564,245 projected votes
72%Ingoglia
28%Taddeo
Ingoglia favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Ingoglia wins about 72 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Taddeo +777,509 net votes from 12 countiesStatewide R +3.1, a 281,292 vote marginIngoglia +1,058,801 net votes from 55 counties
Projected statewide vote
8,936,569 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Blaise Ingoglia R | 4,564,245 | 51.1% |
| Annette Taddeo D | 4,282,958 | 47.9% |
| Other candidates | 89,365 | 1.0% |
| Total | 8,936,569 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
67 counties| County | Taddeo | Ingoglia | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,282,956 | 4,564,248 | 89,366 | 8,936,570 | R +3.1 |
| Miami-Dade County | 450,678 | 375,212 | 8,342 | 834,232 | D +9.1 |
| Broward County | 476,404 | 224,403 | 7,079 | 707,886 | D +35.6 |
| Palm Beach County | 351,601 | 262,359 | 6,202 | 620,162 | D +14.4 |
| Hillsborough County | 303,590 | 252,324 | 5,616 | 561,530 | D +9.1 |
| Orange County | 312,344 | 180,625 | 4,979 | 497,948 | D +26.4 |
| Pinellas County | 238,543 | 211,233 | 4,544 | 454,320 | D +6.0 |
| Duval County | 213,599 | 178,470 | 3,961 | 396,030 | D +8.9 |
| Lee County | 120,546 | 200,267 | 3,241 | 324,054 | R +24.6 |
| Brevard County | 124,852 | 170,710 | 2,986 | 298,548 | R +15.4 |
| Polk County | 116,013 | 158,849 | 2,776 | 277,638 | R +15.4 |
| Volusia County | 108,909 | 144,897 | 2,564 | 256,370 | R +14.0 |
| Pasco County | 102,035 | 151,260 | 2,559 | 255,854 | R +19.2 |
| Sarasota County | 105,689 | 129,476 | 2,375 | 237,540 | R +10.0 |
| Seminole County | 107,948 | 97,820 | 2,078 | 207,846 | D +4.9 |
| Manatee County | 78,924 | 111,018 | 1,919 | 191,861 | R +16.7 |
| Lake County | 70,363 | 110,352 | 1,825 | 182,540 | R +21.9 |
| Collier County | 61,663 | 118,304 | 1,817 | 181,784 | R +31.2 |
| Marion County | 62,378 | 111,869 | 1,761 | 176,008 | R +28.1 |
| St. Johns County | 57,174 | 99,716 | 1,586 | 158,476 | R +26.8 |
| St. Lucie County | 69,570 | 74,981 | 1,460 | 146,011 | R +3.7 |
| Leon County | 90,878 | 45,744 | 1,380 | 138,002 | D +32.7 |
| Escambia County | 57,813 | 76,414 | 1,355 | 135,582 | R +13.7 |
| Osceola County | 70,459 | 57,170 | 1,289 | 128,918 | D +10.3 |
| Alachua County | 77,242 | 39,001 | 1,173 | 117,416 | D +32.6 |
| Charlotte County | 35,521 | 66,240 | 1,029 | 102,790 | R +29.9 |
| Clay County | 31,739 | 69,152 | 1,019 | 101,910 | R +36.7 |
| Sumter County | 28,673 | 63,651 | 932 | 93,256 | R +37.5 |
| Okaloosa County | 27,180 | 64,438 | 926 | 92,544 | R +40.3 |
| Hernando County | 31,043 | 58,210 | 901 | 90,154 | R +30.1 |
| Santa Rosa County | 21,972 | 65,402 | 882 | 88,256 | R +49.2 |
| Indian River County | 32,236 | 51,109 | 842 | 84,187 | R +22.4 |
| Martin County | 30,971 | 51,657 | 834 | 83,462 | R +24.8 |
| Citrus County | 24,021 | 57,644 | 825 | 82,490 | R +40.8 |
| Bay County | 21,005 | 57,057 | 789 | 78,851 | R +45.7 |
