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2026 forecast · Arizona Attorney General

Kris Mayes is all but certain to win Arizona's attorney general race.

Kris Mayes vs Warren Petersen, with Kris Mayes running again. The model has Mayes ahead by 11.3 points, with a 98 percent chance of winning.

Likely DModel D +11.3Polls D +7.7Updated October 22, 2026
Kris Mayes
Democrat
55.1%
1,756,338 projected votes
Warren Petersen
Republican
43.9%
1,397,658 projected votes
98%Mayes
2%Petersen
Mayes all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Mayes wins about 98 of 100

Arizona Attorney General by county

Mohave CountySanta Cruz CountyCoconino CountyLa Paz CountyGila CountyPima CountyGreenlee CountyPinal CountyNavajo CountyYuma CountyMaricopa CountyGraham CountyCochise CountyApache CountyYavapai CountyMaricopaPimaPinalYavapaiMohaveCoconinoYumaCochiseNavajoApacheGilaSanta Cruz
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Maricopa County: Mayes +297,831Pima County: Mayes +153,683Coconino County: Mayes +25,072Apache County: Mayes +12,977Santa Cruz County: Mayes +7,097Mohave County: Petersen +47,720Yavapai County: Petersen +34,425Pinal County: Petersen +30,166Gila County: Petersen +7,439Graham County: Petersen +5,895Cochise County: Petersen +5,632La Paz County: Petersen +2,502Yuma County: Petersen +1,899Navajo County: Petersen +1,853Greenlee County: Petersen +452
Mayes +496,660 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide D +11.3, a 358,677 vote marginPetersen +137,983 net votes from 10 counties

Projected statewide vote

3,185,856 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Kris Mayes D1,756,33855.1%
Warren Petersen R1,397,65843.9%
Other candidates31,8581.0%
Total3,185,856100%

Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.

Projected vote by county

15 counties
CountyMayesPetersenOtherTotalMargin
Statewide1,756,3381,397,66131,8573,185,856D +11.3
Maricopa County1,102,605804,77419,2661,926,645D +15.5
Pima County319,874166,1914,910490,975D +31.3
Pinal County79,680109,8461,915191,441R +15.8
Yavapai County51,47985,9041,387138,770R +24.8
Mohave County26,73274,4521,022102,206R +46.7
Coconino County46,36821,29668368,347D +36.7
Yuma County30,93232,83164464,407R +3.0
Cochise County24,95330,58556156,099R +10.0
Navajo County22,86724,72048148,068R +3.9
Apache County21,6918,71430730,712D +42.3
Gila County9,28116,72026226,263R +28.3
Santa Cruz County12,0995,00217317,274D +41.1
Graham County4,13410,02914314,306R +41.2
La Paz County2,2844,786717,141R +35.0
Greenlee County1,3591,811323,202R +14.1

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Range of outcomes

80 percent of simulations
D +18.0D +4.5D +11.3

80 percent of simulations fall between D +18.0 and D +4.5. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, governorD +12.8
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +13.2
Blend of every legD +13.4
With incumbency and primary unityD +16.7
With polls, 59% weightD +11.3

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +18.0 and D +4.5.

Polls of the race

8 polls
EvenD+10D+20AugSepOctMayes aheadPetersen aheadHighGround Inc., 400, D +15.0, 14 days agoEquis Research, 1,214, Even, 43 days agoNextGen Polling, 1,627, D +3.0, 64 days agoHighGround, Inc., 400, D +8.0, 65 days agoGrayHouse (R), 600, D +1.0, 70 days agoStealth Analytics, 530, D +3.0, 70 days agoNoble Predictive Insights, 923, D +6.0, 70 days agoFabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D) for AARP, 913, D +5.0, 86 days agoD +14.8poll trendD +7.7average
PollsterSampleEndedMayesPetersenMargin
HighGround Inc.400 LV2026-10-0851.536.5D +15.0
Equis Research1,214 RV2026-09-094545R +0.0
NextGen Polling1,627 RV2026-08-193734D +3.0
HighGround, Inc.400 LV2026-08-184840D +8.0
GrayHouse (R)600 LV2026-08-134746D +1.0
Stealth Analytics530 LV2026-08-134138D +3.0
Noble Predictive Insights923 LV2026-08-134438D +6.0
Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D) for AARP913 LV2026-07-284843D +5.0