2026 forecast
South Dakota Senate forecast
Brian Bengs vs Mike Rounds. The model has Rounds ahead by 12.2 points, winning 96 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
66 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +3.5 and R +20.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +6.3 | |
| Zenith Research for Bengs (I) | 600 RV | 11d | R +5.6 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 629 RV | 30d | R +3.8 |
| Impact Research (D) | 500 LV | 53d | R +1.8 |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 500 LV | 92d | R +20.2 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Bengs | Rounds |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 39.5 | 60.5 |
| Women | 52% | 47.9 | 52.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 49.4 | 50.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 44.7 | 55.3 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 40.9 | 59.1 |
| 65+ | 32% | 43.9 | 56.1 |
| RaceWhite | 89% | 40.2 | 59.8 |
| Black | 1% | 87.7 | 12.3 |
| Latino | 2% | 61.2 | 38.8 |
| Asian and other | 8% | 73.0 | 27.0 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 42% | 34.7 | 65.3 |
| White women | 47% | 45.1 | 54.9 |
| Latino men | 1% | 58.8 | 41.2 |
| Latino women | 1% | 63.7 | 36.3 |
| All other races | 8% | 73.0 | 27.0 |