2026 forecast · Florida Agriculture Commissioner
Wilton Simpson is very likely to win Florida's agriculture commissioner race.
Joey Mendoza Atkins vs Wilton Simpson, with Wilton Simpson running again. The model has Simpson ahead by 10.2 points, with a 95 percent chance of winning.
Likely RModel R +10.2Polls R +11.8Updated October 22, 2026
Joey Mendoza Atkins
Democrat
44.4%
3,966,947 projected votes
Wilton Simpson
Republican
54.6%
4,880,255 projected votes
95%Simpson
5%Atkins
Simpson very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Simpson wins about 95 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Atkins +454,957 net votes from 10 countiesStatewide R +10.2, a 913,311 vote marginSimpson +1,368,268 net votes from 57 counties
Projected statewide vote
8,936,569 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Wilton Simpson R | 4,880,255 | 54.6% |
| Joey Mendoza Atkins D | 3,966,947 | 44.4% |
| Other candidates | 89,365 | 1.0% |
| Total | 8,936,569 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
67 counties| County | Atkins | Simpson | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 3,966,945 | 4,880,256 | 89,369 | 8,936,570 | R +10.2 |
| Miami-Dade County | 418,904 | 406,986 | 8,342 | 834,232 | D +1.4 |
| Broward County | 453,751 | 247,055 | 7,080 | 707,886 | D +29.2 |
| Palm Beach County | 328,622 | 285,338 | 6,202 | 620,162 | D +7.0 |
| Hillsborough County | 282,909 | 273,005 | 5,616 | 561,530 | D +1.8 |
| Orange County | 295,808 | 197,160 | 4,980 | 497,948 | D +19.8 |
| Pinellas County | 221,695 | 228,082 | 4,543 | 454,320 | R +1.4 |
| Duval County | 199,415 | 192,655 | 3,960 | 396,030 | D +1.7 |
| Lee County | 109,034 | 211,779 | 3,241 | 324,054 | R +31.7 |
| Brevard County | 114,047 | 181,515 | 2,986 | 298,548 | R +22.6 |
| Polk County | 105,778 | 169,085 | 2,775 | 277,638 | R +22.8 |
| Volusia County | 99,429 | 154,378 | 2,563 | 256,370 | R +21.4 |
| Pasco County | 92,605 | 160,691 | 2,558 | 255,854 | R +26.6 |
| Sarasota County | 96,578 | 138,586 | 2,376 | 237,540 | R +17.7 |
| Seminole County | 100,306 | 105,462 | 2,078 | 207,846 | R +2.5 |
| Manatee County | 71,974 | 117,968 | 1,919 | 191,861 | R +24.0 |
| Lake County | 63,699 | 117,016 | 1,825 | 182,540 | R +29.2 |
| Collier County | 55,320 | 124,647 | 1,817 | 181,784 | R +38.1 |
| Marion County | 56,194 | 118,053 | 1,761 | 176,008 | R +35.1 |
| St. Johns County | 51,614 | 105,277 | 1,585 | 158,476 | R +33.9 |
| St. Lucie County | 64,277 | 80,274 | 1,460 | 146,011 | R +11.0 |
| Leon County | 86,178 | 50,444 | 1,380 | 138,002 | D +25.9 |
| Escambia County | 52,669 | 81,558 | 1,355 | 135,582 | R +21.3 |
| Osceola County | 65,894 | 61,734 | 1,290 | 128,918 | D +3.2 |
| Alachua County | 73,331 | 42,912 | 1,173 | 117,416 | D +25.9 |
| Charlotte County | 31,982 | 69,780 | 1,028 | 102,790 | R +36.8 |
| Clay County | 28,418 | 72,473 | 1,019 | 101,910 | R +43.2 |
| Sumter County | 25,674 | 66,650 | 932 | 93,256 | R +43.9 |
