2026 forecast · Arizona Treasurer
Nick Mansour is very likely to win Arizona's treasurer race.
Nick Mansour vs Elijah Norton, an open seat. The model has Mansour ahead by 10.3 points, with a 96 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +10.3Polls D +5.8Updated October 22, 2026
Nick Mansour
Democrat
54.6%
1,740,499 projected votes
Elijah Norton
Republican
44.4%
1,413,498 projected votes
96%Mansour
4%Norton
Mansour all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Mansour wins about 96 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Mansour +471,318 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide D +10.3, a 327,000 vote marginNorton +144,318 net votes from 10 counties
Projected statewide vote
3,185,856 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Mansour D | 1,740,499 | 54.6% |
| Elijah Norton R | 1,413,498 | 44.4% |
| Other candidates | 31,858 | 1.0% |
| Total | 3,185,856 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
15 counties| County | Mansour | Norton | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,740,499 | 1,413,499 | 31,858 | 3,185,856 | D +10.3 |
| Maricopa County | 1,092,769 | 814,609 | 19,267 | 1,926,645 | D +14.4 |
| Pima County | 317,556 | 168,509 | 4,910 | 490,975 | D +30.4 |
| Pinal County | 78,709 | 110,817 | 1,915 | 191,441 | R +16.8 |
| Yavapai County | 50,804 | 86,579 | 1,387 | 138,770 | R +25.8 |
| Mohave County | 26,322 | 74,862 | 1,022 | 102,206 | R +47.5 |
| Coconino County | 46,058 | 21,606 | 683 | 68,347 | D +35.8 |
| Yuma County | 30,596 | 33,167 | 644 | 64,407 | R +4.0 |
| Cochise County | 24,664 | 30,874 | 561 | 56,099 | R +11.1 |
| Navajo County | 22,616 | 24,971 | 481 | 48,068 | R +4.9 |
| Apache County | 21,559 | 8,846 | 307 | 30,712 | D +41.4 |
| Gila County | 9,156 | 16,845 | 262 | 26,263 | R +29.3 |
| Santa Cruz County | 12,024 | 5,078 | 172 | 17,274 | D +40.2 |
| Graham County | 4,073 | 10,090 | 143 | 14,306 | R +42.1 |
| La Paz County | 2,251 | 4,818 | 72 | 7,141 | R +36.0 |
| Greenlee County | 1,342 | 1,828 | 32 | 3,202 | R +15.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +17.8 and D +2.8. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +12.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +9.7 |
| Blend of every leg | D +12.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +12.3 |
| With polls, 30% weight | D +10.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +17.8 and D +2.8.
Polls of the race
4 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Mansour | Norton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HighGround Inc. | 400 LV | 2026-10-08 | 44.5 | 35.3 | D +9.2 |
| HighGround Inc. | 400 LV | 2026-08-18 | 41.8 | 39 | D +2.8 |
| Grayhouse (R) | 600 LV | 2026-08-13 | 39 | 41 | R +2.0 |
| Stealth Analytics | 530 LV | 2026-08-13 | 35 | 39 | R +4.0 |