2026 forecast · Delaware Treasurer
Ted Lauzen is all but certain to win Delaware's treasurer race.
Ted Lauzen vs Mike Ramone, an open seat. The model has Lauzen ahead by 27.6 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +27.6Updated October 22, 2026
Ted Lauzen
Democrat
63.0%
263,489 projected votes
Mike Ramone
Republican
35.4%
148,110 projected votes
100%Lauzen
0%Ramone
Lauzen all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Lauzen wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Lauzen +118,809 net votes from 2 countiesStatewide D +27.6, a 115,379 vote marginRamone +3,430 net votes from 1 counties
Projected statewide vote
417,920 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Ted Lauzen D | 263,489 | 63.0% |
| Mike Ramone R | 148,110 | 35.4% |
| Other candidates | 6,320 | 1.5% |
| Total | 417,920 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
3 counties| County | Lauzen | Ramone | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 263,489 | 148,110 | 6,321 | 417,920 | D +27.6 |
| New Castle County | 168,317 | 56,978 | 3,460 | 228,755 | D +48.7 |
| Sussex County | 56,174 | 59,604 | 1,778 | 117,556 | R +2.9 |
| Kent County | 38,998 | 31,528 | 1,083 | 71,609 | D +10.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +37.2 and D +18.0. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate | D +29.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +19.5 |
| Blend of every leg | D +28.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +28.0 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +27.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +37.2 and D +18.0.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Lauzen | Ramone | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||