2026 forecast
Oklahoma Senate forecast
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas vs Kevin Hern, an open seat. The model has Hern ahead by 23.8 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
77 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +16.4 and R +31.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +32.2 | |
| CHS & Associates | 500 RV | 64d | R +23.9 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Thomas | Hern |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 30.2 | 60.1 |
| Women | 51% | 36.3 | 54.3 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 35.9 | 54.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 33.9 | 56.7 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 31.3 | 59.2 |
| 65+ | 29% | 33.7 | 56.8 |
| RaceWhite | 74% | 25.7 | 64.9 |
| Black | 7% | 72.6 | 18.3 |
| Latino | 6% | 46.4 | 44.2 |
| Asian and other | 13% | 49.3 | 39.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 35% | 21.3 | 69.5 |
| White women | 39% | 29.7 | 60.8 |
| Black men | 3% | 69.0 | 21.8 |
| Black women | 4% | 76.0 | 14.9 |
| Latino men | 3% | 44.2 | 46.0 |
| Latino women | 3% | 48.8 | 42.2 |
| All other races | 13% | 49.3 | 39.7 |