| Flagler County | 24,729 | 39,906 | 653 | 65,288 | R +23.3 |
| Nassau County | 14,276 | 37,118 | 520 | 51,914 | R +44.0 |
| Highlands County | 13,666 | 30,097 | 441 | 44,204 | R +37.2 |
| Walton County | 8,810 | 30,542 | 398 | 39,750 | R +54.7 |
| Monroe County | 17,567 | 19,335 | 372 | 37,274 | R +4.7 |
| Putnam County | 8,769 | 21,105 | 302 | 30,176 | R +40.9 |
| Columbia County | 7,429 | 20,025 | 277 | 27,731 | R +45.4 |
| Levy County | 5,243 | 14,565 | 200 | 20,008 | R +46.6 |
| Gadsden County | 13,945 | 5,361 | 195 | 19,501 | D +44.0 |
| Jackson County | 5,871 | 12,893 | 189 | 18,953 | R +37.0 |
| Suwannee County | 3,883 | 14,298 | 183 | 18,364 | R +56.7 |
| Wakulla County | 5,298 | 11,065 | 165 | 16,528 | R +34.9 |
| Okeechobee County | 3,325 | 9,697 | 131 | 13,153 | R +48.4 |
| Baker County | 1,820 | 10,288 | 122 | 12,230 | R +69.2 |
| Bradford County | 2,759 | 8,722 | 116 | 11,597 | R +51.4 |
| DeSoto County | 3,271 | 7,196 | 107 | 10,574 | R +37.1 |
| Hendry County | 3,403 | 6,985 | 104 | 10,492 | R +34.1 |
| Washington County | 2,013 | 8,332 | 105 | 10,450 | R +60.5 |
| Gilchrist County | 1,408 | 7,204 | 87 | 8,699 | R +66.6 |
| Taylor County | 2,056 | 6,434 | 86 | 8,576 | R +51.0 |
| Madison County | 3,130 | 4,631 | 79 | 7,840 | R +19.1 |
| Holmes County | 873 | 6,787 | 78 | 7,738 | R +76.4 |
| Jefferson County | 3,520 | 3,947 | 75 | 7,542 | R +5.7 |
| Gulf County | 1,795 | 5,418 | 73 | 7,286 | R +49.7 |
| Dixie County | 1,116 | 5,745 | 69 | 6,930 | R +66.8 |
| Hardee County | 1,615 | 5,209 | 68 | 6,892 | R +52.1 |
| Franklin County | 1,880 | 3,958 | 58 | 5,896 | R +35.3 |
| Calhoun County | 1,061 | 4,340 | 55 | 5,456 | R +60.1 |
| Union County | 960 | 4,346 | 54 | 5,360 | R +63.2 |
| Hamilton County | 1,753 | 3,161 | 50 | 4,964 | R +28.4 |
| Glades County | 1,132 | 3,338 | 45 | 4,515 | R +48.9 |
| Lafayette County | 438 | 2,777 | 33 | 3,248 | R +72.0 |
| Liberty County | 566 | 2,389 | 30 | 2,985 | R +61.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +3.7 and R +10.0. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +5.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +3.0 |
| Blend of every leg | R +3.8 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +5.8 |
| With polls, 65% weight | R +3.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +3.7 and R +10.0.
Polls of the race
5 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Taddeo | Ingoglia | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 836 LV | 2026-10-07 | 42 | 44 | R +2.0 |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (R-leaning think tank) | 853 LV | 2026-10-04 | 43 | 43 | R +0.0 |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (R-leaning think tank) | 1,166 RV | 2026-10-04 | 38 | 40 | R +2.0 |
| SEA Polling (D) | 701 LV | 2026-09-13 | 42 | 42 | R +0.0 |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USA (listed as D on Wikipedia) | 1,107 LV | 2026-09-09 | 44 | 44 | R +0.0 |