2026 forecast · Colorado Secretary Of State
Amanda Gonzalez is all but certain to win Colorado's secretary of state race.
Amanda Gonzalez vs James Wiley, an open seat. The model has Gonzalez ahead by 20.7 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +20.7Updated October 22, 2026
Amanda Gonzalez
Democrat
57.0%
1,614,717 projected votes
James Wiley
Republican
36.3%
1,028,619 projected votes
100%Gonzalez
0%Wiley
Gonzalez all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Gonzalez wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Gonzalez +700,074 net votes from 26 countiesStatewide D +20.7, a 586,098 vote marginWiley +113,976 net votes from 38 counties
Projected statewide vote
2,834,656 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Amanda Gonzalez D | 1,614,717 | 57.0% |
| James Wiley R | 1,028,619 | 36.3% |
| Sean Vadney, Celeste Landry | 191,319 | 6.7% |
| Total | 2,834,656 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
64 counties| County | Gonzalez | Wiley | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,614,714 | 1,028,616 | 191,324 | 2,834,654 | D +20.7 |
| Denver County | 269,147 | 45,061 | 22,742 | 336,950 | D +66.5 |
| El Paso County | 153,596 | 159,295 | 22,647 | 335,538 | R +1.7 |
| Jefferson County | 199,356 | 103,460 | 21,917 | 324,733 | D +29.5 |
| Arapahoe County | 187,311 | 86,687 | 19,831 | 293,829 | D +34.3 |
| Douglas County | 94,676 | 93,262 | 13,603 | 201,541 | D +0.7 |
| Adams County | 116,918 | 70,325 | 13,552 | 200,795 | D +23.2 |
| Larimer County | 115,695 | 69,058 | 13,372 | 198,125 | D +23.5 |
| Boulder County | 140,085 | 28,765 | 12,221 | 181,071 | D +61.5 |
| Weld County | 59,033 | 82,720 | 10,261 | 152,014 | R +15.6 |
| Mesa County | 30,399 | 45,683 | 5,506 | 81,588 | R +18.7 |
| Pueblo County | 37,259 | 34,374 | 5,185 | 76,818 | D +3.8 |
| Broomfield County | 27,116 | 11,190 | 2,772 | 41,078 | D +38.8 |
| La Plata County | 19,431 | 10,588 | 2,173 | 32,192 | D +27.5 |
| Garfield County | 14,201 | 11,199 | 1,838 | 27,238 | D +11.0 |
| Eagle County | 16,329 | 7,048 | 1,692 | 25,069 | D +37.0 |
| Fremont County | 7,362 | 14,474 | 1,580 | 23,416 | R +30.4 |
| Montrose County | 7,589 | 13,736 | 1,543 | 22,868 | R +26.9 |
| Delta County | 5,606 | 10,621 | 1,175 | 17,402 | R +28.8 |
| Elbert County | 3,761 | 11,486 | 1,105 | 16,352 | R +47.2 |
| Summit County | 11,208 | 3,646 | 1,074 | 15,928 | D +47.5 |
| Routt County | 9,532 | 4,128 | 989 | 14,649 | D +36.9 |
| Teller County | 4,942 | 8,693 | 987 | 14,622 | R +25.6 |
| Montezuma County | 5,455 | 7,304 | 923 | 13,682 | R +13.5 |
| Chaffee County | 7,019 | 4,653 | 845 | 12,517 | D +18.9 |
| Morgan County | 2,968 | 8,134 | 804 | 11,906 | R +43.4 |
| Park County | 4,642 | 5,391 | 727 | 10,760 | R +7.0 |
| Pitkin County | 7,651 | 1,868 | 689 | 10,208 | D +56.6 |
| Gunnison County | 6,424 | 2,843 | 671 | 9,938 | D +36.0 |
| Logan County | 2,029 | 6,836 | 642 | 9,507 | R +50.6 |
| Grand County | 4,421 | 3,760 | 591 | 8,772 | D +7.5 |
| Archuleta County | 3,578 | 4,102 | 556 | 8,236 | R +6.4 |
| Otero County | 2,979 | 4,583 | 548 | 8,110 | R +19.8 |
| Las Animas County | 3,275 | 3,444 | 487 | 7,206 | R +2.4 |
| Alamosa County | 3,158 | 3,245 | 464 | 6,867 | R +1.3 |
| Moffat County | 1,136 | 4,503 | 409 | 6,048 | R +55.7 |
| Clear Creek County | 3,357 | 1,808 | 374 | 5,539 | D +28.0 |
| Rio Grande County | 2,138 | 3,010 | 372 | 5,520 | R +15.8 |
| Prowers County | 1,152 | 3,330 | 324 | 4,806 | R +45.3 |
| San Miguel County | 3,358 | 749 | 297 | 4,404 | D +59.3 |
| Yuma County | 669 | 3,314 | 288 | 4,271 | R +61.9 |
| Huerfano County | 1,859 | 1,924 | 274 | 4,057 | R +1.6 |
| Conejos County | 1,600 | 1,822 | 248 | 3,670 | R +6.0 |
| Gilpin County | 2,085 | 1,235 | 240 | 3,560 | D +23.9 |
| Ouray County | 2,121 | 1,098 | 233 | 3,452 | D +29.6 |
| Lake County | 2,071 | 1,134 | 233 | 3,438 | D +27.3 |
| Custer County | 992 | 2,161 | 228 | 3,381 | R +34.6 |
| Kit Carson County | 519 | 2,580 | 225 | 3,324 | R +62.0 |
| Rio Blanco County | 531 | 2,548 | 223 | 3,302 | R +61.1 |
| Saguache County | 1,704 | 1,193 | 210 | 3,107 | D +16.4 |
| Washington County | 304 | 2,091 | 173 | 2,568 | R +69.6 |
| Lincoln County | 412 | 1,867 | 165 | 2,444 | R +59.5 |
| Bent County | 650 | 1,356 | 145 | 2,151 | R +32.8 |
| Phillips County | 375 | 1,608 | 144 | 2,127 | R +58.0 |
| Baca County | 269 | 1,444 | 123 | 1,836 | R +64.0 |
| Costilla County | 1,130 | 573 | 123 | 1,826 | D +30.5 |
| Crowley County | 473 | 1,212 | 123 | 1,808 | R +40.9 |
| Dolores County | 331 | 920 | 90 | 1,341 | R +43.9 |
| Sedgwick County | 260 | 876 | 82 | 1,218 | R +50.5 |
| Cheyenne County | 97 | 792 | 65 | 954 | R +72.9 |
| Kiowa County | 82 | 639 | 53 | 774 | R +72.0 |
| Jackson County | 147 | 541 | 50 | 738 | R +53.4 |
| Hinsdale County | 232 | 265 | 36 | 533 | R +6.2 |
| Mineral County | 214 | 240 | 32 | 486 | R +5.3 |
| San Juan County | 295 | 121 | 30 | 446 | D +38.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +30.3 and D +11.1. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +22.7 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +21.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +22.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +22.2 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +20.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +30.3 and D +11.1.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Gonzalez | Wiley | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||