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25 DAYS OUT
SC SenGraham R +0.8NE SenOsborn I +1.2KS GovMasterson R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.3KS SenHamilton D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NV GovLombardo R +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.5TX SenTalarico D +2.7GA GovBottoms D +2.9FL SenMoody R +3.1OH GovActon D +3.9ME SenJackson D +4.0OH SenBrown D +4.4WI GovCrowley D +5.2
2026 forecast

New York Governor forecast

Kathy Hochul vs Bruce Blakeman. The model has Hochul ahead by 13.9 points, winning 99 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Safe DModel D +13.9Polls D +12.1Updated October 9, 2026

County simulation

62 counties
D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

Every simulated outcome

10,000 sims
D +55.0: 1 simulationsD +52.9: 0 simulationsD +50.8: 0 simulationsD +48.7: 0 simulationsD +46.6: 0 simulationsD +44.5: 0 simulationsD +42.4: 0 simulationsD +40.3: 0 simulationsD +38.2: 1 simulationsD +36.0: 3 simulationsD +34.0: 5 simulationsD +31.8: 6 simulationsD +29.7: 20 simulationsD +27.6: 72 simulationsD +25.5: 152 simulationsD +23.4: 325 simulationsD +21.3: 608 simulationsD +19.2: 984 simulationsD +17.1: 1282 simulationsD +15.1: 1557 simulationsD +12.9: 1469 simulationsD +10.8: 1280 simulationsD +8.7: 960 simulationsD +6.6: 570 simulationsD +4.5: 318 simulationsD +2.5: 209 simulationsD +0.3: 98 simulationsR +1.8: 36 simulationsR +3.9: 18 simulationsR +6.0: 7 simulationsR +8.1: 5 simulationsR +10.2: 4 simulationsR +12.3: 4 simulationsR +14.3: 0 simulationsR +16.5: 0 simulationsR +18.6: 2 simulationsR +20.7: 2 simulationsR +22.8: 0 simulationsR +24.8: 0 simulationsR +27.0: 2 simulationsD +56.0R +28.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +20.8 and D +6.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
OnPoint averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +12.1
Emerson College/PIX11900 LV4dD +13.1
Marist College1,361 RV5dD +8.5
co/efficient (R)1,046 LV14dD +10.7
Quinnipiac University1,026 LV19dD +18.5
Siena College1,144 LV22dD +8.7
McLaughlin & Associates (R)800 LV39dD +7.3
Concord Public Opinion Partners505 LV49dD +14.7
Siena College811 LV64dD +9.7
Red Oak Strategic (R)2,000 RV89dD +6.9
co/efficient (R)1,085 LV99dD +9.6
Siena College1,120 RV108dD +20.0
Pollfinity Research229 RV117dD +10.7
Siena College802 RV254dD +26.0
John Zogby Strategies844 LV274dD +13.9
Siena College801 RV301dD +25.0
J.L. Partners500 LV333dD +12.0
Siena College800 RV470dD +25.0
GrayHouse600 RV533dD +8.7

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareHochulBlakeman
GenderMen48%51.546.9
Women52%60.438.0
Age18 to 2915%56.142.2
30 to 4422%53.844.7
45 to 6434%55.343.1
65+30%58.939.5
RaceWhite65%45.153.2
Black13%86.312.3
Latino13%68.330.4
Asian and other9%74.324.1
Race and genderWhite men30%38.060.3
White women35%51.347.0
Black men6%84.614.1
Black women7%87.910.8
Latino men7%66.032.7
Latino women6%70.728.0
All other races9%74.324.1