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12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 forecast · Delaware Attorney General

Kathy Jennings is all but certain to win Delaware's attorney general race.

Kathy Jennings vs Dave Graham, with Kathy Jennings running again. The model has Jennings ahead by 31.0 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.

Safe DModel D +31.0Updated October 22, 2026
Kathy Jennings
Democrat
64.2%
268,117 projected votes
Dave Graham
Republican
33.2%
138,626 projected votes
100%Jennings
0%Graham
Jennings all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Jennings wins about 100 of 100

Delaware Attorney General by county

Kent CountyNew Castle CountySussex CountyNew CastleSussexKent
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
New Castle County: Jennings +117,188Kent County: Jennings +10,450Sussex County: Jennings +1,854
Jennings +129,492 net votes from 3 countiesStatewide D +31.0, a 129,492 vote marginGraham +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected statewide vote

417,920 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Kathy Jennings D268,11764.2%
Dave Graham R138,62633.2%
Other candidates11,1752.7%
Total417,920100%

Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.

Projected vote by county

3 counties
CountyJenningsGrahamOtherTotalMargin
Statewide268,118138,62611,176417,920D +31.0
New Castle County169,91352,7256,117228,755D +51.2
Sussex County58,13356,2793,144117,556D +1.6
Kent County40,07229,6221,91571,609D +14.6

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Range of outcomes

80 percent of simulations
D +40.6D +21.4D +31.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +40.6 and D +21.4. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, SenateD +29.8
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +22.4
Blend of every legD +28.8
With incumbency and primary unityD +31.8
With polls, none in the raceD +31.0

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +40.6 and D +21.4.

Polls of the race

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedJenningsGrahamMargin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.