| Okaloosa County | 24,230 | 67,389 | 925 | 92,544 | R +46.6 |
| Hernando County | 27,964 | 61,289 | 901 | 90,154 | R +37.0 |
| Santa Rosa County | 19,370 | 68,003 | 883 | 88,256 | R +55.1 |
| Indian River County | 29,103 | 54,242 | 842 | 84,187 | R +29.9 |
| Martin County | 27,922 | 54,706 | 834 | 83,462 | R +32.1 |
| Citrus County | 21,418 | 60,246 | 826 | 82,490 | R +47.1 |
| Bay County | 18,622 | 59,440 | 789 | 78,851 | R +51.8 |
| Flagler County | 22,415 | 42,219 | 654 | 65,288 | R +30.3 |
| Nassau County | 12,667 | 38,727 | 520 | 51,914 | R +50.2 |
| Highlands County | 12,210 | 31,552 | 442 | 44,204 | R +43.8 |
| Walton County | 7,702 | 31,650 | 398 | 39,750 | R +60.3 |
| Monroe County | 16,113 | 20,788 | 373 | 37,274 | R +12.5 |
| Putnam County | 7,797 | 22,077 | 302 | 30,176 | R +47.3 |
| Columbia County | 6,601 | 20,853 | 277 | 27,731 | R +51.4 |
| Levy County | 4,629 | 15,178 | 201 | 20,008 | R +52.7 |
| Gadsden County | 13,370 | 5,936 | 195 | 19,501 | D +38.1 |
| Jackson County | 5,251 | 13,512 | 190 | 18,953 | R +43.6 |
| Suwannee County | 3,392 | 14,789 | 183 | 18,364 | R +62.1 |
| Wakulla County | 4,719 | 11,644 | 165 | 16,528 | R +41.9 |
| Okeechobee County | 2,925 | 10,096 | 132 | 13,153 | R +54.5 |
| Baker County | 1,567 | 10,541 | 122 | 12,230 | R +73.4 |
| Bradford County | 2,416 | 9,065 | 116 | 11,597 | R +57.3 |
| DeSoto County | 2,932 | 7,536 | 106 | 10,574 | R +43.5 |
| Hendry County | 3,047 | 7,340 | 105 | 10,492 | R +40.9 |
| Washington County | 1,755 | 8,590 | 105 | 10,450 | R +65.4 |
| Gilchrist County | 1,219 | 7,393 | 87 | 8,699 | R +71.0 |
| Taylor County | 1,806 | 6,684 | 86 | 8,576 | R +56.9 |
| Madison County | 2,832 | 4,930 | 78 | 7,840 | R +26.8 |
| Holmes County | 747 | 6,913 | 78 | 7,738 | R +79.7 |
| Jefferson County | 3,234 | 4,233 | 75 | 7,542 | R +13.2 |
| Gulf County | 1,584 | 5,629 | 73 | 7,286 | R +55.5 |
| Dixie County | 969 | 5,892 | 69 | 6,930 | R +71.0 |
| Hardee County | 1,425 | 5,399 | 68 | 6,892 | R +57.7 |
| Franklin County | 1,684 | 4,154 | 58 | 5,896 | R +41.9 |
| Calhoun County | 925 | 4,476 | 55 | 5,456 | R +65.1 |
| Union County | 835 | 4,471 | 54 | 5,360 | R +67.8 |
| Hamilton County | 1,581 | 3,333 | 50 | 4,964 | R +35.3 |
| Glades County | 994 | 3,475 | 46 | 4,515 | R +55.0 |
| Lafayette County | 375 | 2,840 | 33 | 3,248 | R +75.9 |
| Liberty County | 493 | 2,463 | 29 | 2,985 | R +66.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +2.2 and R +18.2. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +5.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +2.4 |
| Blend of every leg | R +4.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +10.0 |
| With polls, 20% weight | R +10.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +2.2 and R +18.2.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Atkins | Simpson | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (conservative) | 852 LV | 2026-10-04 | 39 | 50 | R +11.0 |